FiveThirtyEight Update: GOP still slight favorite to win Senate

[JerryArkansas]

I love how when Nate Silver predicts every state right in the 2012 election and forecasts an almost inevitable Democratic majority for decades to come he's an Atlas folk hero, but now that he's using the same methodologies to arrive at the conclusion of a GOP Senate come 2015 he's now unreliable or along the lines of any other Sabato or Rothenburg type.

Nice move, Atlas.  Nice move.

And I can't wait to see the waterworks here when the GOP gets to 51 on election night.

That's not true Del Tachi. He was quite inaccurate for the 2012 senate elections.

By two seats...

He predicted Berg would win: 95% of the chances.

When everyone, even veteran political watchers said the same thing.  She won under the radar.  All of the factors were against her.  You can't hit him for not calling an upset.

[JerryArkansas]

Muon,
When you consider a race is: 95% chance to win. If finally, the candidate manages to lose by 1 point without any scandal. I'm sorry, this is inaccurate.

He didn't and you aren't considering the most important factor, he didn't campaign hard for the race.  Everyone, including him thought he would win, so he didn't campaign hard.  And the 95%, he was just 95% sure of the win, he thought she had a chance to win.  Margin is no factor in that.

So stop being but hurt.  The man knows what he is doing.  Everyone gets things wrong.  Will he get a race wrong this year, yeah he will.  Everyone will.  That doesn't mean that his predictions weren't right and aren't good. 

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He still predicted there controll.  He got only two wrong.  I don't see the problem.  His numbers are good.  You are just mad because he is predicting rep controll now.   

Also, over the past three election cycles, they have only gotten 5% of senate races wrong.

[JerryArkansas]

Again people, Silver didn't get any states "wrong" in 2012. There are supposed to be occasional upsets, unless he gives a candidate exactly 100.00% chance of winning. The fact that Heitkamp is the only candidate with a single-digit probability on election day to win actually makes his model look better than if no one ever had.

Thank you Harry, you said it better that I could have.