Romney's strategy a little too cute?? (user search)
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  Romney's strategy a little too cute?? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Romney's strategy a little too cute??  (Read 1768 times)
Seriously?
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Posts: 3,029
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« on: November 02, 2012, 02:59:14 AM »
« edited: November 02, 2012, 03:09:15 AM by Seriously? »

High-risk, high-reward hail marry pass strategy. Hope that GOTV/momentum/magic can keep FL, CO, VA, NC in line and that a huge final effort can flip PA, MN, and/or MI to make up for OH, which isn't budging.
I don't know why the Democrats on this board insist that Ohio is anything other than completely and entirely in play. The state polling data suggests a slight Obama lead, but obviously that lead is fluid.

If Ohio were "in the bag" for Obama, the President wouldn't basically be camping there over the weekend. The Obama internals in Wisconsin must also be soft, because Obama is making a pair of trips there over the last five days.

Yes, PA, MN and MI are reach states for Romney. But the Romney camp and the Romney aligned PACs have plenty of money to reach these states. The strategy was to hold onto this money for a last minute assault, which will go largely unanswered by the Obama camp.

The foray by Ryan into MN is a two-fer, it's also covers the NW Wisconsin media market.

The PA stop by Romney is a bit of a head scratcher, because Pittsburgh would seemingly be the better suited stop that could leak a bit into Eastern OH. So a stop in the Philly suburbs surprised me a bit.

Under the Romney strategy, the election in PA will be won (if it can be won) with coal votes in Western PA, those bitter gun and bible clingers in the center of the state and middle and upper class suburban voters in both the Pittsburgh and Philly markets

At the end of the day, this campaign stop is designed to set a narrative in the vapid lamestream press that Romney is on the offensive while Obama is defending some crucial battelground states. Who knows if it will have the intended affect. But I can't fault the strategy.
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Seriously?
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2012, 03:46:54 AM »

Obama has a durable lead of at least 2-3% in the polling. Ohio has been by far the most polled state in the country. It's a clear lean Obama state. I guess it's technically in play, but Obama is strongly favored there.

There's absolutely no incentive for him to do anything but camp out in Ohio (and Wisconsin; Nevada has already mostly voted and is entirely GOTV now). It doesn't matter if he wins with 270 votes or 300-something, a win is a win. OH + WI + NV = election is over.
Still waiting for a number for you on what you think it's going to take with the early vote for Obama to win in Nevada. Is there a magic number in your mind for Clark County? Or an over padded edge throughout the state that will be comfortable enough for an Obama win.

Historically, will a 60-65K vote lead in Clark and a 30-40K lead statewide be enough if Romney leads I by 5-10%?
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