NV-SurveyUSA: Obama+4

[Cliffy]

Add it to the pile of good news!

23% election day vote according to the internals. The rest are claiming they either have voted already (43% vs. 37% actual through 10/30) or that they will before Election Day (33%).

Don't doubt Obama wins NV or even that a 4% margin is unreasonable.

I do know that the Obama Early Vote edge is roughly between 25,000 and 35,000 right now if you look at the SoS numbers and rake them based on polling data. A 7% Romney undecided edge would likely have it inside 30K. That's with a three days left in Early voting, IIRC.

I am not quite sure what the magic early vote banked number is for the Obama camp. But I don't think 30K or even 40K is a comfortable margin.

Bottom line is that Nevada won't be a cakewalk for either candidate. And who wins will come down to Election Day turnout.

I think it's going to be alot closer than 4.  If you follow Ralston, he's saying it's not done.