Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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Posts: 14,703
Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43
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« on: June 26, 2008, 07:05:32 PM » |
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Yes, I'm minded to agree that 44%, or thereabouts, may well be Obama's ceiling in MS; unless:
1) Obama can improve his favorables. A net favorable rating of -3 doesn't bode much room for growth
2) McCain makes a major stumble then sends his favorables crashing
As I've illustrated before, Obama needs the support of 1 in 4 white voters and 95% of black voters to have a 50-50 chance of winning MS, assuming a turnout that is 64% white and 36% black. And that to me is a pretty tall order.
Right now, I'd guess that 17% of MS whites support Obama - tops. Could be a shade less
Dave
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