VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO)

[Seriously?]

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.

Romney pretty much maxed out the white working class vote in the T and lost the state by 5 points. Trump is going to get beaten far worse in the Philly burbs than Romney

The assumption here is that Virginia will be slightly more Democrat (+1%) than in 2008 and 2012 and Colorado would be on par roughly with the 2012 turnout numbers (not 2008 or 2004, which trended way more Republican).

This would be in line with a roughly Hillary! +6 national result. Not implausible if one takes the Fox National poll numbers at face value.

[Seriously?]

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.

Trump has a chance in PA, but a +6 poll for him doesn't make him favored (especially since another poll shows Hillary up 9.) Also, you really don't think Kasich would have a chance there?

Kasich doesn't have the economic message that resonates with normally Dem voting working class whites and blacks.

I am tired of this one-state Kasich should be our nominee meme from the left/#nevertrump fools. No, he shouldn't. He'd effectively be defined by the Democrats as the fat cat Lehman Brothers exec in the 2008 bailout.

[Seriously?]

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.

Romney pretty much maxed out the white working class vote in the T and lost the state by 5 points. Trump is going to get beaten far worse in the Philly burbs than Romney

The assumption here is that Virginia will be slightly more Democrat (+1%) than in 2008 and 2012 and Colorado would be on par roughly with the 2012 turnout numbers (not 2008 or 2004, which trended way more Republican).

This would be in line with a roughly Hillary! +6 national result. Not implausible if one takes the Fox National poll numbers at face value.

Trump has no chance at PA if the national electorate is Clinton +6. He has to be winning nationally to carry PA. GWB with higher approval ratings and the power of incumbency won nationally by 2.5% and lost PA by 2.5% in 2004. The electorate in that state is pretty static

Agreed on that. There are other states that would fall before PA would in that scenario though and PA would be the cherry on top.

[Seriously?]

Trump has no chance at PA if the national electorate is Clinton +6. He has to be winning nationally to carry PA. GWB with higher approval ratings and the power of incumbency won nationally by 2.5% and lost PA by 2.5% in 2004. The electorate in that state is pretty static

Due to his unique appeal, there is no need for Trump to be leading by any margin, though I agree that a +6 Clinton margin would make it difficult to imagine him winning PA.

This is the PA map in 2012 where Obama beat Romney by 5:



Where is Trump going to improve on Romney in the WWC areas? Romney already won those areas decisively 4 years ago. The area that Trump has to do better is the Philly suburbs and he's uniquely appalling there. Remember the Philly suburbs are largely educated and more diverse than the WWC T and Western PA

Lucerne County/Scranton area and the bedroom communities of The NYC exurbs in the Poconos would be my guess.

Plus, the coal areas of Western PA where Hillary! shilling for her lefty environmentalist friends stating she wants to put coal miners out of work will be shown on TV over and over and over again.

[Seriously?]

Agreed on that. There are other states that would fall before PA would in that scenario though and PA would be the cherry on top.

Which ones?

Shift the 2012 map by 5 points. FL, OH and likely VA along with a good probability of CO, IA and NH, assuming a uniform shift.

[Seriously?]

Agreed on that. There are other states that would fall before PA would in that scenario though and PA would be the cherry on top.

Which ones?

Shift the 2012 map by 5 points. FL, OH and likely VA along with a good probability of CO, IA and NH, assuming a uniform shift.

Polls do not back this up at all.

The polls are also modeling a Clinton lead right now. You'd have to assume a Trump lead to get there, which is not based on the race's narrative at the moment and note my other assumption: a uniform shift from 2012.

There really aren't a ton of data points out there right now and some of these pollsters are stuck on RV. Give me more data and I'd agree with you, but as of right now, it's premature to assume any macro regional or micro state-wide shifts.