Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

Meretz+Barak+Shaffir is gaining momentum, Horowitz to lead the joint list. This move might finally see Labour fall under the threshold. Peretz in a desperate move is trying to get some Druze and Arab 'voters' contractors' in the Labour top 10.

[Hnv1]

Labour are going under the new threshold, calling it now

[Hnv1]

Ok, so this is it: Meretz and Barak are uniting, as well as Stav Shaffir. Shaffir will be placed 2nd, Yair Golan (Democratic Israel) 3rd and Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel) 7th. Barak, and this is interesting, gave up on a realistic place and will be 10th, probably in exchange for a first choice of a Ministry if the party joins the next government. Him being pushed back is likely because of the Epstein issue that made Meretz reluctant. Top 10:

1. Horovits (Meretz)
2. Shaffir (Labour)
3. Yair Golan (Democratic Israel)
4. Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
5. Ilan Gilon (Meretz)
6. Isawi Farij (Meretz)
7. Yifat Biton (Democratic Israel), possibly someone else from the party
8. Yael Cohen Paran (Green Movement, comes with Shaffir)
9. Democratic Israel representative (I'd wager Yaya Fink)
10. Ehud Barak (Democratic Israel)
11. A Shaffir reserved spot

It'll be named, as Hnv1 called already, "the Democratic Camp". Shocking.

no. 9 will be Noa Rotman, the granddaughter.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction
b/ the list shows the depth of personal hatred, Horowitz made sure Zandberg, Gilon, and Freg are we settled and pushed backwards Raz and especially Rozin.
C/ Buskila and Fink who joined Barak are also pushed way down, the level of hate for them within Meretz and Labour dictated this move

For me this doesn't change anything. I will not vote for a list with Gilon and Bitton in realistic spots

[Hnv1]

Shaffir got 2 spots to give away, giving her some leverage to threaten Peretz with tearing him up more unless he joins. Peretz seems dead set on running with Gesher.
Edit: Shmuli already hinting he will join as well he Peretz remains defiant. that will be big because they could take a third of Labour's funding as well

Anyhow, Look at Labour's list in April
1 Gabbay
2. Russo
3. Shmuli
4. Shaffir
5. Shelly
6. Peretz
7. Michaeli
8. Bar Lev
9 Suede
10 Yalin
11. Hermoni
12. Fink

Suede, Cohen Farran, and Moati are all rumored to consider leaving. If the decision to preserve the list remains it will look like this (considering the departures)
1. Peretz (6)
2. Shmuli (3)
3. Michaeli (7)
4. Bar Lev (
5. Biran (13)
6. Bar-gil (14)
7. Cabel (15)
8. Salah (17)
9. Fadida (19)
10. Zimmerman (20)
11. Hermoni

a patchwork of a party

[Hnv1]

Lol Labour. This is pretty hilarious.

a/ legally unsure how Shaffir is going to move here. She needs another Labour MK to officially split without a sanction
b/ the list shows the depth of personal hatred, Horowitz made sure Zandberg, Gilon, and Freg are we settled and pushed backwards Raz and especially Rozin.
C/ Buskila and Fink who joined Barak are also pushed way down, the level of hate for them within Meretz and Labour dictated this move

For me this doesn't change anything. I will not vote for a list with Gilon and Bitton in realistic spots

I don't think Horowitz intentionally pushed Rozin backwards. Raz yes, but Rozin was his ally.

Also, can't say I agree with your choice I despise Barak (and that's why I'm not yet sure if I'll vote for them) but pragmatism is necessary to get any goals accomplished.

Alleged ally, he has no deep sympathy for her, and a lot would like to see her finally step aside.

It's not a matter of pragmatism, my opposition to Gilon and Bitton's insane Marxism is as deep as my opposition to the Israeli right. I would not vote for this list if it had Ardan and Levin in it and Gilon and Bitton are in a similar status for me.

[Hnv1]

The NR-URW union is also not done yet (why not just call it the Old JH as it's exactly the same as it was last year...)
Shaked and Bennet refuse to pledge a recommendation to Bibi instead only stating they'll support a right wing government

[Hnv1]

Peretz is so beyond caring he simply expelled dozens of Labour convention members who oppose his deal with Gesher to get the vote in. he's going to sell everything to be president.
He's a pointless politician, 30 years in and beside the Iron Dome there is  all I can think of that he did.

The Democratic Camp fell in polls which proves that bottom line it's 1.25*Meretz

[Hnv1]

Labour’s list is terrible. No. 10 is Carmen Elmakieyes. The worst type of millennial possible

[Hnv1]

Labour’s list is terrible. No. 10 is Carmen Elmakieyes. The worst type of millennial possible

I mean, not as if they're going to get 10 seats...

true. but it's still a strong signal as to the way the party is heading, another crypto Likudnik dancing on identity politics. I sincerely hope voters will punish Labour and send them under the threshold.

He has been a member of Knesset for 31 years now, I can't think of a single thing he did in that time that bears his signature. His major pride in the Iron Dome (dubious operational value) didn't have that much with him. I never liked Shelly but Peretz is both a HP and an incompetent airhead

[Hnv1]

The United Right is now named "To the Right".

I think the proper translation is Rightwards

[Hnv1]

The United Right is now named "To the Right".

I think the proper translation is Rightwards

Unless my English fails me, these things mean the exact same thing. Gil Hoffman (JPost) also came up with "To the Right". But Rightward(s) would be equally correct I suppose.

To the rights denotes to a relation, to the right of, while their name implies a direction so rightward or towards the right seems more fitting.

[Hnv1]

Smotric bad mouthing Bibi publicly would really help forming the future Likud B&W coalition.

Labour published an economic plan taken from the 50’s or Sci-fi literature. On the other hand they published something. Other parties can’t even cohere on a platform

[Hnv1]

The United Right is now named "To the Right".

I think the proper translation is Rightwards

Unless my English fails me, these things mean the exact same thing. Gil Hoffman (JPost) also came up with "To the Right". But Rightward(s) would be equally correct I suppose.

To the rights denotes to a relation, to the right of, while their name implies a direction so rightward or towards the right seems more fitting.

"To the right" (without "of") clearly denotes a direction and is a synomym for "towards the right" or "rightwards". Nonsensical discussion. Unless you think Beyonce's song is unclear too since it should have been "leftwards"...

I see they apparently prefer to call themselves Yamina in English too, though.

Labour published an economic plan taken from the 50’s or Sci-fi literature. On the other hand they published something. Other parties can’t even cohere on a platform

Hilarious that they are now pushing for an income tax of 65% while only rich people support them, who want them to focus on gender equality and gay rights instead. Flirting with the threshold...

I have a notary license and take my translations very seriously... Beyoncé doesn’t set a good example for proper syntax

I don’t think Labour voters are as rich as you depict them, a lot of those voters left Labour and aren’t coming back

[Hnv1]

A question for someone with a deeper knowledge of Israeli politics than I, but am I correct in understanding that the larger parties (Likud, Blue and White, etc.) would be unwilling to form a coalition with a group like Joint List? I know that Mapai used to run some Arab lists way back, but is it now the case that for the most part the Arab parties are more or less unsuitable governing partners in the eyes of most of the major parties? That's my understating of the situation anyway.

Mapai’s “Arab parties” were faux parties organized by military governors and controlled by force, soon after the military rule over Israeli Arabs ended in 66 they were done.

Peres in 1990 tried, and Rabin in 95 succeeded in having a confidence and supply agreement with Hadash and Madaa. But the participation of Balad and the radicals in Hadash make it unlikely for a similar arrangement nowadays, especially without a clear left wing government.
I assume Tibi might go along if it suits the PA interests

[Hnv1]

Haim Katz (Likud) will resign from the government due to corruption charges.

Deri will face corruption charges soon. So will Litzman.

Basically most of Bibi’s bloc would want an “immunity” government.


Bibi reportedly marked Ron Dramer (ambassador to Washington) and Yossi Cohen (head of the mossad) as possible successors. The move is superficial is neither can be elected PM anytime soon. But he’s signaling the Likud big dogs what he thinks of them (quite rightly)

[Hnv1]

Haim Katz (Likud) will resign from the government due to corruption charges.

Deri will face corruption charges soon. So will Litzman.

Basically most of Bibi’s bloc would want an “immunity” government.


Bibi reportedly marked Ron Dramer (ambassador to Washington) and Yossi Cohen (head of the mossad) as possible successors. The move is superficial is neither can be elected PM anytime soon. But he’s signaling the Likud big dogs what he thinks of them (quite rightly)

If anyone wanted evidence of why Israel is basically an Arab country with a Jewish demographic majority, the fact that tribal identity trumps even the most grotesque forms of corruption for so many voters would be it. Haredim and most right wing voters not only do not value Western democracy, but most actually outright mock it as sissified (and even goyish) liberalism that fails in a region where only brute force supposedly works.

Hate to break it to you but B&W and Labour voters aren’t any better, one might even argue its ingrained in our Jewish culture

[Hnv1]

Would a pure minority government work in Israel? As in, a B&W or Likud only government that tries to get everyone else to support them on a case by case basis?

Define “work”? As long as it defeats no confidence votes, i.e. having a majority of 61 or ensuring that there is no majority bigger than their own in each specific vote, a minority government could work (Rabin has one during 1995). Would it be tenable for 4 years? No

[Hnv1]

What are the opposition parties stance on the Nation State Law?

Joint list and Meretz are against, Labour voted against but I know not everyone was against in principal. B&W has a mix, from those against to those who literally drafted it (mainly in Telem)

[Hnv1]

The "keep but modify" position advocated by some in Blue and White and Labor usually involves adding an extra clause that it's also the nation state of Israeli Druze.

Or it emphasizes the idea that Israel is to be a "Jewish and democratic state." I have no clue what that actually means, but it is one of the founding principles of the state and to omit it from the nation state law is embarrassing and stupid.

No it’s not. It’s a great myth, Jewish and Democratic was a compromise in one of the late draft the Basic Law: liberty and dignity, so Mafdal would vote for.
See Aloni’s book from 2008

[Hnv1]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

Pollsters have no idea what’s happening. This election will be decided on turnout

[Hnv1]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

Pollsters have no idea what’s happening. This election will be decided on turnout

A recent Yisrael Hayom poll showed a large voter enthusiasm advantage for the non-Arab opposition parties (like Labor, Blue and White). Overall turnout was projected to be one of the lowest in years.

I have no idea whether parties are seeing that on the ground.

Wealthier voters tend to vote in larger numbers, but I wouldn’t call that enthusiasm.
Interestingly the joint list might end up weaker than the separate list were in April

[Hnv1]

Decent. Though taxation on carbon emissions is less preferable than tenders on emission quotas

[Hnv1]

Zehut are dropping out in exchange for a ministerial post for Feiglin and some medical cannabis reform that is happening anyhow. So basically Feiglin is dropping out and Likud will pay his debts
The promise is of course unbinding.

I believe they only had around 60K voters this time around and those votes will split between Likud-Rightward-Otzma 40-40-20%

[Hnv1]

Will Zehut still appear on the ballot?

Technically yes, but X will be marked on their notes

[Hnv1]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.