NY Long Island, Sienna College Romney +2

[Seriously?]

47-45

Good poll for romney if he can win Long Island he's doing really well in the suburbs.

The New York City suburbs nonetheless that slightly trend Democrat.

Rural goes Republican, Cities go Democrat. Suburbs decide elections.

[Seriously?]

Obama didn't really do all that well on LI last time around and didnt campaign in NY in the primary or general. Dont think its anything more than the national swing.

Obama won Nassau 53-47 and Suffolk 52-47. The poll suggests a R+7 or R+8 swing, affirming Gallup's take on the movement of the electorate.

[Seriously?]

I wonder what region of the state is swinging towards him then? Since his numbers in New York seem to be holding steady since 2008.

Well, for starters, it a uni poll. So who knows how accurate it is, especially since the statewide polls are basically static from 2008. It does fit into the R+7 or R+8 narrative that Gallup is painting.

If there's any gain, it would have to be with minority groups in New York City. The Northern burbs would probably mirror LI and I can't see upstate tilting more Obama than 2008. It's not like business is booming in upstate NY.