Arturo Belano
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,471
Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.43
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« on: January 24, 2019, 01:41:31 PM » |
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Betting on a military coup to take out Maduro is very unlikely, considering their deep drug trafficking activities and their historical role as a key part of the Chavista coalition. For them, the status quo is their best bet on retaining power.
I believe it's going to take brave actors on both sides to find some sort of common ground and bring Venezuela into a process of national dialogue and compromise. I don't think that backing Maduro's government further into a corner is going to convince elements of the government to consider the first steps towards rapprochement with the opposition. If anything, it's going to make them even more hostile towards any reconciliation. I believe civil war is becoming increasingly likely with the current trajectory of events in Venezuela and US foreign policy is fanning the flames.
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