Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

Yawn! can we resume discussing Israeli politics thank you?

Haaretz poll from this morning with a Ashkenazi-Saar-Kachlon party
ASK - 23
Likud - 22
ZU -15
Lapid - 13
JAL- 13
JH - 10
Shas - 7
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 5
Liberman - 5

well this is the first party formation that can establish a government not let by Likud (JAL\Meretz\JH the only parties who will not be viable partners in a coalition here)

And to Labour backstabbing (come on you know you missed it): Margalit fired up on Herzog and Livni and wants to break up the union, with convention elections coming up in June I'm hearing of lots of infighting, and Shelly as always is doing whatever she wants

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How likely is the creation of such an ASK party? Who would be the leader? If that was the election result, would they prefer to ally with Likud and the right-wing parties, or to form a smaller government with the left (ASK/Lapid/Avoda/Meretz is 56, so presumably they could convince Liberman or one of the Orthodox parties to back the government)?

The problem is between Ashkenazi and Saar, Kachlon has no PM intentions. The likely coalition here is ASK-Labour-Lapid-UTJ-Shas at 65, don't think they'll include Meretz in it.

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Appears to be the dream candidate of everyone of the left but he does no ground work and just writes his witty posts on facebook, that's not how he's going to win the Labour leadership. To do that you need a coalition of 2 of the 3: Tradeunionists (loyal to Nisankoren)\elder voters (loyal to Herzog but could go for any "solid" runner)\young voters (most of which are Shelly loyal). The rest of the groups in the party of are to small to tilt an entire leadership election.

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Yeah I don't buy sh**t from what the soldier and his family said. I know the protocols there and if there was the slightest suspicion he had a bomb on him he wouldn't have been surrounded by officers and paramedics but rather isolated until he was checked. That soldier was active in Beitar Jerusalem far right organization and is generally a disgusting Ars I don't believe a word he's saying and I hope he gets the due sentence  (but he won't)

[Hnv1]

That soldier was active in Beitar Jerusalem far right organization and is generally a disgusting Ars I don't believe a word he's saying and I hope he gets the due sentence  (but he won't)

More racism by Ashkenazi left-wingers. Sad!

Didn't know he was Beitar. That improves my opinion of him even more. Now here's to hoping the Erev Rav will not succeed in this case. The people will not accept it.

Let's now move to the next junk poll, because while I tried to be objective in my first post on this subject, I see this is becoming a trainwreck

That's Hilarious because I'm not "Ashkenaz" part for one grandmother. Also nothing racist about "Ars" as you would have known had you known Israeli society better. Also today a fellow soldier present at the execution said there was no fear of a bomb and he was bent on shooting him, so can we cut the BS and admit the srugim and the uneducated mass just want a free hand in executing Palestinian militants?

None of it matters Ofc as he'll receive a ridiculous punishment, but this incident shows us the bestiality the right sunk to, and the fake humanism the right politicians have to express when direct evidence for the consequences of their words    

[Hnv1]

Thank you again .

Could a deal be reached between Israël and Palestine ? I just read a few pages of this thread and it seems that clashs often happen, big tension .

It's sad because both populations seem to be suffering a lot because of this conflict

It's a possibility, it does not entail a logical contradiction but I wouldn't bet on it too much. Then again the ME is volatile, maybe after Abbas resigns and this third intifida takes it's toll things will look different. 

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That's Hilario because I'm not "Ashkenaz" part for one grandmother. Also nothing racist about "Ars" as you would have known had you known Israeli society better. Also today a fellow soldier present at the execution said there was no fear of a bomb and he was bent on shooting him, so can we cut the BS and admit the srugim and the uneducated mass just want a free hand in executing Palestinian militants?

Non of it matters ofc because he'll receive a ridiculous punishment, but this incident shows us the bestiality the right sunk to, and the fake humanism the right politicians have to express when direct evidence for the consequences of their words    

The remark was tongue-in-cheek. That said, of course people use that word all the time, but there is a reason people also didn't find it acceptable to use the word on a Labour Party conference, and yes, that reason is racism and classism All this shows once again how the Israeli left lost any contact with the working class (or the "uneducated mass", as you like to call them; could it get any more elitist?), who love this brave hero and are sick and tired of the establishment. Sad!

I personally don't care whether the terrorist even appeared to have a suicide vest or not, and I also don't care for "right-wing" politicians preaching "humanism". I think you know where I stand.

The reason it causes stir is because some 100 Haaretz readers from Tel Aviv who care about identity politics caused a "stir" online, AKA no one really cared. Regarding the detachment from the "working class" (which in itself is funny for right wingers to go to) Israel doesn't have a working class, and even if it did it would not be the Sephardi population who are mostly middle class. Or as I tell fellow leftists, cut the crap this is not a class conflict it's a conflict between modernism & liberalism versus religious and ethnic backwards views.

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define working class? a working class as a Marxist "revolutionary agent" does not exist here or anywhere in the western world. I don't know how well informed you are in Marxist doctrine but trying to bend it to include Mizrahim is precisely why analyzing it to revolve around class is bogus. The fact of being poor does not make one working class, and it's definitely not congruent with Mizrahim in Israel.
Anyway in the Israeli market Arabs\Russians\African immigrants play a closer role to a working class than Mizrahim, I also disagree on you analysis as to why the left is failing with (a large segments) of voters.

FYI, Likud doesn't attract to much "working-class voters" as well. Most decile 1-3 voters vote for UTJ\Shas\JAL not Likud nor Labour (and surely not Lapid or Meretz)

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A. because popular opinion on matters is intrinsically true

B. I'm not going to debate Marx but a major factor in being working class is the alienating process of monotone work for hour and hours a day in the production of a commodity (which is of the highest value to the human nature) and being stripped of it by the manufacturing process that makes one a member of the working class. I don't see this conditions in the western world, I also doubt that the poorer sections of society are in the risk of being cut dry by the production process, they're actually quite stable nowadays (in being in crappy conditions), but rather the middle class is.

C. pardon me but I'm not all that emphatic for your likudnik lower middle class, I don't think they're doing all that bad and I actually think they profit from the continuation of the conflict. So yeah shocking a left wing voter who doesn't think Mizrahim are voting against their interests. how racist.

D. I think you are mistaken and the situation here is much less class-based then Europe (at least less than the UK\DE\FR). I think this is an inaccurate description of reality.

E. The uneducated mass is not synonymous  with Mizrahim especially not in 2016 where not so many years ago in my elitist haven of the Hebrew Uni law faculty there were even numbers of Mizrahim and Ashkenazim. Or Mizrahim are 45% of the upper class and are fully represented in the affluent regions of Israel. It's related to Mizrahim of the periphery (who are mostly Moroccan and Yemenites) but also Russians, Romanians and many more. It's a geographic term not an ethnic one

[Hnv1]

Back to politics:
The Supreme court annulled a part of the natural gas government decision (fascinating decision in constitutional law here) so the government will have to pass it as primary legislation. As they had very hard time passing so things related to it last time I will not go far to speculate we will have elections by the end of year. Especially considering Sarah Netanyahu legal problems and shatters with the Haredi over the Western Wall.

[Hnv1]

Back to politics:
The Supreme court annulled a part of the natural gas government decision (fascinating decision in constitutional law here) so the government will have to pass it as primary legislation.

Haven't been following this. Could you explain which parties are for, which parties are against, and why?

The situation is rather ambiguous. Kulano are sitting on the fence here with Kachlon claiming he cannot vote due to "conflict of interests" (which is problematic because MKs are not forced by conflicts of interests in their votes). Also, some of their MKs seem to oppose the deal like Azaria. In Likud, Haim Katz appears to be against. Now without those 3 Netanyahu doesn't seem to have majority (Liberman's position is far from clear). The clear parties against are Labour and Meretz (Lapid's position is unclear right now) and the parties for are Likud and JH to a degree. Shas and Kachlon are trying to distance themselves from this. Liberman...he just enjoys tormenting BB

The situation is complicated because I think Lapid would have loved to support it without "the balancing article" that was struck down in court (and well if Likud wouldn't have profit from it).

If Netanyahu wouldn't get a majority for this I think he'll have to go to elections again. The deal with private foreign companies just looks bad to the public (Yechimovic is playing very smart here) especially considering the house of cards kind of way the deal was made. I for one would probably had supported the deal if Steiniz hadn't pulled his shenanigans and took a piss out of the administrative law here.

So this, with Sarah Netanyahu's coming criminal charge, and the closing of the option of adding ZU to the government are pretty big mines coming this summer and I believe they're gonna throw us to another election by December

[Hnv1]

How powerful is the Supreme Court in Israel?

Popular opinion: Almighty, striking laws left and right, actual ruler, most activist court in the world
Opinion of most lawyers and those who actually follow the cases and judicial policy: trying his best to keep out of the way (even in the heyday of the 90s) but every now and then is forced to act when government plays chicken with them.

Generally the court doesn't nullify too many laws or administrative acts but the government here is bent on doing things ultra vires and against the legal framework so the court is forced to intervene. Current chief justice Naor is a conservative judge and from a right wing background and still was forced to strike down the refugee detention act three times.
The problem is image, the old chief justice Barak declared the ability to strike down primary legislation as unconstitutional on fairly shaky grounds in 94. The fact that he had an "in your face" image with his decisions regarding human rights and church-state relations also didn't help.

The court here will never dare to rule over SSM\civil union, the actual legality of the settlements, or major constitutional issues. But the right still takes a stab every time they decide against the government.  

[Hnv1]

Herzog is pretty much dead politically, MK Margalit seems to be pushing for leadership lately under the "witty" banner of New Labour and cringe worthy videos...Shelly\Peretz don't seem to want a leadership challenge now.

Labour is dying as well, but from radiation so it might take sometime (and if you ask me they became terminal in 99). Now the prophecy was given to the fools but I fully see a new party system in 20 years (old Likud is just beginning to die) and in some point in the near future there will be another centre bloc I reckon. 

V15 was a pathetic attempt and I wanted nothing to do with them at the time and predicted it was a waste of resources, this is not American politics and that's not what works here (I guess I also have a slight bias of anti-American politics with my personal history)

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Well I guess this is make or break, a coalition agreement between ZU and Likud is pretty much drafted (ZU will get lost of ministerial post but JH stays in and original coalition guidelines in place). Herzog is facing an outright rebellion with 19\24 MKs against (and Livni saying it will break ZU apart) but lots of local activists (mayors and such) are for.
It's a lose-lose situation for him, he's a lame-duck but I guess he wants some time as a foreign minister before they behead him. The Question is will he have the nerve the break ZU and even Labour apart for this.

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So is this good news for Meretz?

+1 seat tops, this is more of a birthday gift for Lapid

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Why the hell does he do it? What is the motivation?

Dead men walking have weird ways to go about, I guess he thought he could float like this for 2 years as his lots of field activists and mayors are for but he didn't think the response from the MKs and others would be so bad. And walla he's porked from every direction now.

but at least Labour MKs found some backbone that wouldn't have happened 10 years ago (the shameful sights of 2001)

[Hnv1]

So Herzog with an official statement said they didn't receive a good offer from Likud a one "he could take" he wants to have "hands on the sterring wheel" meaning not only ministerial posts but control of negotiations with the Palestinians. So for now this is off but as his entire parliamentary faction was in open revolt in recent days  I can't see him soldiering on like that without another leadership election soon to regain some mandate.

On a side note, Livni might pretend she's leading a faction of her own but bar for Hasson (who also took measures to familiarize with Labour membership recently) I doubt they are lining according to her whip. So we will both see a Labour leadership election followed by a decision whether to merge parties as well.

I have theory...I think we'll see a new realignment into new different parties from the centre to left in the next 5 years. Labour is steadily breaking into 2 different parties with contrasting platforms, Meretz raison d'etre was exhausted in 2001 and it's starting to be rather clear and the fact many left voters keeping voting for centre heroes also has its ramifications  

[Hnv1]

So Herzog with an official statement said they didn't receive a good offer from Likud a one "he could take" he wants to have "hands on the sterring wheel" meaning not only ministerial posts but control of negotiations with the Palestinians. So for now this is off but as his entire parliamentary faction was in open revolt in recent days  I can't see him soldiering on like that without another leadership election soon to regain some mandate.

On a side note, Livni might pretend she's leading a faction of her own but bar for Hasson (who also took measures to familiarize with Labour membership recently) I doubt they are lining according to her whip. So we will both see a Labour leadership election followed by a decision whether to merge parties as well.

I have theory...I think we'll see a new realignment into new different parties from the centre to left in the next 5 years. Labour is steadily breaking into 2 different parties with contrasting platforms, Meretz raison d'etre was exhausted in 2001 and it's starting to be rather clear and the fact many left voters keeping voting for centre heroes also has its ramifications  

I assume you mean a peace party and a socialist party, right?

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

[Hnv1]

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

Hatnua isn't really to Labour's right on some issues and Labour SDs are sometimes the most right wing in the party. Socialists and human rights don't get along (it's tearing Meretz from the inside) it was a forced union that happened due the circumstances of the early 90's

[Hnv1]

Herzog continues negotiating with Likud and he demands one of Justice\culture\communication ministries as a symbolic victory. I'm at a point I don't understand his aim, most of his party already announced their reluctance to join and he may get support in the party convention but that won't be enough (plus it will the definite splinter of Livni and her ilk).
He claims there some pressing diplomatic issues at stake here but I find it hard to believe (I'm sure BB would love him as a moderate foreign minister stopping those evil French). Even if does pull it off and goes in he's done at the next leadership election   

[Hnv1]

a centrist-small l liberal party between YA and labour old guard, a socialist party with the respective elements in Labour-Meretz, a radical human rights party from Meretz, some radical parts of Labour and young leftists. The farmers\workers federation type voters would probably disperse across the map

Do you think there's room for three parties? Wouldn't it be more logical to split into a small-l liberal party on Labour's right (Hatnua + Labour right) and a socialist + "human rights" party to Labour's left (Meretz + Labour left)?

Hatnua isn't really to Labour's right on some issues and Labour SDs are sometimes the most right wing in the party. Socialists and human rights don't get along (it's tearing Meretz from the inside) it was a forced union that happened due the circumstances of the early 90's

Can you go more into depth about this?

Well in the late 80's and early 90's three parties decided to merge, Dovish-liberal Shinoi, radial Ratz, and socialist Mapam. The reason for the merger was the first intifadda that put those three parties on the same line as pro-PLO talks and anti-occupation. The old economic lines were irrelevant back then and Mapam (which was always the right wing element toward the Palestinian issue) was shell shocked after  the 88 elections. In 96 there was a formal union, but things never went quite smoothly and there was a series of conflicts between opposing figures from each side.

More recently Ilan Gilon leads the "reds", who want to dim out on the Palestinian issue and try attracting working class Jewish voters on a socialist platform. Gilon is very popular with the youth branch and student groups and recent interior elections had a very ugly tone to them. Mainly the recent party CEO elections between Gilon's prodigy and veteran Mossi Raz. Now the election of the new Youth branch leadership are coming up which will increase hostility and animosity who are already running pretty high.

I heard from now a few party activists they wish Gilon would go with he posse and join Yechimovich in some new SD bloc. With the imminent collapse of the remnants of the Oslo process  I think we'll see things moving faster towards a split.

I could go further but this is as esoteric like battles within Vermont's progressive party I personally began on the Mapam side of the equation but I'm far from those views nowadays

[Hnv1]

Bibi is a political genius, Liberman joining the coalition and Herzog demolished in a single stroke.

[Hnv1]

Begin (son of) called this a crazy decision and said Bibi cares for his political well-being more than off the state (harsh words coming from him) but bar from him and Ya'alon can't see anyone else causing a fuss in Likud ranks. On Labour's side on the other hand several MKs called for Herzog's resignation with Galon and Oda calling for his sacking as head of the opposition. As I kept stressing this recent days I just couldn't understand what he was doing, it was a lose-lose all around and it was pretty obvious he was being played. What a tool, question is how fast can the parliamentary faction force a leadership election.

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I resent you naming Labour as part of the left. I'm actually for the most right wing government forming (and always against unity governments), go on lets see what you are up to, Liberman as MoD will be a catastrophe. His relationship with the IDF will be toxic from day 1. and well...Talk about moves that will agitate the international community further. 

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I resent you naming Labour as part of the left. I'm actually for the most right wing government forming (and always against unity governments), go on lets see what you are up to, Liberman as MoD will be a catastrophe. His relationship with the IDF will be toxic from day 1. and well...Talk about moves that will agitate the international community further. 

Lieberman is exactly the kind of MoD Israel needs, I just hope Bibi will not constrain him too much. He will surely face resistance from within the army, but the army is changing too, and Lieberman can help speed up this transformation, which is obviously taking place on other departments as well. Foreign countries will always whine when Israel defends itself adequately and they will only stop whining when more Jews are being killed and more Jewish power is lost, so if anything, international agitation would show that the government is on the right track.

Regarding Labour, well... even Herzog called Yachimovich "extreme left" today

You're wise enough to be aware that your argument there was ad verecundiam.

Well I worked in the MoD back in the days and I know the corridors, they will simply go over his head on everything important, Like when Peretz was MoD and everything important when directly to the PM's military aide-de-camp. I think you should have wanted Bennet not the thug, or as we say a barking dog doesn't bite.

[Hnv1]

Orli Levi Abuksis announced in a shock move she's leaving YB right before their entry to the coalition which makes YB one of the smallest factions in the house with only 5 MKs. She said the social requirements were neglected in the coalition talks (which is good because she wanted to have a sub prime bubble here). She was always considered a good MK and a moderate within the party, I guess Lapid will try to attract her to join now.

Bibi promised to fulfil Liberman's demand for "death penalty for terrorists" which is pretty weird as it is already the law but the military courts decide not to activate it. So I guess they'll try making this a mandatory penalty for murder offence in specific Mens Rea which will result in a constitutional cluster F and a certain void. 

[Hnv1]

Well Ya'alon just resigned, and left Likud claiming he's going to contest for 'national leadership next' (Kachlon-saar-Ya'alon?)
Yehuda Glick number 33 on Likud's ballot will be made MK