Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hnv1]

Staging a power play just before December and the winter where the Germans and the EU would be paralysed from responding fearing the energy prices skyrocketing is text book Putin

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1466044586774740992?s=21

Definitely happening now. I’ll put good money on a smash and grab before Boxing Day

[Hnv1]

January 18 could be a historic date for an invasion...January 18 1654

[Hnv1]

I have money on ground action starting before novy god, come on speed things up Putin.

[Hnv1]

The head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said that the chemical weapons in possession of Kiev were packed in readiness to be dropped from drones.

According to NM DNR, the first batch of chemical weapons arrived in Ukraine on American planes in October.

https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1474068458283360260?s=20

There is absolutely no chance Biden's administration would sanction the sell or use of chemical weapons. Seems BS

[Hnv1]

Ukraine should form an International Legion like Finland did in the 1930s.

Neo Nazis from all over Europe to travel unprepared and die in actual battle? Yeah I’m all for

[Hnv1]

Why would Russia attack Kiev directly? They definitely don’t have the manpower to take this large metro. If this is somehow true I suspect it is only meant to stretch Ukrainian forces thin

[Hnv1]

Why would Russia attack Kiev directly? They definitely don’t have the manpower to take this large metro. If this is somehow true I suspect it is only meant to stretch Ukrainian forces thin

The idea is probably to encircle and cut off Kyiv from the rest of the country, then dictate terms.

That's a massive 3mil plus metro area full of hostile denizens and surrounded by hostiles. To encircle Kiev effectively would require manpower in proportions we hadn't seen in decades, a field army at least. The logistics would be a headache and I really don't think the Russian army is capable of this right now.

most likely its a move to draw Ukrainian forces west and scare the EU a bit

[Hnv1]

"Stop The War" has long been a joke group tbf.

The last Labour leader was its chairman...

Well he was considered by large segments of his own party as an utter joke

[Hnv1]

Lol at anyone who thinks 30 Russian battalions minis can encircle Kiev. With the Dnieper cutting them down the middle and their entire western flank open to Ukrainian offensive.

I’m quite happy to see the inevitable poor performance by the Russian paper tiger

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496731416272457732

These are not accurate rockets, but they cause a lot of damage over a wide area.

Since when does the Ukraine operate American MLRS?

[Hnv1]

Why are the Ukrainians so badly spread at the northern border? no contact with Russian columns moving in

[Hnv1]

Why are the Ukrainians so badly spread at the northern border? no contact with Russian columns moving in

From Poland east to Luhansk, Ukraine's northern border with Belarus and Russia is 1,200 kilometers. That's nearly impossible to defend everywhere when you're also facing attack from the east and south.

I disagree. there are natural choke points and with good planning, you can use infantry to block most important routes. the Ukraine does not lack in menpower

[Hnv1]

There are so little good factual reports on what's happening on the ground. It seems the Ukrainian are putting up a decent fight in the East but it's far from obvious what's happening in Kherson, Mariupol, Khrakov and the rest of the big cities

[Hnv1]

It doesn't seem like the Russian offensive in Luhansk is going that well...
No troops in Mariupol either.

On the other hand it looks like Kherson is being taken

[Hnv1]

Seems like Ukraine is folding insanely quickly? What even is the plan on the Ukranian side? I understand a war would almost certainly be lost long term but I don't think anyone expected Ukraine to fold this fast?

I don't understand why people deduce this from the sparse information we have.

Part for Kherson the Russian advance hardly looks successful to me. Mariupol is still standing and after several hours of intense battles, territorial gains in the east are minimal. As the Khrakov and Kiev, the Ukrainians couldn't defend them fighting in an open field with Russian air superiority. But that doesn't mean Russia has this in the bag

This is an old-school war, and so early into it people are jumping into too many conclusion.

[Hnv1]

Reports that Kherson has officially fallen. Any confirmation?

[Hnv1]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

Fails according to what standards? it's clear there will be territorial gains, but Putin didn't indicate any clear goals here

[Hnv1]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

Fails according to what standards? it's clear there will be territorial gains, but Putin didn't indicate any clear goals here

The Ukranians fend off the invasion and halt regime change?

Did Putin ever outright said he was aiming for it? No. Hence he can spin any territorial gain as a victory back home

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

The thing is, it is possible that the Ukrainians starting to prepare earlier may just have meant Putin attacked earlier before they had had the chance to do what you are suggesting. And, at least so far, the Russians are not rolling over them, so things could evidently have been worse.

They could have at least drafted some reservists earlier without making a fuss. I think they thought that the attack would only be in the east so they bulked up there and hardly gave any thought to the rest of the country.
Look anyone who served in a military knows that permanent bases were supposed to be evacuated to emergency sight weeks ago. But the first strike yesterday took posts in Odessa and the west by surprise? that's gross negligence

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

So you ambush the roads and use engineers to funnel the enemy into choke points. I'm not saying they should have met them head-on, but they definitely look ill-prepared part for in the Donbass.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

[Hnv1]

I can't help but feel that given almost 90 days of preparation the Ukraine could have made plans to turn the road to Kiev a bigger hardship than it is. A swarm of small AT units and some artillery support could have slowed the Russians down significantly.
Or in Kherson for that matter where the Russians moving out of Crimean moved almost 80km with no resistance.


It seems the Donbass (which is awfully quite today) is the only place the Ukrainians had any solid defence plan

You can't really defend the southern parts of Kherson. It's flat, low lying and vulnerable to air-sea bombardment. When you are on the weaker side you have to choose your battlefields wisely.

What's actually going on in the Donbass? I thought Mariupol would come under attack already

Ukrainian units facing the Donbass separatists are experienced, well dug in and at full strength. Russian attacks there have made no significant breakthroughs.

So what's the Russian game plan here? come from Crimean and Khrakov and take them from behind?

So far today the news from the area was sparse part the Ukrainian strike on the Russian air base

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/DerHaidWachst/status/1497189860154744852?s=20&t=nOSEAoMc...

The Chechen are coming. I guess Putin is displeased by the performance of his regulars.

Also it seems Melitopol has fallen

[Hnv1]

Not sure how credible the map is. But it doesn't look like the Russian army is performing all that well