Revised Predictions...?

[12th Doctor]

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Ok, we agree on Iowa and New Mexico, we agree they lean ever so slightly to the GOP...  

I too also still have MInnesota leaning to the Dems, so we agree there as well..

I have Oregon as a toss up on my map.  

Yes Oregon has a very strong environmental movement, but they ALSO have a lot of (unemployed) forrestry workers.  Bush has been (semi) protectionist in this area during the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. - I think that will help Bush.

Other than Portland/Eugene Oregon is still pretty small town and rural (it does border Idaho...)  So I think Bush's Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11 cards will play well in the non-Portland/Oregon areas..

Wisconsin is also interesesting.

The last so called "farm Bill" had burried amid it's $180 billion of waste a great deal of help for Wiscosin in terms of Dairy price supports etc, I think this may buy Bush enough votes...  Similar to Oregon/Iowas I think Bush gets a bit of a bump rural from Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11

Your fundemental assumption, however, is that all Nader support will magically melt away and that all of it will go to Kerry.

Here is a link to an article, admittedly written by a green party person, that tracked Nader in the polls versus Gore during 2000, and it found that a drop in Nader support DID NOT correlate to a rise in Gore support...

http://prorev.com/green2000.htm

I haven't done any more than scan this article so I offer no firm opinion on it, but it is worth a look....

Here's something that you have to consider about PA and MN.  Older voters in both of these states treand heavily Democratic.  They are the New Deal generation,  never voted Republican in thier lives.  How many of these people have died since 2000?  Quite a few I'd be willing to bet.  In the mean time, young voters in both of these states treand heavily Republican.  That's bound to make a diffence in this election.

[12th Doctor]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ok, we agree on Iowa and New Mexico, we agree they lean ever so slightly to the GOP...  

I too also still have MInnesota leaning to the Dems, so we agree there as well..

I have Oregon as a toss up on my map.  

Yes Oregon has a very strong environmental movement, but they ALSO have a lot of (unemployed) forrestry workers.  Bush has been (semi) protectionist in this area during the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. - I think that will help Bush.

Other than Portland/Eugene Oregon is still pretty small town and rural (it does border Idaho...)  So I think Bush's Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11 cards will play well in the non-Portland/Oregon areas..

Wisconsin is also interesesting.

The last so called "farm Bill" had burried amid it's $180 billion of waste a great deal of help for Wiscosin in terms of Dairy price supports etc, I think this may buy Bush enough votes...  Similar to Oregon/Iowas I think Bush gets a bit of a bump rural from Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11

Your fundemental assumption, however, is that all Nader support will magically melt away and that all of it will go to Kerry.

Here is a link to an article, admittedly written by a green party person, that tracked Nader in the polls versus Gore during 2000, and it found that a drop in Nader support DID NOT correlate to a rise in Gore support...

http://prorev.com/green2000.htm

I haven't done any more than scan this article so I offer no firm opinion on it, but it is worth a look....

Here's something that you have to consider about PA and MN.  Older voters in both of these states treand heavily Democratic.  They are the New Deal generation,  never voted Republican in thier lives.  How many of these people have died since 2000?  Quite a few I'd be willing to bet.  In the mean time, young voters in both of these states treand heavily Republican.  That's bound to make a diffence in this election.

I really don’t think that younger voters in either to these two states as a rule tend heavily towards the GOP if you look at the elected officials from both of these states (MN and PA) they are generally moderates from both party’s (Santorum and Wellstone being the exceptions)…as a rule I’d say that the DNC has an advantage amongst younger voters as a whole however amongst those who are actively involved in politics perhaps the GOP does have an advantage however I doubt it…. Sadly I cannot find any break down of either state’s recent voting to see how younger voters are actually voting but despite this I find it unlikely that the younger generation “trends heavily” towards the GOP in recent years it is true that the decline in the popularity of the GOP amongst younger voters has indeed been reversed however this does not translate into these voters as a whole trends strongly to the GOP…I find it more likely that in states such as PA, MI and MN the Dem vote in November will actually increase as blue-collar workers who have suffered under Bush and especially steel workers (who where a significant factor in Bush’s support in PA, OH, WV and MI) will vote for Kerry while many moderates who voted for Bush as a “compassionate conservative” may well vote for the Dems this time around and of course it is important not to forget that most (and I would imagine that it will be most) of the Nader Supporters from 2000 will further bolster Kerry by voting Dem this time around…so far from these states young populations tipping the advantage to the GOP I would imagine these states will return as even more strongly Dem than in 2000….

According to the Almanac of American politics, voters between 30-45 voted 50%-46% for Bush.  That's heavily for PA.  Also, I know for a fact that since 2001 the Republicans have out registered Dems in this state by nearly 3-1,  I also believe that since motor voter was enacted in 1998 Republicans have out registered Dems by 2-1 over-all in the state.  Another possitive sign for Republicans in this state is that Gore only carried Catholics by a 50%-46% and the Democrat lead amoung that group i this state has been declining consideribly since 1976.  By comparison, New Dealers, currently the largest voting bloc in PA voted 60%-35% for Gore.  These people are dying off rapidly.

As for Minnesota, the self-destruction of the DFL has left the Democrats as lame ducks in large areas Minnesota.  Also, as the Almanac state 'If the major metro movement toward the Democrats in the 1990's so visible on the coasts was was less visible in Minnesota, the counter vailing rural movement toward Republicans was even more prominent.  The result is that Minnesota must been counted as very competitive in the next CLOSE presidential race'.  In the next CLOSE presidential race, MN must be counted as competitive.  This means that if Bush wins the PV by more than say, 3% chances are that he will win Minnesota and I would have to say that even if Bush losses the race, he still has a 40% chance of carrying Minnesota.  If Bush wins, he will win Minnesota.

[12th Doctor]

As for Minnesota, the self-destruction of the DFL has left the Democrats as lame ducks in large areas Minnesota.  Also, as the Almanac state 'If the major metro movement toward the Democrats in the 1990's so visible on the coasts was was less visible in Minnesota, the counter vailing rural movement toward Republicans was even more prominent.  The result is that Minnesota must been counted as very competitive in the next CLOSE presidential race'.  In the next CLOSE presidential race, MN must be counted as competitive.  This means that if Bush wins the PV by more than say, 3% chances are that he will win Minnesota and I would have to say that even if Bush losses the race, he still has a 40% chance of carrying Minnesota.  If Bush wins, he will win Minnesota.

The DFL is self-destructing?

That's news to me.

Well then you must be the last to hear about it.