PA 13

[jdscott]

I think Melissa ran a very good campaign last time in the Northeast.   Combinded with a strong year nationally for Reps. (I know Rendell won but he had no coatails) she almost beat Hoeffel who was sort of an incumbent (although 2/3s of the people in the NE probably wanted to vote for Borksi).

You have to admit that section 8 turned the election into a local election where many voters in the NE who traditionally go Democratic at least in national elections decided to pull the lever for Brown even when voting for Rendell.   As far as I know going into the last weekend the Rendell campaign was worried Hoeffel was pulling them down in the NE.

And Brown almost pulled it off.  Michael Smerconsih might have decided the race coming out against Brown at the very end denouncing her for race baiting.

However, rematches are a tall order.  And Melissa has tremendous odds in front of her.

Before anything else Hoeffel was slow to respond to the sec. 8 issue.   I doubt Allyson will be so slow to whatever attacks are thrown her way.

Also, I doubt this will be a complete replay of the Street-Katz race anyway.   Unless Melissa can make into a local election it will be about national issues more than local ones.

At the same time I do think Specter will fair well in the NE.  I don't have enough of a handle on the race to know if he will actually beat Hoeffel in all of those wards but he will certainly carry a lot of divisions.   But you can not for one moment compare Brown to Specter.  Specter has been around in Philly politics a long time he was DA and his wife was on city council.  People have long memories for guys like Arlen.

Just some general thoughts

First off in the NE Bush will be lucky to win 25 divisions.  He only won 31 divisions city wide last time, although most were in the NE (I am not sure but a couple were probably in the 8th CD).  So, from the outset the top of the ticket will be weighing her down.   This is the case even in wards, like the 45th, where there is residual anger by the committeepeople at the fact Allyson won the primary.  (although one must admit committeepeople might have a lot of sway when in a primary for common pleas court but not so much in a presidential election year)

Second parts of the NE are actually going to be behind Allyson.  Places like the 58th and the 56th will be supportive.   As far as I remember the Stacks were behind Allyson in the primary and I would be shocked if local 98 isn't at least a bit busy on election day in the 56th.

Third the inner Montco part of the district is far from a sure thing for Melissa either.   Abington/Jenkintown is probably out of her reach at the outset.   She will be able to cut her losses in Springfield, b/c its her hometown but Kerry is going smoke Bush there same thing in Whitemarsh (Gore won Springfield by 16 points and Whitemarsh by 13 points).  The part of UD in the 13th and the Morelands will go for Kerry but Brown should hold even in those areas with Schwartz and run ahead of Bush.

Fourth the outer part of the Montco district may be hard for her as well but for different reasons.   They like'em real conservative in Lower Salford and they don't like Specter. (one of the reasons Hoeffel upset Fox in thier 98 rematch is because that part of Montgomery county did not turn out when pro-choice Specter/Ridge lead the Rep ticket).   Brown needs the Presidential race to stay tight in PA so the Bush campaign is out there in exurbs turning out voters.  And if those Republicans come out they come out they are defintely not voting for Allyson.


In the end I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but unless the dynamics of the national race change I don't think Brown can pull this off.   I don't think she can survive more than a 10 point Kerry win in the district.   (just to let you know Gore won all of Montco by 9 and half points last time and the old 13th probably by over 10, Greenleaf got smoked by Hoeffel that year)

I would like to see if anyone has a different interpretation of the numbers and the politics at play.

[jdscott]

I sort of agree with you.  I honestly don't think Melissa wanted the issue to be about race.  I don't think people in Montco even know what section 8 is (unless you live in the handful of boroughs that have any substantail sec. 8 housing in the county) let alone understand the racial overtones of the issue.

However, I think some of those around her (not necessarily even part of her campaign, I'll call them "advisers") knew how some people (but not all) in the NE would take the Street/Hoeffel mail piece.

One must be honest about the fact that race is an issue in the NE.  And certainly it is not just Rs that have used election tactics with racial overtones (the 01 Democratic DA primary comes to mind).

And certainly the person or persons distributing the Al Sharpton flyer in the (I seem to recall) the 35th ward knew the implications of that piece.   Although I do not believe Brown's campaign was involved in that.

In the end Melissa has, I think a more, compelling issue in Med Mal anyway.  Especailly because it is something that affects the entire district not just the NE.  (which is by the way another reason she might have lost- it seems that she ignored places like Abington and the Morelands in favor of putting all her eggs in the NE and hoping the county GOP would pull her through in Montco)

[jdscott]

Yeah I would vote for Allyson.  I don't live in the district so its kinda of a moot question.

But I am much more interested in how you think Brown can win in the NE.

I agree that Allyson will run behind of Kerry east of the Blvd.  thats a given because Meeghan will not be pushing her at all however Marge will be.

The presidentail surge factor in the NE, although I do not have those numbers, is probably significant.  Those people are coming out for the Presidential and are more likely to vote party line when faced with unfamiliar candidates.

Just a quick run down of the 2000 numbers show how far Brown will have to come:

41st ward- Gore wins by 33 points
55th ward - Gore wins by 18 points
62nd ward- Gore wins by 40 points
64th ward- Gore wins by 12 points
65th ward- Gore wins by 37 points

The Santorum/Klink match up is also interesting.  Klink was DOA by election day and had no presence in SE PA but in those wards the numbers were:

41st- Klink wins by 1300 votes
55th- San. wins by 750 votes
62nd - Klink wins by 2000 votes
64th- San. wins by 600 votes
65th- Klink wins by 1700 votes

Klink won that part of the city by 3650 votes

And Street actually got around 35% in the 62nd.  Katz won the ward by only 24 points.  Which is small compared to his margins in other NE wards.

Based on those numbers I just do not think Brown can withstand the numbers Kerry will put up.   Even given the fact that Allyson will run behind Kerry and Brown will run ahead of Bush.

[jdscott]

No I was living in center city (2nd CD) while in law school.  I am now transitioning to NYC to start work.  (I have time to post to this site because I am in limbo between the bar and work starting).

My parents house was in the old 13th CD and is now in Gerlach's district (which I think is now the 6th).  The redistricting got me all confused.

[jdscott]

Yeah well that district has a wide swath of places.  I was living in Rittenhouse Square.  The 2nd CD includes North Philly, most of West Philly and Germantown but also Wynnefield, Roxborough, Chestnut Hill, Mt. Airy, Oak Lane, Cheltenham, Olney, and Feltonville.

So, its not as monolithic as you might think.

[jdscott]

Also except for a blanket statement about how you don't think the Pres. race will effect the voting you haven't given me anything concrete.

I would have at least thrown the difference between Rendell and Hoeffel's numbers at me.   Or Perzel, Kenney, O'Brien etc. numbers compared to Gore's or Rendell's.

[jdscott]

I meant a litte more precisely.   Like I said before I am really interested in what other people think about the mirco politics of this race.

And in general I agree Rendell had no coattails but I think it would be hard to say that 2002 was not an unusual year.  The president and the republican party recieved an high level of support in the aftermath of 9/11.    I don't think the same logic can possiblly be applied in this cycle unless something catetrosphic occurs in the coming weeks.

[jdscott]

Actually in 2002 I bet if you look at old polls for the NE neither Brown or Hoeffel had good name ID.

Most voters thought Borski was their congressman.

I do agree Hoeffel had the name ID advantage in Montco.

I think the flaw in your argument is that Brown will be going to Washington and therefore I logical link can be drawn to Bush (or Lott etc).   (I am not saying Brown is the same I am just saying the argument can be made to voters)

On the other hand Street is a local pol not a national figure.   It will be harder to try and link Allyson with Street because she is running for Congress not City Council.   Now if the Brown campaign wants to link her to Rendell and the Harrisburg dems (e.g. on the Med Mal issue) that is sensible.  Or to Kerry and "crazy" Mass. liberals on issues like gay marriage or abortion.

As I said before Brown was able to localize the 2002 race by making it about section 8.   If she hits Allyson on Med Mal even the most ardent hater will not see this as a Philadelphia/John Street issue (but of course ardent haters are probably not voting for Allyson to begin with).