Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 24% say national security issues are their highest priority. Obama leads 61% to 33% among those who focus on the economy while McCain leads 62% to 34% among national security voters. Obama also leads among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important. McCain leads among the 9% who say fiscal issues are tops and among the 6% whose primary interest is in cultural issues

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 3, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Due to the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the Presidential Tracking Poll will not be updated again until Monday. However, other polling data will be released each day over the weekend, including additional demographic data on the Presidential race.

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, 5 July, 2008

An analysis of Rasmussen Reports data from 15,000 telephone interviews shows that libertarian voters favor Obama over McCain.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of the nation’s voters are both fiscally and socially conservative. Twenty percent (20%) are both fiscally and socially moderate. Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters are fiscally moderate and socially liberal. Two groups of voters each include 10% of the voting population—those who are fiscally conservative and socially moderate along with those who are fiscally moderate and socially conservative. Nine percent (9%) are fiscally and socially liberal.

Fiscally conservative / Socially conservative (24%): Obama 13%; McCain 82%

Fiscally moderate / Socially moderate (20%): Obama 59%; McCain 30%

Fiscally moderate / Socially liberal (15%): Obama 80%; McCain 13%

Fiscally conservative / Socially moderate (10%): Obama 25%; McCain 67%

Fiscally moderate / Socially conservative (10%): Obama 40%; McCain 51%

Fiscally liberal / Socially liberal (9%): Obama 91%; McCain 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/libertarians_favor_obama_and_other_looks_at_election_2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-1, +2)

Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data today from Illinois at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, from North Dakota at noon Eastern, and from Wisconsin at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Polling on the North Dakota Governor’s race and the Illinois Senate race will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

[Democratic Hawk]

Now which would fit me?

Fiscally moderate / Socially moderate (20%): Obama 59%; McCain 30%

or

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Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Just 15% of voters say the nation is heading in the right direction while 79% say it has gotten off on the wrong track. McCain is supported by 85% of those who say the country is heading in the right direction. Among the much larger number who say the country has gotten off on the wrong track, Obama leads 54% to 38%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008 and these voters prefer Obama by a sixteen point margin. Twenty-three percent (23%) name national security issues as their highest priority. They favor McCain by a two-to-one margin. Domestic issues such as Social Security and Health Care are most important for 12%, fiscal issues for 8%, and cultural issues for 5%. Obama leads by a wide margin among those who call cultural - shouldn't that read domestic - issues most important while McCain leads by similarly wide margins among those who consider fiscal or cultural issues tops.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama taking a hit on FISA perhaps?

[Democratic Hawk]

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

Is there any need? Issues polls. ANWR perhaps? Cue McCain, 1, 2, 3, flip

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

Is there any need? Issues polls. ANWR perhaps? Cue McCain, 1, 2, 3, flip

Dave

Of course Rasmussen will show Hillary Clinton beating MCcain by 20 in Pennsylvania, 15 in Ohio and 10 in Florida ...

My concern is that the hypothetical Clinton vs McCain match-ups could be a distraction moving forward through the summer

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Now those may be fun

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Yes. That may well be what is happening. Obama consolidating his position in many blue states with McCain, doing likewise, in many red states. If this pattern holds, the purple battleground is likely to narrow, which means a result on par with 2000 or 2004, either way, is plausible

Lets see what NC shows later today. I expect McCain to be ahead by 4 or 5, as well as him maintaining the advantage in NV and being comfortably ahead in AR

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

No way.  Didn't you get the memo?  Georgia and Indiana are toss ups.

I said many red states, not every red state

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.

[Democratic Hawk]

Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama - 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55%. Obama is clearly the defining candidate of the race and energizes both sides of the political divide more than McCain. The presumptive Democratic nominee is viewed Very Favorably by 53% of Democrats and Very Unfavorably by 51% of Republicans. McCain generates less passion and less intense opposition. He is viewed Very Favorably by 38% of Republicans and Very Unfavorably by 31% of Democrats.

Among unaffiliated voters, 20% have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 24% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers among unaffiliated voters are 14% Very Favorable and 14% Very Unfavorable.

[Democratic Hawk]

Interestingly, nationally in tracking polls, the race is tight - but, at this point, Gallup reported a similarly tight race between Reagan and Carter in 1980

The challenge for Obama is to do what Reagan did before him - cross the "acceptability threshold".  Doubts linger with Obama. That much is evident

Nevertheless, the contours between 1980 and 2008, in terms of the macro-environment, are there. The only exception being the incumbent president is not on the ballot

Meanwhile, two things work to McCain's advantage:

1. The fact that McCain, as a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, has a compelling story of heroism to tell, which adds substance to his character

2. The "myth of the maverick" that has been peddled by a media infatuated with McCain has also helped him to attain a standing higher than that of his president or party despite the John McCain of 2008 actually being more like the George W Bush of 2000 than he is the John McCain of 2000, which doesn't exactly inspire much confidence. Not from me anyway

Yes, McCain is, undoubtedly, a more experienced legislator than Obama (given that he's been on Capitol Hill since Adam were a lad that much is indisputable) but when that experience has been aligned with George W Bush, whom the vast majority of Americans disapprove and under whom a clear majority feel the country is on the wrong track, 90% of the time, should it really be good grounds for promotion?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 21, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-2, -1)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats

Today, at noon Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Georgia. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released on the Senate races in Georgia and Alaska. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)
Obama: 53% favorable; - % unfavorable (-2, -)

If McCain wins because of Democrats, I might as well lose all reason to live

[Democratic Hawk]

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...

I might have endorsed McCain in 2004 had he either challenged Bush, a failing president as of then, and defeated him for the GOP nomination or ran as an Independent. 2008? No chance. McCain is more Bush than he is McCain these days. Sod any more of that suffering

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

That's exactly right.  Democrats who vote for a Republican should be shot and Republicans who vote for a Democrat, well...

I might have endorsed McCain in 2004 had he either challenged Bush, a failing president as of then, and defeated him for the GOP nomination or ran as an Independent. 2008? No chance. McCain is more Bush than he is McCain these days. Sod any more of that suffering

Dave

More evidence that Hawk has been replaced by a robot.  Mention a political name and it will spit out a pre-formulated assessment!

A robot today, am I? Heck, I was Gore Vidal the other week! ....

[Democratic Hawk]

Since no one did this today, in the form of Hawk:
Tuesday, July 22, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - % unfavorable (-, -)
Obama: 55% favorable; - % unfavorable (+2, -)

When leaners are included, Obama leads by six points among women while McCain has a seven point edge among men. McCain is currently supported by 85% of Republicans and holds a modest six percentage point lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats

[Democratic Hawk]

Maybe the beginnings of a slight bounce from the Middle East/Europe trip?

Well, according to Rasmussen:

In last night’s polling, 50% had already seen coverage of Obama’s Berlin speech. Initial reactions to the speech will be reported at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - July 27, 2008

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 44% (+1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 56% (-1) / 41% (nc)
McCain: 55% (nc) / 43% (+1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 28, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama: 56% favorable; - 43% unfavorable (nc, +2)

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +2)

[Democratic Hawk]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska...

Fingers crossed guys!!!

It won´t be close. Yesterday they mentioned Birch Bayh in one of their releases ...

Noticed that. Evan is, of course, Birch Evans Bayh III

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 21% name national security issues. Twelve percent (12%) say that domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care are the highest priority, 9% name fiscal issues such as taxes and government while 5% focus primarily on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.

As with everything in a political election season, there is a partisan divide on priorities. Among Democrats, 53% say the economy is most important, 17% name domestic issues as their primary concern, and 14% say national security. For Republicans, 35% focus first on national security, 31% on the economy, and 14% on fiscal issues. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 51% say the economy is number one and 16% say the top issue is national security.

Obama leads by 19 points among those who say economic issues are most important while McCain leads by 39 among national security voters. Obama also leads among those focused on domestic issues while McCain leads among those whose top priority is fiscal issues or cultural issues.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (+1, -2)
Obama: 55% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

Would Obama be any more thought of if he took the low road?

At noon Eastern Time today, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers on the Texas Senate will be released.

[Democratic Hawk]

Hawk - with leaners it's 47-46, not 47-45.

Corrected