Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll: 42-42

[12th Doctor]

Not to "rag" on Fox, since I'm independent and try to play nice and non-partisan on this board, but they are generally thought to have a conservative leaning.  And I have noted in the past three years that they USUALLY (not always, but usually) show Bush with a better approval rating than most other polls.  So, I not only wonder about their methodologies, but I wonder if they also threw Bush-leaner states into the "Battleground", like Arizona, Nevada, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, Louisiana, etc... some of which (like LA and MO) are more than just slight leans.  Those are states Kerry COULD pick off, but if he does, the race has probably been long since over, since it means he'd have probably already wrapped up FL, PA, and OH.

I'm not saying the poll is certainly wrong.  I'm just always skeptical of the Fox/OD polls.  They have notoriously leaned, oddly, the same direction many accuse their broadcasts of leaning.

In case you think I've hit my head...

Fox/OD Bush approval 5/19 = 48%
Newsweek 5/14 = 42%
Time/CNN 5/13 = 46%
Zogby 5/13 = 42%
CBS 5/11 = 44%
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/9 = 46%
Pew 5/9 = 44%

7 polls in the last 10 days.  Fox/OD shows the highest approval rating.  Their early April poll was similar, though Newsweek was even and Gallup actually higher.  Early February (not as many March polls to compare)?  Time/CNN was the only one higher, and barely.  Fox/OD always leans pro-Republican... whether intentional or not, I won't debate that... but the fact is, they do.

Newsweek has a terrible polling organization.  It is always scewed towards Democrats (except in 1984 I think).  Zogby has been having some trouble lately two.  They are the lowest.  Fox/OD may be a little high, but no matter how conservative Fox is, they don't do the polls themselves.  Judging from what I can see at the moment, Bush's approval rating is probably about 46%.  Not bad when you consider that absolute pumling he has taken lately.

[12th Doctor]

Newsweek has a terrible polling organization.  It is always scewed towards Democrats (except in 1984 I think).  Zogby has been having some trouble lately two.

I generally agree, though Newsweek's Dem bias has not been very noticeable for the past year or two... note that they were one of the only polling agencies agreeing with Fox/OD in April.  Regardless, I'm not defending Newsweek's polling agency or Zogby.  But Fox's (Opinion Dynamics) is almost always on the fringe or even an outlier.  It is less reliable, IMO, than any others (including Newsweek or Zogby).

With every other poll at 42%, 44% or 46%, I'd put Bush's approval at 44%.  That's kind of splitting hairs with you (since you think it's near 46%), but when you compare it to Fox/OD's 48%, our difference of opinion is fairly significant.  It's significant because Fox/OD's MOE is 3%.  So, if my thinking of 44% is correct, then Fox/OD is, in fact, an irrelevant outlier.

Unfortunately, it's impossible to tell who's right.  :-)

Fox/OD hit the 2000 election perfectly.  48-48.

[12th Doctor]

This is when most other polls showed Gore as up by 2%-3% margins.

[12th Doctor]

42-42 is not a tie.  The undecideds flip overwhelmingly to the challenger unless the challenger is a a dud, and in that case it's about even (and thus still bringing up the challenger's poll numbers by averaging in a 50%).

I'm sick of people saying this.  This only holds true for the last couple weeks of the election and then undecideds are usually only 4% or so of the total.  This far our, it doesn't matter in the least.

[12th Doctor]

First, Zogby has a real problem with accuracy.  Of the major polls in 2002, he had far and away the highest margin of error and far and away the highest wrong prediction.

That's true, I think he predicted that Mondale would defeat Coleman, Johnson would level Thune, Dole/Bowles would be a nail-biter and Jeb Bush was in serious trouble in Florida.

[12th Doctor]

This is when most other polls showed Gore as up by 2%-3% margins.

really?  Most polls had Bush up.

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm
http://www.pollingreport.com/2000.htm

Are these the final polls?  The ones the day before the election.  Because I remember the race evened out after the DUI announcement and Gore was up in a lot of the polls.