WWIII breaks out, why and what are the sides?

[12th Doctor]

I highly doubt WWIII would be a Pacific Rim Conflict.  The economic dependency of China, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Japan and the United States is such now that any chance of war between these powers would be peaceably resolved before it got too hot.  Sorry Lou Dobbs, but you are no international relations expert... China is not the boogie man everyone tries to make it out to be.  Any war with the United States would destabilize China is a month, and the entire government would come crashing down.  Any war between China and those other countries would bring in United States intervention.  Any war between any of those other countries is highly unlikely for the next 50 years.

Kim Jong Il might be crazy, and stupid (understanding that those two things are not the same, but North Korea is an utter joke... see Cracked Magazine on that topic), but everything he is doing is for show.  He doesn't have a death wish.

The most likely scenario for a global war is still in Central Asia or Eastern Europe.  It will not include Al Qaeda in any meaningful way at all.  Al Qaeda has been defeated.  This is not to say that they might not plan, and carry out another major attack in the West, however, their objective was to insight Muslim nations into the over-throw of Western power... this has not been achieved, and, in fact, while their attacks have not had the exact opposite effect, they have shown that the Muslim world simply is not going to act in a full revolt against the West anytime soon.

Iran in totally isolated, and Turkey is the only other power in the region that could pose a serious threat to anyone in the West, and it is going in the opposite direction.

So...

The most likely scenario for WWIII in the next decade is still a war between the United States and Russia.  Muslim extremism might be used as a cover by the Russians, to try something in Central Asia that would lead to United States/Chinese intervention, but Islamic terrorism itself won't be to blame.

Just as likely, Russia will smell blood in the water, after one instance of Western Betrayal after another becomes apparent in Eastern Europe and the Caucuses, and they will over-play their hand.

Likely, when this war went global, there would be less direct contact between Russia and the United States and more fighting between their surrogates (U.S. vs Venezuela, Cuba and other South American countries & EU and Chinese forces moving to check Russia and whatever stooge countries they can sign up... perhaps even Iran).

India would be too busy facing down Pakistan to get involved, and while it might seem like combined EU and Chinese power would overwhelm the Russian Coalition, the Chinese military is ill-equipped to handle the massive supply trains required for a war in Central Asia and Siberia, and the EU will prove their lack of will to take the fighting seriously.

[12th Doctor]

Of course, Eastern EU commitment to defeating the Russians versus Western European lack of enthusiasm (save, of course, Britain) would likely lead to the eventual downfall of the EU as anything more than a Model UN and trading pact, at least in all but the founding member states.  The Turks and Poles will have put most of the grunt work into defeating the Russian menace, and with Russia sent back into its hole once and for all, and Polish and Turkish power reestablished, their entire reason for having signed onto the EU will seem a memory.

The Chinese would suffer the largest blow of the victor nations, as the war would likely have a massively destabilizing effect on their economy and society.  The efforts to both needed to fight the war will send the massive, rapid economic growth required to maintain the status quo to a screeching halt.  People without jobs would demand reforms, and the final democratization of China would likely be around the corner.

[12th Doctor]

Sorry dead, I think China could whip the US and the UK combined, easily.

Highly unlikely.  As I pointed out in my scenario, China lacks the logistical capacity to carry out a large scale war outside the built up areas of the Asian east coast.  Wars require logistical capacity, and it is the primary thing China lacks.  Even if they could raise an army the size of the United States population, how would they feed and equip it?

It's a scare scenario constructed by people who lack an adequate command of the facts, of knowledge of military operations, beyond tactics and moving around lines on a map.  I suck at logistics, but I understand that you need them.

You know what else you need?  Training.  You know why so many Islamic terrorists in Iraq have gone to suicide bombing?  Because our guys were killing their "soldiers" way to easily.  Two weeks spent learning how to fire and reload an AK-47 (keeping in mind that many of these people come in with little knowledge of how to use, clean and take care of firearms) does not make you into a solider.  Their guys are pathetically bad in the field, because they lack the training that United States Military Personnel have.  A huge part of the reason that U.S. casualties have gone way down in recent military engagements is proper training in weapons and tactics.  If the Chinese just started plucking people to fight us, their numbers would carry them along way, but with a kill ratio of 1 U.S. Solider per 20-30 Chinese, we would have the upper hand.

And that it just in ground to ground combat.  To suggest that the Chinese Navy has a chance against the United States and British Navies is laughable.  Same with the Air Forces.

And lastly, again, a war between the United States and China makes no sense for China.  Their economy depends on the Pacific Rim trade.  Without it, their economy and society would collapse in an instant.

[12th Doctor]

Hard to see the Russians and the Chinese staying on the same side for very long.

The fact that most people assume that Russia and China would even get along at all is understandable, but completely daft.

It's understandable, because average Westerners, particularly Americans, who have no understanding of global political undertones have a tendency to assume that the groups that seem most foriegn to them, and have some ability, must be plotting, together, against them.

In fact, Russian and Chinese interests not only don't match up, but in most cases are opposed to one another.  This goes back years and years.  Richard Nixon understood this fact well, and did everything he could to further the rift.

[12th Doctor]

Supersoulty, you rather nicely demolished the pacific rim scenario, then slipped into fantasy yourself.
Could you explain what could Russia possibly gain from such a confrontation? And why do you think that Russian leadership is completely insane?
And the idea that China would participate in a war against Russia is even more insane than them plotting together against the West. China is trying to develop its economy, not to serve as canonfodder for the west, as you envisage them in such a case.
NATO and Russia still have their nuclear arsenals. While they exist, there won't be a direct war between the two.

As I said, I think the the Russians would push to hard once they got overly confident in the face of Western Betrayal, and finally try to grab for something that NATO and other non-Russians aligned neighbors would not give up.

I never said that Russia was just going to bust out one day and try for a desperate grab... our Russo-phile friend.

China might not join the anti-Russia coalition, but they sure as Hell wouldn't want to join the Russians either, and they would have no desire to see a Russian victory, so therefore, I think it is more likely they would feel pressured to get involved on the side of the anti-Russian coalition.

As for the nuclear arsenals... MAD.  NATO won't use theirs, and will be smart enough not to push for the total collapse of Russia, so that the Russians won't feel pressed into using theirs.

I'm not saying this will happen, but everyone else, so far, has assumed that China will be the big baddie in a WWIII (or a Russian-Chinese Alliance, which is even further from reality.), which is ridiculous.  I have no love for the current Chinese government, but I don't think they have the will or capacity to launch a global war.  The scenario I outlined is far more likely.