Bush vs Obama 2004

[Cryptic]

Obama is not winning the nomination when he's still only a State Senator, speech or no speech. 

If running as a State Senator and somehow (don't know how) gets the nomination: 

Obama: 150
Bush: 388

A state senator will not be taken seriously and Bush will probably win just about every state he could conceivably win. 

For a more interesting scenario, let's assume Obama got elected to the US Senate earlier. 

Obama: 289
Bush: 249

Obama will inspire the Democratic base more than Kerry.  If the message of change is also tied into better management of the war, it can also appeal to moderates.  The race will still be close as some moderates will still be drawn to Bush due to the opinion on the Iraq War still being divided and some states like Virginia and North Carolina will be more Republican in '04 than they were in '08.  Still, I think he can win it if he is a national politician by 2004, especially if he has a better campaign staff than Kerry.