Okay, I can finally prove all you sample weighters are wrong (user search)
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  Okay, I can finally prove all you sample weighters are wrong (search mode)
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Author Topic: Okay, I can finally prove all you sample weighters are wrong  (Read 4765 times)
Cliffy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 593
United States


« on: October 15, 2012, 03:44:49 PM »

Ok, I thought you were serious before.  I think Ideological is worse because I know libs who think they're moderates and moderates who think they're conservative, etc.  People don't really get the true definitions, then you add in the somewhats to expand the confusion and it's worse.  At least party ID is fairly simple and generally understood. 

I'm not trying to prove that weighing by ideology is a good thing, bro.  I'm saying it's bad just like party ID is.  If Party ID was good, Party ID should shift ideological ID in each election with it yet it doesn't.  More or less, the same kind of people are voting in each election.  My thesis is that more conservatives didn't vote in 2004 compared to 2008.  The same did.  The shift came in moderate vote.

Answer me this: why did the ideology ID remain pretty constant in 2004 and 2008 (21-45-34 to 22-44-34) yet party ID shift so much (37-37-26 to 39-32-29)?  Wouldn't less Republicans mean less conservatives?  Wouldn't more Democrats mean more liberals?  It seems pretty unlikely that two election years of exit polls could produce the same two numbers.  Not to mention 1996, 1992, and 1988 also came up with similar ideology ID to 2004 and 2008.

If Ideology ID is supposedly more violatile, why does appear to be more constant compared to party ID election-to-election?
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Cliffy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 593
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2012, 08:10:55 PM »

Ok, I thought you were serious before.  I think Ideological is worse because I know libs who think they're moderates and moderates who think they're conservative, etc.  People don't really get the true definitions, then you add in the somewhats to expand the confusion and it's worse.  At least party ID is fairly simple and generally understood. 

No.  People don't understand what it means to be an Independent or party member.   Consider: Glenn Beck is an independent whom will never vote against the Republicans.   There are a ton of conservative independents as part of the Tea Party movement, which claimed through and through to not be affiliated with the Republican party despite being 100% conservative.

Self identity as liberal, moderate, or conservative is far easier understood to people than democratic, republican, independent. 

Either way, both are garbage things to criticize and "adjust."  The polls are correct MOE +/- 3.  Party ID is correct at D+6 MOE +/- 3 and I'd say C+15 MOE +/- 3.

Keep telling yourself that.
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