HALPERIN’S TAKE: What Hillary Clinton Has to Do to Really “Win” PennsylvaniaIn a world where “what is” trumps “what might be” (as Joe Scarborough might say):
http://thepage.time.com/halperins-take-what-hillary-clinton-has-to-do-to-really-win-pennsylvania/1. She has to win the popular vote by more than 10.5% or the media will say she didn’t beat expectations (and her Ohio margin).
2. She has to cut into Obama’s national popular vote lead with a big Pennsylvania popular vote win and high turnout.
3. She has to net enough delegates to meaningfully slice into Obama’s lead (or you will hear the Obama campaign yawn loudly).
4. She has to sufficiently dominate the white, working-class vote (by beating her Ohio margin here too, according to the Delphic exit poll) to scare the bejesus out of the superdelegates — or Obama can claim to have proven that the Rev. Wright flap hasn’t hurt him.*
5. She has to frame her victory so that it appears she won based on a stronger appeal on the economy (and have the exit poll bear that out as well).
6. She has to harvest some superdelegates in the immediate aftermath.
7. She has to have the media (and, thus, the superdelegates) begin to truly buy into her “I can win the big states (and he can’t)” argument.
8. She has to bring the momentum from her win into Indiana and North Carolina, including through polling movement.
9. She has to see a spike in Internet and old-style contributions.
10. She has to give her surrogates something solid to offer the media, the donors, and the voters — so they can emphatically sell, soothe, and strategize, rather than anxiously defend, decry, and deny (and, on occasion, predict an Obama victory).
11. She has to give Bill Clinton something constructive on which to campaign — so he can happily pump his fist and make a strong case, instead of bitterly wag his finger and make angry accusations.
12. She has to hope the news cycle works in her favor so the media is not diverted from her victory as the undeniable story of the week.
13. She has to hope the results influence the Chattering Class/polls/campaign huddles/conventional wisdom/talk radio themes/conference call questions enough to shake Obama’s debonair poise — so he starts looking a little more worried about July, and a little less confident about November.
14. She has to tweak her stump speech (and especially her victory speech) to project confidence and a winner’s forward-looking strut, rather than her recent I’m-down-but-not-out forced cheer.
15. She has to hope that all of the above silences the “drop out” chorus of doom-and-gloom pundits, frantic Democrats, and overwrought journalists.
And THAT’S why it is going to be hard for Hillary Clinton to really “win” Pennsylvania.
.....
Is it any wonder Wolfson is spinning, given that tall order?
Dave
