Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Interesting study. Voters of all (Jewish) parties were sampled on two scales: where do they position themselves left (0) to right (10), and love for Bibi with hate (0) and total love (10). The red is distribution of the first, the blueish of the second.

Likud obviously really love Bibi, but so do Shas, who are also the most right-wing by identification.

[Hnv1]

Interesting study. Voters of all (Jewish) parties were sampled on two scales: where do they position themselves left (0) to right (10), and love for Bibi with hate (0) and total love (10). The red is distribution of the first, the blueish of the second.

Likud obviously really love Bibi, but so do Shas, who are also the most right-wing by identification.

Super fascinating! Where does the graph come from?

An Israeli researcher named Noam Gidron I believe


The presidential elections deadline is over, only 2 contenders with Herzog and Miriam Peretz (some bereaved annoying mother). Herzog is expected to win

[Hnv1]

Presidential elections June 2nd:
Isaac "Boojie" Herzog - former leader of the Labour Party (and the Zionist Union RIP), former Minister, former MK, current chairman of the Jewish Agency, and son of former president Haim (Vivian) Herzog.
Miriam Peretz - bereaved mother (two sons KIA), former school headmaster, and a public figure for "unity within". Settler

Herzog got 27 signatures from all Jewish parties in the Knesset. Apparent front runner and popular among his former colleagues. Peretz got exactly 10 signatures, 3 from Likud, 1 B&W, 2 Shas, 2 Yamina, 3 Smotric. The MKs don't really fancy her but she has public support for her apparent lack of political agenda.

Secret ballots in the house. If one of them gets a majority of 61 in the first round he wins (which is likely as there are only two contenders this time). Otherwise, this goes to a second round where the winner needs a simple majority. Repeated votes in case of a tie until we have a winner.
The winner then takes an oath followed by calls of "hail to the president" by members of the house (though these calls are growing faint every new cycle...)

[Hnv1]

Miriam Peretz - bereaved mother (two sons KIA), former school headmaster, and a public figure for "unity within". Settler

Bit of a weird choice, no? Never been an MK, no political experience?

Bereaved mother, looking for perpetual fake unity? It's the stuff the public loves regardless of her (lack of) qualifications for the job.
I highly doubt she'll win this, if she had any sense she'll drop out before embarrassing herself at the vote like others did. She wouldn't get one vote like Dan Shechtman, but I doubt she'll get more than 25.

[Hnv1]

Lapid is signing coalition agreements with his bloc. I'm not sure what he hopes to accomplish by this, perhaps pressure Bennett with a take it or leave it offer. still wouldn't square the circle. Or perhaps an election campaign for a future government.

Regardless, there might be an attempt to pass a bill dissolving the house before Lapid's mandate is over preventing any chance Bibi will get it again. Slim chances as dissolving the Knesset before would require 61 supporters.

[Hnv1]

Levine can delay the vote of confidence for up to 7 days meanwhile Likud will pressure whoever they can to vote against/disappear in the vote. If Lapid and Bennett aren’t cautious this could be a scandalous vote like 1990.
They needs safety margin with at least Taal abstaining. Hadash will vote against due to Bennett, and Balad will vote against because it’s Balad.
So that’s 52+4+1 (Shikli from Yamina voting against). That’s 57 against and the swearing in requires 58. If another one defects it’s suddenly 59 for confidence and so on.

If I were Lapid I’d have people follow Shaked 24/7 that hag.

[Hnv1]

Levine can delay the vote of confidence for up to 7 days meanwhile Likud will pressure whoever they can to vote against/disappear in the vote. If Lapid and Bennett aren’t cautious this could be a scandalous vote like 1990.
They needs safety margin with at least Taal abstaining. Hadash will vote against due to Bennett, and Balad will vote against because it’s Balad.
So that’s 52+4+1 (Shikli from Yamina voting against). That’s 57 against and the swearing in requires 58. If another one defects it’s suddenly 59 for confidence and so on.

If I were Lapid I’d have people follow Shaked 24/7 that hag.

Gotta talk to Ayman Odeh to get him to disappear during the vote imo.

Doubt it. Odeh May very well like to, but the rest of the faction and the pressure from the party bosses to vote against would be massive. Cassif and Touma Saliman are fighting the radical battle with Balad.

The age old schism within Hadash between the Tankies and the Pragmatists usually ends with the tankies winning.

[Hnv1]

To me, this seems like a fairly noticeable ideological shift for Hadash - the "Tankie" party bosses used to order everyome to sing Hatikvah and banned the Palestinian flag. It does seem that they have been pushed closer to Balad over the past 10 years. How has their voting base changed over this time? What role does the increasing integration of Palestinian woman in the workplace have?

That was Maki, a different party. Hadash is decedent from the very anti Zionist Rakah.
Anyhow, it’s mainly a play for the young educated voters (Arab) who are much much more nationalist than the old guard.


Rumours Lapid will announce the government on Monday

[Hnv1]

To me, this seems like a fairly noticeable ideological shift for Hadash - the "Tankie" party bosses used to order everyome to sing Hatikvah and banned the Palestinian flag. It does seem that they have been pushed closer to Balad over the past 10 years. How has their voting base changed over this time? What role does the increasing integration of Palestinian woman in the workplace have?

That was Maki, a different party. Hadash is decedent from the very anti Zionist Rakah.
Anyhow, it’s mainly a play for the young educated voters (Arab) who are much much more nationalist than the old guard.


Rumours Lapid will announce the government on Monday

From Khamsim in 1990

Following clashes with police in Nazareth on Land Day 1988, local Pales­tinian-Arab leaders decided to move the 1989 Galilee protests to villages to the north, with a march from Sakhnin to Deir Hana for a rally there. As Sakhnin had been the site of the original 1976 killings, certainly this decision had a strong symbolic significance. Yet it can also be seen as a pre-emptive move by the local leadership, particularly the Israeli Com­munist Party (Rakah), the leading electoral force among Palestinian-Arab citizens within Israel. An unstated aim was to limit any public confrontation with the Israeli authorities, particularly around display of the Palestinian flag.

Not only is such display illegal, but it challenges Rakah’s policy of dis­playing the Israeli flag ‒ and even singing “Hatikvah”, the Zionist national anthem. The conflict with many Palestinian-Arab citizens arises from the party’s insistence that they already have a country, Israel. According to Nazareth lawyer ‘Aziz Shehadeh, Rakah tries to stop youths from rais­ing the Palestinian flag as “part of its deal with the Establishment, to gain legitimation in Jewish society”. As put more bluntly by ‘Ali Jedda, of the Alternative Information Centre (Jerusalem), no police were needed at Deir Hana because “Rakah were the border police” (interview with the author, Spring 1989). His comparison refers, of course, less to physical repression than to an ideological policing of Israeli versus Palestinian national loyalty.

What precisely is the difference between a Balad voter and a Hadash voter? Nationalism? Is there a difference among economic sectors of the Palestinians - ie do construction workers vote different from pharmacists?

That was their communist stance against flags in general no where pro Zionism. I don’t know where the quote is from but there absolutely no way Hadash waved an Israeli flag and sang the anthem. No way. Maybe in the early fifties before the split, no way in the 80s.

Balad tend to be slightly more Muslim and less socialist. Also more in line with the greater Arab world.

Construction workers if they vote all will probably vote Ra’am or Ta’al, or Hadash/Balad if there’s any family connection or something. Arab voting patterns are really weird to describe, it’s clan first, then religion.

[Hnv1]

Bibi offering triple rotation. Desperate

[Hnv1]

To me, this seems like a fairly noticeable ideological shift for Hadash - the "Tankie" party bosses used to order everyome to sing Hatikvah and banned the Palestinian flag. It does seem that they have been pushed closer to Balad over the past 10 years. How has their voting base changed over this time? What role does the increasing integration of Palestinian woman in the workplace have?

That was Maki, a different party. Hadash is decedent from the very anti Zionist Rakah.
Anyhow, it’s mainly a play for the young educated voters (Arab) who are much much more nationalist than the old guard.


Rumours Lapid will announce the government on Monday

From Khamsim in 1990

Following clashes with police in Nazareth on Land Day 1988, local Pales­tinian-Arab leaders decided to move the 1989 Galilee protests to villages to the north, with a march from Sakhnin to Deir Hana for a rally there. As Sakhnin had been the site of the original 1976 killings, certainly this decision had a strong symbolic significance. Yet it can also be seen as a pre-emptive move by the local leadership, particularly the Israeli Com­munist Party (Rakah), the leading electoral force among Palestinian-Arab citizens within Israel. An unstated aim was to limit any public confrontation with the Israeli authorities, particularly around display of the Palestinian flag.

Not only is such display illegal, but it challenges Rakah’s policy of dis­playing the Israeli flag ‒ and even singing “Hatikvah”, the Zionist national anthem. The conflict with many Palestinian-Arab citizens arises from the party’s insistence that they already have a country, Israel. According to Nazareth lawyer ‘Aziz Shehadeh, Rakah tries to stop youths from rais­ing the Palestinian flag as “part of its deal with the Establishment, to gain legitimation in Jewish society”. As put more bluntly by ‘Ali Jedda, of the Alternative Information Centre (Jerusalem), no police were needed at Deir Hana because “Rakah were the border police” (interview with the author, Spring 1989). His comparison refers, of course, less to physical repression than to an ideological policing of Israeli versus Palestinian national loyalty.

What precisely is the difference between a Balad voter and a Hadash voter? Nationalism? Is there a difference among economic sectors of the Palestinians - ie do construction workers vote different from pharmacists?

From what I understand most Hadash voters aren’t actually communists, just left wing Arabs who think Meretz are too ‘compromised’ (their Jewish voters are pretty commie though). Tend to be more popular with richer, more urban, more secular, more educated Arabs. They get a lot of support from Christians too.

Balad are basically just closet ba’athists/Nasserists who had ties to Syria before the civil war.

Gross oversimplification. Hadash is composed of several parties, one of which is the communist party which although not the biggest holds the funds. This are old Stalinists in Nazareth.

Also Hadash supported Assad while Balad were the pro spring party

[Hnv1]

Bennett is going to speak in an hour and then it’s pretty much the last hoorah for Bibi. He has 7 days to try and thwart the confidence vote.

It’s 80-20 for me. Bibi caused himself irreparable damage with the base anyhow today, and the knives are already sharpening at home. Barkat and Katz already start the leadership campaign

[Hnv1]

To me, this seems like a fairly noticeable ideological shift for Hadash - the "Tankie" party bosses used to order everyome to sing Hatikvah and banned the Palestinian flag. It does seem that they have been pushed closer to Balad over the past 10 years. How has their voting base changed over this time? What role does the increasing integration of Palestinian woman in the workplace have?

That was Maki, a different party. Hadash is decedent from the very anti Zionist Rakah.
Anyhow, it’s mainly a play for the young educated voters (Arab) who are much much more nationalist than the old guard.


Rumours Lapid will announce the government on Monday

From Khamsim in 1990

Following clashes with police in Nazareth on Land Day 1988, local Pales­tinian-Arab leaders decided to move the 1989 Galilee protests to villages to the north, with a march from Sakhnin to Deir Hana for a rally there. As Sakhnin had been the site of the original 1976 killings, certainly this decision had a strong symbolic significance. Yet it can also be seen as a pre-emptive move by the local leadership, particularly the Israeli Com­munist Party (Rakah), the leading electoral force among Palestinian-Arab citizens within Israel. An unstated aim was to limit any public confrontation with the Israeli authorities, particularly around display of the Palestinian flag.

Not only is such display illegal, but it challenges Rakah’s policy of dis­playing the Israeli flag ‒ and even singing “Hatikvah”, the Zionist national anthem. The conflict with many Palestinian-Arab citizens arises from the party’s insistence that they already have a country, Israel. According to Nazareth lawyer ‘Aziz Shehadeh, Rakah tries to stop youths from rais­ing the Palestinian flag as “part of its deal with the Establishment, to gain legitimation in Jewish society”. As put more bluntly by ‘Ali Jedda, of the Alternative Information Centre (Jerusalem), no police were needed at Deir Hana because “Rakah were the border police” (interview with the author, Spring 1989). His comparison refers, of course, less to physical repression than to an ideological policing of Israeli versus Palestinian national loyalty.

What precisely is the difference between a Balad voter and a Hadash voter? Nationalism? Is there a difference among economic sectors of the Palestinians - ie do construction workers vote different from pharmacists?

That was their communist stance against flags in general no where pro Zionism. I don’t know where the quote is from but there absolutely no way Hadash waved an Israeli flag and sang the anthem. No way. Maybe in the early fifties before the split, no way in the 80s.

Balad tend to be slightly more Muslim and less socialist. Also more in line with the greater Arab world.

Construction workers if they vote all will probably vote Ra’am or Ta’al, or Hadash/Balad if there’s any family connection or something. Arab voting patterns are really weird to describe, it’s clan first, then religion.

Source here: https://matzpen.org/english/category/khamsin/khamsin-bulletins/khamsinbulletin8/
I can't speak for now, but i can say with some confidence that Rakah behaved like this in the 60s through the 80s.
What about party membership? Is there demographic patterns there?

I'd take anything from Matzpen with a grain of salt. They still have a party here with less than 1000 votes nationally.
As someone who knows the Rakah people of the times in person from Haifa I'd be utterly shocked if its true. I'll need hard evidence to believe. It's true that even post-split Rakah remained suspicious towards the new Palestinian nationalism well into the 1990s. But thinking people like Meir Wielner would sing the anthem is absurd.

Membership patterns as opposed to voting patterns are easier to detect as clan leaders and such play a lesser role. Hadash is the coalition of the educated, Christian, and mostly from the north (though many Muslims and some Druze as well). Balad is very educated, mostly of a Muslim background but secular, with little support in the villages.
While the third generation of Balad who took the reigns since 2019 is more moderate, the new generation of Hadash is actually more nationalistic. They're fighting over the hearts of young Arab students who attend Israeli universities.
Paradoxically it's easier to imagine a Balad-Meretz swing voter over a Hadash-Meretz one.

[Hnv1]

How much latitude does Netanjahu have to try to pick off Yamina and New Hope MKs ? Meaning are there anti-defection laws that would bar Likud doing deals with individual MKs to break this ?

New Hope is safe. Saar is a pro, he picked a list of people who left Likud or dislike Bibi. Even if some are uncomfortable with this new government (I assume Hendel might be) none of them will believe any offer from Bibi.
Yamina is harder. Bennett is a muppet and he managed to have 3 people in his top 10 that won't follow him. It's also easier to squeeze them as they're religious and Bibi will send every Rabbi to pressure them. Shikli already jumped ship. Orbach said he might resign but wouldn't vote against it. Ther rest seem to be on board. So slim chances unless Shaked decides to backstab

[Hnv1]

@Hnv1 - the Matzpen linked party that gets votes still is the Trotskyist/Jerusalem faction. That article came from another faction - the more heterodox, official communist linked Tel Aviv faction 😛. They are partially responsible for Koah LaOvdim, nothing to sneeze at, imo.

two different movements. the Jerusalem\Haifa faction is the old people from Matzpen (like Michal Schwartz who operates the community garden here). They took a turn away from the Troskyism and ran as "One State - Green Economy" lately. They still operate a small union called Ma'an. They also have a Tel Aviv faction that ran for city council several times (once with MK Moati in it I believe).

The "Tel Aviv faction" is "Socialist Struggle Movement" and some of them operate in Koah LaOvdim (who also has members in Labour\Meretz). To my best knowledge, they are not officially descendent from Matzpen or any of their minuscule splinter movements.

The last of the splinter movements operated until 1996 by Michael Varshvski and he and his wife are Balad activists these days (his wife is the notorious lawyer Lea Zemmel).

I'd take all of their reports on Hadash with a pinch of salt as their (mutual) dislike is well known.


Likud is starting to pull Jan. 6 dirty tricks threatening to use Speaker Levine's power and postpone a confidence vote. The Jewish Ba'ath

[Hnv1]

Everything is settled part for a stupid (pardon) “cat fight” over a seat in the judicial appointment committee between Shaked and Michaeli

[Hnv1]

Herzog wins the presidency with an overwhelming majority of 87 to 26. Good Peretz was unbearable and Herzog is a top statesman. Let’s hope that by next week we’ll have a new PM and Speaker as well

[Hnv1]

So, Lapid's mandate expires at midnight in Israel, right? That's less than six hours away as I am typing this...is there any worry that they are not going to have a deal set in stone by that time?

Yes.

I think the right will come around, but Ra'am might end up hesitating. It's crunch time

[Hnv1]

The final hurdle between Shaked and Michaeli seems to be over.

Now they need to pin down Ra'am, which is also likely. I feel sad for 82 years old Rivlin having to stay awake until 23:59 to get a phone call from Lapid

[Hnv1]

Ra'am signed!

[Hnv1]

The final hurdle between Shaked and Michaeli seems to be over.

Now they need to pin down Ra'am, which is also likely. I feel sad for 82 years old Rivlin having to stay awake until 23:59 to get a phone call from Lapid

Wait Hertzog doesn't assume office after the Knesset vote? Anyway, here's another update:

https://twitter.com/MeyerLabin/status/1400151980631285763?s=20

It's kinda sad how Odeh's 'approachable' strategy for Arab acceptance got totally undercut by Ra'am and Bibi's machinations, and now the cordon is ending with him playing an auxiliary role. If the coalition government lasts a few years I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the realignments occur within the Arab space, to better represent the demands of their constituents, better position the parties for coalition membership, and to finally bring turnout up to a stable and respectable level - since a vote is no longer guaranteed useless.

Herzog first needs to take an oath. He will take office after Rivlin's term lapses which by my math will be on July 5.

Now Bennett and Saar need to sign and we wait for the confidence vote.

[Hnv1]

It seems Bennett and Saar signed but there's some problem with another Yamina defector. This time MK Orbach. Bennett is quite a clown, only he can pick a list where half of the people in the top 7 don't believe in his leadership

[Hnv1]

Lapid has informed Rivlin and Levin.

Source?

[Hnv1]

Official. For some reason some say the vote will be on 14.6. I’m not sure why legally

[Hnv1]

61 votes exactly? I suspect the saga will continue.

60. Orbach withdrew his vote. Bennett and his incompetence