CNN/ORC National: Clinton leads by 7 and 5

[Seriously?]

D+5 with a slightly more I survey than the rest of the polls. Poll suggests 2012 Obama electorate.

[Seriously?]

D+5 with a slightly more I survey than the rest of the polls. Poll suggests 2012 Obama electorate.

That's what I been saying lol. This election really reminds me of 2012.

I was trying to get an idea of what the electorate is as the pollsters are finding. Everything over the weekend suggests somewhere between D+5 and D+8 with RV.

CNN/ORC was the only one with a ton of Indys (over 40%). Just notating and archiving. Not passing any judgments.

[Seriously?]

Before we go down that road, a reminder (with the exception or Rasmussen) polls don't 'model' Party ID, because (unlike demographics) it is a fluid thing and also not the same as party registration.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/unskewed-polls_b_1924293.html

That's not exactly true. If you look at the methodology of the CBS poll, they reweighed to get to their sample. The sample they got was slightly more Republican before they settled on a D+5

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-going-into-conventions-cbsnyt-poll/

(If you scroll down to the bottom of the Scribd document, it clearly shows how they reweighed the sample. As always, the devil is in the details.)

I think the Marist state polls begin with a D/R/I sample from either the SoS or exit poll numbers from 2012 cross-referencing the voter rolls and get their reconstituted self-identifieds from there in the states that have registered D and Rs.

The rest of these pollsters do not, unless otherwise stated.

[Seriously?]

I am not obsessing over D/R/I to skew or unskew anything.

My argument is simple: If the election ends up with a D+5 sample, Hillary! wins. If the consensus gets the electorate to around D+2 or D+3, Trump wins. It's really that simple. I am not concerned as much with breakdowns for sub-groups, etc. as they roll into that number at the end of the day.

[Seriously?]

Johnson's still not to the magical 15% that will get him into the debates, but it's starting to look plausible, at least.

Not even slightly plausible.

Why not? 2% short in a 4-way poll (3-way polls are usually much more generous) doesn't signal that it's plausible to you? The CPD uses the most recent polls of 5 polling organizations, so the support doesn't even have to be sustained over a long period.

Base fractures should heal over the next few weeks with the conventions. I'd expect the protest numbers that are going to Johnson to go down on both sides.