Australian Election Prediction Contest

[Democratic Hawk]

Predict the following:

a) number of seats for the ALP, number of seats for the Coalition, number of seats for Indies/Other parties:

ALP 82 seats / Coalition 66 / Independents 2

b) the seat with the biggest majority: Grayndler (ALP, NSW) 75.5% - 24.5%

c) the seat with the smallest majority: Bowman (Lib, QLD) 50.05% - 49.95%

d) list all the seats you think will change hands

ALP gain. Robertson, Cowper, Paterson, Dobell, Bennelong, Page, Eden-Monaro, Wentworth, Lindsay, Paramatta (NSW); Longman, Herbert, Blair, Moreton, Bonner (QLD); Sturt, Boothby, Wakefield, Kingston, Makin (SA); Bass, Braddon (TAS); Solomon (NT)

Lib gain: Calare (NSW); Swan (WA)

e) predict the two-party vote in the following, semi-randomly selected, divisions:

i) Bennelong: ALP 51.7% / Lib 48.3%
ii) Wentworth: ALP 53.5% / Lib 46.5%
iii) Braddon: ALP 52.1% / Lib 47.9%
iv) Solomon: ALP 51.4% / Lib 48.6%
v) Leichhardt: Lib 52.3% / ALP 47.7%
vi) Melbourne Ports: ALP 55.8% / Lib 44.2%

Dave