Gallup predicts unemployment to fall to 7.0%

[Cliffy]

The drop last month you needed a 9% GDP to justify (if you believe they didn't cook the books it's a big outlier), if they say it drops by  roughly a whole point, it's just beyond laughable, nothing at all to support that huge of a drop in one month.  

[Cliffy]

Read up http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/gallup-goes-town-bls-massagery

gallup actually is promoting a different method altogether to measure UE because of problems with the current method.  It's not as simple as you seem to think that it correlates to Gallup's polling, this is more of a problem with BLS data and calculations.  

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[Cliffy]

No they are using the BLS method for the number they are projecting.  They do a poll based on the BLS methodology with a smaller sample.  They argue that the BLS methodology is flawed and propose a different method to be used. 

Read up http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-07/gallup-goes-town-bls-massagery

gallup actually is promoting a different method altogether to measure UE because of problems with the current method.  It's not as simple as you seem to think that it correlates to Gallup's polling, this is more of a problem with BLS data and calculations.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, what you're saying is that Gallup believes their unemployment data to be far superior to the BLS method and that far superior method show a 0.9 drop in unemployment?

Glorious news!

[Cliffy]

They are estimating that the BLS might be at 7.4 if I read it right.  Would still be ridiculous. IF they did that I would expect they would say it was a combo of part time jobs and people dropping out.  The main hiring right now is part time jobs. 

Manufacturing shed 8,000 jobs.

[Cliffy]

Again, Gallup doesn't agree with the methodology that the BLS uses and is advocating a change to a model they prefer.  They still use the BLS methodology because that's what's accepted by everyone.  So your point that it somehow taints their polls makes no sense if they don't even like that methodology.. good grief, quit reaching.

[Cliffy]

Per Fox…

An analyst from the department said New Jersey and Washington, D.C., did not turn in data due to the mammoth storm Sandy, which hit the Northeast earlier this week. The Labor Department estimated results for the state and for the nation’s capital.

[Cliffy]

ADP just revised out 365k jobs, they aren't exactly reliable.

[Cliffy]

I don't think this job report matters, good or bad for either side.  There aren't any undecideds at this point.