NV-SurveyUSA: Obama+4

[Seriously?]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

[Seriously?]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

Dude, seriously? Nevada is gone for the GOP

I don't know how you can say a state that's within 4% is "gone" at this point. If it were "gone," Paul Ryan wouldn't be making a campaign stop in Reno today and Barack Obama would not be campaigning in Nevada as well.

It's leaning Obama, yes. I am not convinced that given the ACTUAL early vote data that it's a slam dunk and nailed down yet. Huge difference.

[Seriously?]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

Dude, seriously? Nevada is gone for the GOP

I don't know how you can say a state that's within 4% is "gone" at this point. If it were "gone," Paul Ryan wouldn't be making a campaign stop in Reno today and Barack Obama would not be campaigning in Nevada as well.

It's leaning Obama, yes. I am not convinced that given the ACTUAL early vote data that it's a slam dunk and nailed down yet. Huge difference.

Dude, seriously?

Do you want to address the substance of my comment?

If the race is "gone," why are both Ryan and Obama campaigning there today? Explain that please.

The data shows a lean Obama, but not a slam dunk yet. That's why. Turnout could determine who wins Nevada at the end of the day.