Novak: Clinton CA lead is mirage

[Democratic Hawk]

There aren't very many blacks in CA anymore... 

There aren't many blacks in NV relative to Hispanics yet each comprised 15% of the Democratic vote in the caucuses. Incidentally, Obama performed somewhat better among Hispanics (26%) than Hillary did among blacks (14%)

That said, I do expect Hispanics to be much more sizeable constituency in CA's Democratic primary

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

There aren't very many blacks in CA anymore... 

There aren't many blacks in NV relative to Hispanics yet each comprised 15% of the Democratic vote in the caucuses. Incidentally, Obama performed somewhat better among Hispanics (26%) than Hillary did among blacks (14%)

That said, I do expect Hispanics to be much more sizeable constituency in CA's Democratic primary

Dave

Problem, Dave:

Nevada:  Blacks 6.6%, Hispanics 19.7%
California:  Blacks 6.4%, Hispanics 32.4%, Asians 10.8%

Same amount of blacks, nearly twice as many Hispanics, and the Asian vote to throw in.

Also, those numbers are probably more for Hispanics and Asians and less for blacks than when they were conducted in 2000/2004.

sh**t, more Hispanics than I thought

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, if it's of any interest, CA's racial demographics in the 2004 Democratic primary were as follows:

White (68%) African-American (8%) Latino (16%) Asian (4%) Other (5%)

Dave