The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

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Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

It's very dangerous to put a ton of stock in a statistically insignificant subsample like that. What's the MOE on the subgroup? I doubt given the actual numbers in Iowa (D/R/I) breakdown that J.J. has posted here (44/32/24) that those 64/35 numbers are accurate. If so, only 3% of those I votes are going Romney.

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Ohio Democrats who voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 530,813
Change from 2008: -181,275

Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot: 448,357
Change from 2008: +75,858

Republican swing from 2008: 257,133
Obama's 2008 margin of victory: 262,224

Come on dude, I explained this a few pages ago. Those numbers are meaningless.

I wouldn't call those numbers "meaningless," just not as meaningful as other states due to the primary system in Ohio.

With that said, the true comparison to measure enthusiasm in Ohio would be to compare counties. Right now, Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is lagging from '08. That's the D's main stronghold.

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Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

What's the magic number in your mind for Obama to pull off a victory in Nevada on Election Day?

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Dems up to a 55k lead in Clark County after today. With two days of early voting left, they should break 60k.

What's the magic number in your mind for Obama to pull off a victory in Nevada on Election Day?

With this number and Reid's turnout machine coming out to play, I think Obama's got this state in the bag.

My calculations have the Democrat margin somewhere between 25,000 and 35,000 votes through 10/30 (depending on how you apportion the independents). Is that an insurmountable number for the Republicans to overcome historically on Election Day?

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Does anybody know how Arizona & Texas is doing with early voting?  I'd assume it has a good turnout for the GOP in both states.

There's just info on Maricopa Co. for AZ. Tx just releases its 15 largest cities. I don't have th expertise to contrast and compare. Here's the raw data.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

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Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

What does weekend early voting have to do with depressed turnout during the week? If Obama's voters were motivated, they'd be voting MORE not LESS in Obamaphone country during the week to compensate.

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Confirmed!

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Nevada is gone for Romney. The question is whether or not it's gone for Heller.

I suspect you're ultimately right in the end, however, it's closer than you think. Modeling directly from the SUSA poll, assuming an R+3 with the crossover vote and an R+7 with Independents, Obama is ahead by somewhere between 8,000-13,000 votes statewide through Thursday.

Romney would have to take election day by two points (R+2) to overcome that edge. Doable, but increasingly unlikely under SUSA's analysis of R+1 on Election Day.

My guess is that it will move up to R+3 when the last Clark numbers cross into the SoS database after I plug them into my spreadsheet tomorrow morning. Also keep in mind that absentees can still flow in, which favor R+5 on average, but those will probably be deminimus along the fringes as to the final needed number for Romney.

Note: that's all back of the envelope math right now and not modeled to reflect the third party vote. Once Early Voting is in the books, I'll refine it a bit, add the third parties and also add some modeling for undecideds.

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Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

What does weekend early voting have to do with depressed turnout during the week? If Obama's voters were motivated, they'd be voting MORE not LESS in Obamaphone country during the week to compensate.

They have jobs.

I don't care how many jobs you have. Requesting an absentee is easy. Two weeks or whatever the period was in Ohio (15 days?) is more than enough time to vote early. I have no sympathy for either candidate if they can't get out the vote in this time frame.

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Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

That's because it's NOT suppression. Early voting is an expanse of the right to vote by the individual states. The states have the right to set the places and manner of the election, so long as the regular vote is scheduled for the first Tuesday in November.

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Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

What's your final prediction? Mine is Obama +4.

Back of the envelope math using SUSA as a guide suggests about at 12,000 lead for Obama in the early vote. Romney would have to go somewhere between +4 and +5 with the remaining absentees and early votes to eke out a win there. Guess is Obama takes it, but more like by +2 or +3.