Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday - August 25, 2008

Obama - 45% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

The latest update includes two days of interviewing following Obama's selection of Sen. Joe Biden as his vice presidential running mate, and neither day showed an improved performance for Obama. Thus, Obama does not appear to have gotten the same type of immediate "vice presidential bounce" as have presidential candidates in recent years. That could reflect a somewhat muted national response to the Biden selection, or competition for the nation's attention with the Olympics. (The candidates who got vice presidential bounces in 1996, 2000, and 2004 announced their choices before or after the Olympics took place in those years.)

In fact, today's results, using Aug. 22-24 interviews, show both candidates getting precisely the same number of votes when more than 2,600 national registered voters were asked who they would vote for "if the presidential election were held today."

The race has clearly tightened over the past two weeks, after Obama held a modest advantage (averaging three percentage points) from the time he clinched the Democratic presidential nomination in early June through mid-August.

[Democratic Hawk]

Negative bounce is coming for not picking Hillary.

Did any one ever, seriously, expect Obama would pick Hillary?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Dang !!!

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-2)

The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades. There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.

Gallup's interviewing for last Friday through Sunday, the last three days before the convention officially began, showed the race at a 45% to 45% tie. Thus, there is already a six percentage point bounce evident in the data, although the final "official" post-convention bounce used in comparison with other recent conventions will not be tabulated by Gallup until interviewing for Friday through Sunday is completed (reported next Monday on gallup.com).

Of keen interest this year will be the dynamics of the race in the forthcoming days, as John McCain, by all accounts, will attempt to pounce on the Democrats' bounce by announcing his vice presidential running mate either Thursday night or Friday and with attention turning quickly to the Republican convention that is set to begin on Monday in St. Paul. Also in the mix this year will be an act of nature; if Tropical Storm Gustav becomes a hurricane and makes landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast sometime on Tuesday, news coverage of the GOP convention will be diluted, and the impact of that situation (coming some three years after Hurricane Katrina) is impossible to predict.

[Democratic Hawk]

I, generally, like to post the write-up when the numbers change

As Sam would say, "in form of Hawk:"

Obama 49 (+1)
McCain 41 (-1)

Obama's significant lead over McCain almost certainly reflects the effects of the Democratic National Convention. The two presidential candidates were tied at 45% in the last Gallup Poll Daily tracking results conducted entirely before the convention began. The latest results include interviews from Tuesday through Thursday night, though most of the interviewing was conducted before Obama's acceptance speech late Thursday.

Gallup has measured the convention bounce for candidates in previous years by comparing the last poll conducted entirely before the convention began with the first poll conducted entirely after the convention concludes. That historical calculation is complicated this year by the intense media focus on McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate on Friday, and the increasing focus on next week's Republican National Convention.

Obama has clearly seen a rise in the polls since the convention began with a 4-point increase in his support (from 45% to 49%) with the margin moving eight points in his favor. Obama's largest advantage at any point in the campaign was a 9-point lead recorded July 24-26, so as his party's convention concludes, he is about as strongly positioned as he has been at any point this year.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday - August 30, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Though down slightly from the eight-point lead Obama held mid-convention, this represents a clear improvement for the Democratic candidate's positioning in the campaign compared to a week ago when the race was about tied. The last Gallup update conducted entirely before Obama's convention and vice presidential announcement was based on interviews conducted Aug. 20-22, and showed Obama up by two points, 46% to 44%.

As the recent trend shows, Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night. However, the Aug. 28-30 field period also includes two days of interviewing since the Friday morning announcement by McCain that he has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to join him on the Republican ticket. Thus, it is unclear whether the full positive impact on national voters of the Democratic convention or Obama's speech would have been greater if not for the Palin announcement.

As Gallup has noted in recent weeks, both the vice-presidential selections and the national conventions have historically produced small bumps in support for the presidential candidates associated with those events (on the order of about five percentage points for each). However, this year, Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate produced no immediate increase in support for Obama in a one-night USA Today/Gallup reaction poll.

Given that the immediate reaction by national voters to Palin was very similar to their first reaction to Biden -- mildly positive but also with a high degree of uncertainty about each -- it may not be surprising if the publicity surrounding her announcement also does not produce an immediate bounce in support for McCain.

The mounting news coverage over the past 48 hours of the impending landfall of Hurricane Gustav on the Gulf Coast introduces still another variable into the mix of factors possibly affecting voter reaction to the recent campaign events.

Monday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first three-day rolling average based entirely on interviews conducted after the Democratic National Convention, as well as after the announcement of Palin as McCain's choice for vice president.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

This latest rolling average probably does not reflect much impact of the delayed opening of the Republican National Convention now underway in St. Paul, Minn. There was little convention activity Monday night due to Hurricane Gustav, and interviewing on Tuesday was, to a large degree, completed before the major prime time speeches at the convention were televised, particularly in the Midwest and Eastern portions of the country. A review of last week's tracking during the Democratic convention shows that Obama did not begin to show major gains until the tracking averages reported on Thursday, covering the first three nights of the Denver convention. So it is possible that any potential McCain convention bounce may not be evident for a few days.

More specifically, there appears to be a great deal of anticipation for the prime time debut of the Republican vice presidential nominee, Gov. Sarah Palin, on Wednesday night. It is possible that her speech could receive record ratings as Americans tune in to find out more about the woman who was largely unknown until last week and who has dominated news coverage since her selection last Friday. Then, of course, McCain himself makes his acceptance speech on Thursday night. The potential impact of the Palin and McCain speeches may not be seen in the tracking data until the weekend.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gains Overall, McCain Among GOP Women [2 Septemer, 2008]

McCain manages to increase support among women of his own party

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109975/Obama-Gains-Overall-McCain-Among-GOP-Women.aspx

Support for Presidential Candidates, by Gender among non-Hispanic white registered voters

Men

Aug 30-Sep 1: Obama 40%; McCain 53% [Aug 1-28: Obama 35%; McCain 56%]

Women

Aug 30-Sep 1: Obama 44%; McCain 48% [Aug 1-28: Obama 42%; McCain 46%]

Support for Presidential Candidates, by Gender and Party among non-Hispanic white registered voters

Men

Republican (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 6%; McCain 90% [Aug 1-28: Obama 7%; McCain 89%]
Independent (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 42%; McCain 47% [Aug 1-28: Obama 35%; McCain 51%]
Democrat (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 82%; McCain 13% [Aug 1-28: Obama 74%; McCain 18%]

Women

Republican (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 7%; McCain 90% [Aug 1-28: Obama 8%; McCain 85%]
Independent (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 46%; McCain 39% [Aug 1-28: Obama 41%; McCain 42%]
Democrat (Aug 30-Sep 1): Obama 82%; McCain 13% [Aug 1-28: Obama 74%; McCain 15%]

Gallup Poll Daily tracking, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Will the Abortion Issue Help or Hurt McCain? [3 September, 2008]

Women divide 50% pro-choice, 43% pro-life

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110002/Will-Abortion-Issue-Help-Hurt-McCain.aspx

Abortion Stance Among Women, by Party ID

All: Pro-choice 50%; Pro-life 43%

Republican: Pro-choice 32%; Pro-life 63%
Independent: Pro-choice 51%; Pro-life 40%
Democrat: Pro-choice 57%; Pro-life 37%

Effect of Abortion Issue on Americans' Vote for Major Offices

13% say that candidate must share their views on abortion (Rep 20%; Ind 8%; Dem 14%)

49% say that abortion is one of many important factors (Rep 53%; Ind 56%; Dem 46%)

37% say abortion is not a major issue for them (Rep 25%; Ind 32%; Dem 39%)

2% No opinion

May 8-11, 2008

Preferential Preference Among Women, by Party ID

All: Obama 52%; McCain 40%

Republican: Obama 7%; McCain 89%
Independent: Obama 50%; McCain 36%
Democrat: Obama 84%; McCain 9%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking, Aug. 31 - Sep. 2

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Only 50% of women are Pro Choice and 43% are Pro Life? I wish.

But as an issue it's only the be all and end all for 13% of them

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday - September 4, 2008

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

The results are based on interviewing conducted Sept. 1-3. The vast majority of interviews on Wednesday evening were conducted before Sarah Palin gave her much-anticipated convention speech. However, the data do indicate that the initial first two nights of the convention -- the slimmed down Monday program in deference to Hurricane Gustav and Tuesday's speeches headlined by former senator Fred Thompson -- have, so far, done little to change voter preferences.

Thursday's interviewing will be the first to reflect the immediate impact of Palin's speech, and the coming days will give a truer measure of the effect the GOP convention -- including McCain's acceptance speech tonight -- is having on voters. Obama got a four percentage point increase in his share of the vote in Gallup Poll Daily tracking coming out of the Democratic convention last week, establishing a lead over McCain after the two had been exactly tied immediately prior to last week's convention.

[Democratic Hawk]

Still no bump from the GOP convention.

Don't count your chckens and hope that there won't be

[Democratic Hawk]

Bush was elected by getting just about all of the Republican vote, and then a few independents and democrats. McCain can do the same, and win.

McCain pulling the same share of Democrats, Republicans and independents would mean he'd lose by a couple of points.

McCain may well win independents, nationally, in 2008 thanks to former Republicans embarrassed out of the party by George W Bush but sympathetic to the man of myth

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Religion Remains Major Dividing Factor Among White Voters [5 September, 2008]

Patterns similar to 2004

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110053/Religion-Remains-Major-Dividing-Factor-Among-White-Voters.aspx

Gallup Daily Tracking Polling Results, by Church Attendance Among Non-Hispanic whites

Attend church weekly: Obama 26% (Kerry 27%) / McCain 65% (Bush 66%)

Attend church weekly/monthly: Obama 41% (Kerry 36%) / McCain 50% (Bush 62%)

Attend church seldom/never: Obama 51% (Kerry 53%) / McCain 39% (Bush 40%)

Based on weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking Sept. 1-3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll Oct 29-31, 2004

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The Republicans are never going to own their failure. The sheer thought that a president can leave his country in worse shape than he found it and see his party rewarded with a third term is bad enough

Part of the reason I'm supporting Obama is that he is a Democrat, and what with America being a center-right nation in that conservatives outnumber liberals 3 to 2, he knows that if he is elected he has to govern competently and deliver on his promises otherwise he'll be out in 2012. McCain could just come in be as good as hapless yet stand an even chance of winning re-election in four years time. Seen it all happen with Bush

There's no accountability. Imagine just how prosperous and respected America would have been now had Bush never been elected

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The most hilarious thing is that McCain has eroded Obama's lead on the economy to 3-points. Ha, more of the failed same gaining ground on the economy. There's no hope whatsoever is there?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The most hilarious thing is that McCain has eroded Obama's lead on the economy to 3-points. Ha, more of the failed same gaining ground on the economy. There's no hope whatsoever is there?

Dave

Where are you getting this from?

Here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110170/Economy-McCain-Gains-Ground-Obama.aspx

But it pertains to the latest Gallup/USA Today poll

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The most hilarious thing is that McCain has eroded Obama's lead on the economy to 3-points. Ha, more of the failed same gaining ground on the economy. There's no hope whatsoever is there?

Dave

Quit your whining, it's getting old.

When I use words like "hilarious" and "ha" I can assure you I'm not whining . Wouldn't put McCain in charge of a hot-dog stand

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents [9 September, 2008]

Majority of independents back now prefer him over Obama, 52% to 37%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx

Support for John McCain by Party ID Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

Pre (Aug. 29-31) / Post (Sep. 5-7)

Republicans: 90% / 89%

Moderate/Liberal Republicans: 81% / 80%
Conservative Republicans: 95% / 95%

Independents: 40% / 52%

Pure independents: 20% / 39%

Democrats: 9% / 14%

Liberal Democrats: 2% / 4%
Moderate Democrats: 11% / 16%
Conservative Democrats: 15% / 25%

Support for John McCain by Gender Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

Men: 46% / 52%
Women: 41% / 46%

Support for John McCain by Age Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

18 to 29 years: 34% / 33%
30 to 49 years: 46% / 51%
50 to 64 years: 43% / 50%
65 years and older: 45% / 52%

Support for John McCain by Region Pre- and Post- GOP Convention

East: 38% / 44%
Midwest: 39% / 46%
South: 49% / 58%
West: 43% / 44%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Extremely disappointed with these numbers.

I'm not

[Democratic Hawk]

September 20, 2008
Obama 50% (+1)
McCain 44%(nc)

Amazing numbers; any ideas on why Obama's suddenly jumped ahead the last few days?

Here's Frank Newport's take:

Obama has held at least a small margin over McCain in each of the last four daily reports, generally coincident with the start of the Wall Street financial meltdown that began to dominate the news on Monday this past week. Separate Gallup consumer confidence tracking has shown that Americans' views of the economy deteriorated as the week progressed, and that Americans also began to express increased personal worry about their own finances. There is thus a reasonable inference that Obama's gains may, in part, be related to the way in which the public viewed his and McCain's response to the financial crisis. Friday's economic news was a bit more positive, with the announcement of a pending major U.S. government bailout for the country's economy, and the second day of significant increases in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock market indices. It remains to be seen if this will affect Obama's lead in the days ahead.

Obama's current 50% rating matches his 50% record high reached just after the Democratic National Convention. (That came in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.) However, his current six percentage point advantage is not as large as the nine-point lead he held in late July and an eight-point lead after the Democratic National Convention in late August. It is important to note that McCain recovered and moved ahead after each of these Obama high points, suggesting that it is certainly possible that McCain could recover in this situation as well.

Both candidates will be on stage at the University of Mississippi this coming Friday for the first of three presidential debates, and the public's reactions to the candidates' performances there could certainly have an impact on their election standing.

[Democratic Hawk]

Democrats Re-Establish Double-Digit Lead in Party Affiliation [23 September, 2008]

Gap had narrowed after the Republican National Convention

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110617/Democrats-ReEstablish-DoubleDigit-Lead-Party-Affiliation.aspx

Based on national adults (with leaners)

Democrat/Lean Democrat: 49%
Republican/Lean Republican: 39%

Based on national adults (without leaners)

Democrat: 35%
Republican: 26%
Independent: 33%

Among registered voters

Democrat/Lean Democrat: 51%
Republican/Lean Republican: 42%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Did Palin Help McCain Among White Women? [24 September, 2008]

Obama's problem with white men much bigger than among white women

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110638/Did-Palin-Help-McCain-Among-White-Women.aspx

Preferences for the General Election

Weekly aggregate of registered voters

% among white women (% among all registered voters)

Sep. 15-21, 2008: Obama 45% (49%); McCain 47% (44%)
Sep. 8-14, 2008: Obama 40% (45%); McCain 51% (47%)
Sep. 1-7, 2008: Obama 42% (47%); McCain 49% (45%)
Aug. 25-31, 2008: Obama 43% (48%); McCain 47% (42%)
Aug. 18-24, 2008: Obama 39% (45%); McCain 48% (45%)

Preference for the General Election, Among Women

Aggregate of registered voters, Aug. 1-Sep. 21, 2008

Non-Hispanic white women: Obama 42%; McCain 47%
Non-Hispanic black women: Obama 91%; McCain 3%
Hispanic white women: Obama 53%; McCain 35%
Asian women: Obama 60%; McCain 28%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 42 (-2)

Frank Newport's take:

These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill. The results also include one complete day (Saturday) after the first presidential debate on Friday night. McCain had reached a point where he was tied with Obama earlier in the week, but Obama has gained steadily in each of the last three days' reports. Overall, Obama has gained four percentage points over the last three days, while McCain has lost four points, for an eight-point swing in the "gap" or margin.

The full impact of the debate and its aftermath will not be reflected in the tracking data until Tuesday's report, which will be based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Still, Gallup's one-day read on the standing of the two candidates on Saturday suggests that Obama held the lead over McCain among registered voters that night, just as he had for the two previous nights.

Obama reached an eight-point lead or higher twice before, once after his highly publicized foreign tour to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Europe in July, and once after the Democratic National Convention. In both of these instances, Obama's relatively large lead was short-lived; McCain came charging back to tie the race in both cases. Thus history would suggest the potential for future shifts in voter preferences and for McCain to bounce back once again.

Additionally, major news events relating to the campaign will be forthcoming over the next several weeks -- including the final resolution of Congress' efforts to pass a financial bailout bill and three more debates (two presidential, and one vice presidential), all of which could have the potential for future shifts in voter preferences. Obama has held at least a moderate edge over McCain for the vast majority of the days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking since June, and overall has led by an average of about three points in the over 100,000 interviews conducted by Gallup during this time period.

[Democratic Hawk]

Women Who Are Politically Independent: Up For Grabs? (3 October, 2008)

Independent women who are Catholic, middle-aged, middle-income split in their votes

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110938/Women-Who-Politically-Independent-Grabs.aspx

Preferences for the General Election Among Independent Female Voters

Aggregate registered voters, Sep. 1-29, 2008. Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Married: Obama 40%; McCain 48%
Not married: Obama 50%; McCain 34%

Have children under 18: Obama 48%; McCain 40%
No children under 18: Obama 43%; McCain 42%

Attend church weekly: Obama 35%; McCain 50%
Almost weekly/Monthly: Obama 47%; McCain 41%
Seldom/Never: Obama 52%; McCain 33%

18 to 34: Obama 57%; McCain 30%
35 to 54: Obama 45%; McCain 43%
55+: Obama 38%; McCain 44%

College: Obama 54%; McCain 37%
No college: Obama 41%; McCain 43%

Protestant: Obama 40%; McCain 44%
Catholic: Obama 43%; Obama 43%
No religion: Obama 66%; McCain 24%

<$2,000 per month: Obama 46%; McCain 36%
$2,000 to <$5,000: Obama 45%; McCain 43%
$5,000 to <$7,500: Obama 50%; McCain 44%
$7,5000 or more: Obama 49%; McCain 42%

Dave