Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed (user search)
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  Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed (search mode)
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Author Topic: Surprise: Trump driving Asians into the Democratic Party at breakneck speed  (Read 1647 times)
Seriously?
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Posts: 3,029
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« on: June 02, 2016, 03:42:09 PM »

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.
This is much ado about nothing. Not just that, Asians make up what? 2-3% of the voting electorate? Does this really matter much?

There are seven states where Asians comprise of 5%+ of Asian voting-eligible population.

Alaska is the only Republican state. (not going anywhere).

Nevada is the only tossup state where the Asian vote may make a difference.

The other states: CA, NJ, NY, HI and WA, barring a major catastrophe by Hillary!, are going Democrat anyway.
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Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2016, 10:20:43 AM »

Obama won Asians 73/26. Them voting Dem is nothing new.
This is much ado about nothing. Not just that, Asians make up what? 2-3% of the voting electorate? Does this really matter much?

There are seven states where Asians comprise of 5%+ of Asian voting-eligible population.

Alaska is the only Republican state. (not going anywhere).

Nevada is the only tossup state where the Asian vote may make a difference.

The other states: CA, NJ, NY, HI and WA, barring a major catastrophe by Hillary!, are going Democrat anyway.

Asians are also 5%+ of the population in swing-state Virginia, primarily concentrated in Northern VA.

But the problem for the Republican Party is less the Asian vote in isolation and more the aggregate effect.  Black, Latino, Asian, LGBT and Jewish voters were about 33% of the electorate in 2012 and Democrats won them by overwhelming margins.  In 2016, the total sum of these voters is likely to be around 36% of the electorate, as the Latino, Asian and LGBT demographics have been growing.  

The Republican Party has not done anything to repair relations with these groups since 2012 and in most cases the GOP image has become much worse.  Only doing well with straight white Christian voters with no college degree is not a recipe for success at the presidential level.


Asians may be at 5% in Virginia, however, when you take into account their voter participation share, it's likely in the 4% range, which in any event, does not make the biggest of differences if the breakdown is 76/24 (Romney) or 90/10 in a Trump "nightmare" scenario.

Around the fringes, it does not matter much mathematically.
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Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2016, 01:09:05 AM »

Asians may be at 5% in Virginia, however, when you take into account their voter participation share, it's likely in the 4% range, which in any event, does not make the biggest of differences if the breakdown is 76/24 (Romney) or 90/10 in a Trump "nightmare" scenario.

Around the fringes, it does not matter much mathematically.

Yes, except for the fact that VA is likely to be one of the closest/tipping point states. So anything that shifts the margins, even a fraction of percentage points, has a disproportionate impact on the overall electoral college outcome. That's true whether it's the Asian vote or McAuliffe's reforms to felon disenfranchisement.
At the end of the day, if the Dems are lucky, you're probably talking between 10K and 20K of a total vote shift. And if you look at that study to begin with, it seems like the Asian number voting Republican will between 20-35%. The rest of the "shift" is Indies identifying with the Democrats. Too much is being made about a voting block that's really too small to make that much of an impact.
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