Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections thread

[Democratic Hawk]

And the perfect storm for the opponents of Labour would be Labour losing Ealing Southall to the Conservatives and Sedgefield to the Lib Dems.

mmm... that would be nice (wont happen... but it'd be nice ).

Ben,

While I can understand you wanting the Tories to win Ealing Southall, surely, you can spare me any niceties in wishing the Lib Dems any success in Sedgefield !

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sorry Dave... i forgot about Sedgefield being right next to your patch. While i might not want a boost for Brown as it's your 'neck of the woods' I hope (and frankly expect!) you'll hold off any 'yellow peril'.

Both the LibDems and the Tories will focus on Ealing in all likelihood (Tories have got started early which makes a nice change) however it's a by-election and the LibDems will go in "hammer and tongs", but it's still Labour's to lose IMHO (something thats even more the case in Sedgefield). 

So an unofficial... best of luck mate!      

Cheers Ben ,

Sometimes I wonder whether Labour and the Conservatives should be, somehow, working to rid Britain of the 'yellow peril'

High-time voters woke up to the fact that the LD's aren't quite the nicey-nice, inoffensive, centre - left/right party they'd have them believe

I'll be doing my bit in Sedgefield

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

What really gets me is the slightly "saintly" air that the LibDems seem to assume while they engaged in distortions, lies and character assassinations... i suppose in the short term its very effective politics and wins you by elections against the two major parties but in the wider scheme of things it just drags the whole process further into disrepute.     

Very true, Ben, very true

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Liberal Democrats select Nigel Bakhai for Ealing Southall

http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/nigel-bakhai-ealing-southall.12842.html

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

http://www.thisisthenortheast.co.uk/display.var.1514181.0.five_names_put_forward_in_search_for_blairs_successor.php

The five Labour prospective candidates for Sedgefield are: Simon Henig (Deputy Leader of Chester-le-Street DC), Melanie Johnson (former MP for Welwyn Hatfield), Pat McCourt (Deputy Leader of Ferryhill TC); Alan Strickland (former President of Oxford University Student's Union, hails from Newton Aycliffe) and Phil Wilson

The only one I know, personally, is Simon Henig

Meanwhile, in Ealing Southall:

http://www.libdemvoice.org/tories-hit-by-defection-in-by-election-seat-of-ealing-southall-958.html

Brij Mohan Gupta, the Deputy Chair (Political) of Ealing Southall Conservatives has defected to the Lib Dems

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The Liberal Democrats are running Greg Stone in Sedgefield.

Was that the bloke who ran in Newcastle Central at the general election... or am i getting him confused with someone else? 

Yes.

From what I've heard from Dave it appears to be the norm in County Durham for the Lib Dems to parachute in an urban 'outsider' into a rural ward or seat, so it was to be expected.

Naturally, I'm very relieved that the Lib Dems have parachuted Greg Stone into Sedgefield

Labour's Phil Wilson was selected by a '"comfortable margin"

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

From what I've heard from Dave it appears to be the norm in County Durham for the Lib Dems to parachute in an urban 'outsider' into a rural ward or seat, so it was to be expected.

Chris Foote-Wood being a noticeable exception. Long-standing Wear Valley councillor (former leader) and former Durham County councillor, who has had more shots at parliament than the French have had Republics

He stood at Newcastle North (Feb. 1974), Middlesbrough (Oct. 1974), City of Durham (1979), Durham North West (1983, 1987) and Bishop Auckland (2001, 2005), as well as four unsuccessful attempts at the European Parliament

Another exception would be Carol Woods, who will be having her third shot at the City of Durham at the next general election. She's now Deputy Leader of Durham City Council and represents Shadforth & Sherburn

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Btw, who's running the Labour campaign in Sedgefield?

Not sure. I'd have thought John Burton unless he has 'retired' with Tony

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Ditto. A pity that he took down that nasty little website that he runs down a few days ago though.

Not this one I take it http://gregstone.org.uk/

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Ditto. A pity that he took down that nasty little website that he runs down a few days ago though.

Not this one I take it http://gregstone.org.uk/

Dave

No, not that one. He used to run a site called "Labour Watch" which was... erm... "special"... even by the standards of politics on teh interwebs.

"Special" in so far that it distorts, lies and character assassinates

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

How diverse is Southall's Asian community?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

How diverse is Southall's Asian community?

Dave

This data is either for the old or the new seat

Hindu: 12.4%
Muslim: 13.3%
Sikh: 23.2%

That is a % of the total population.

Thanks

[Democratic Hawk]

Full list of candidates for both elections:

Ealing Southall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283832.stm

What's this David Cameron's Conservatives lark ? He's not Indira Gandhi

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Full list of candidates for both elections:

Ealing Southall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283832.stm

What's this David Cameron's Conservatives lark ? He's not Indira Gandhi

Dave

If Cameron was Indira Gandhi, Gurcharan Singh certainly wouldn't have endorsed Lit!

The point I'm making is that David Cameron's Conservatives has that tone of 'cult of personality' about it, which has characterised the Indian National Congress

Gurcharan Singh is for Gurcharan Singh not Tony Lit nor David Cameron

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Speaking of Ealing Southall, spare a thought for the forgotten Southall voter, that is, your White-British Christian

I find it immensely troubling that none of the major parties are running a candidate from Southall's largest single ethno-religious demographic

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

More defections likely as Labour by-election campaign fractures

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2056549.ece

Dave

 

[Democratic Hawk]

Thoughts on Ealing Southall

1) Firstly, I'd fancy Labour's chances were the seat being fought on new boundaries rather than old since it loses two Conservative wards (Ealing Common and Walpole), as welll as 20.8% of another, Ealing Broadway, which seems strongly Conservative

In the 2006 Borough Elections, the aggregate vote total in these three wards were as follows:

Ealing Common: Con 40.5%; LD 37.5%; Green 11.9%; Lab 10.1%
Walpole: Con 37.0%; LD 28.5%; Lab 23.7%; Green 10.8%
Ealing Broadway: Con 54.1%; LD 17.2%; Lab 14.5%; Green 11.6%

2) Secondly, the 2006 Borough elections in Southall, although they favored Labour, they were by no means comfortably ahead of the Conservatives, which I have estimated as follows:

Labour 12,658 (37.89%)
Conservative 10,886 (32.59%)
Lib Dem 6,439 (19.28%)
Green 2,657 (7.95%)
Respect 763 (2.28%)

Since only 20.8% of Ealing Broadway is in the constituency, I've taken each party's total aggregate vote and multiplied by 0.208 to give an adjusted total

However, on new boundaries, the results point to a more significant Labour lead:

Labour 11,114 (45.94%)
Conservative 7,158 (29.58%)
Lib Dem 3,585 (14.82%)
Green 1,575 (6.51%)
Respect 763 (3.15%)

3) Given the possibility that the five Labour to Conservative defecting councillors might erode Labour support in the safe Labour wards of Lady Margaret (Jarnai Singh Jandu, Maininder Kaur Keith, Gurchuran Singh) and Southall Broadway (Jagdish Chander Gupta, Manjit Singh, the portents do not bode well for Virendra Kumar Sharma

In 2006, in Lady Margaret, Labour polled 57.1%to the Conservatives' 29.1%; and, in Southall Broadway, Labour polled 57.4% to the Conservatives' 34.6%

Depending, on the local strength of these defecting councillors, it is highly possible that Tony Lit shall gain votes at the expense of Sharma. Then again, it may not, depending on the extent to which Sikh voters identify with the Labour Party, rather than their local councillors. I suspect, however, given the evidence of communal feuding that party identification might come second to many Sikh voters

My prediction: Anything can happen in the by-election, though, were Labour to lose it, it should, in theory, given the new boundaries, revert to being a safe Labour seat at the next general election

4) Having earlier bemoaned that lack of a white candidate from either of the major parties considering Ealing Southall is 47.32% white and 38.53% Asian, things are now starting to make sense when you consider that the new constituency results in a demographic ''flip'', with Asians comprising 47.76% of the new constituency (this is total population) and whites, 37.60%

BTW, any one know whether the swing to the Conservatives in the 2006 borough elections was more against the government or, the then Labour controlled, Ealing Borough Council ?. Because if it was the latter, the by-election might not as bad for Labour

Finally, a quip from yours truly, what is it with this new-found love on the part of Gurcharan Singh and his acolytes? It's not like Tony Lit wears a turban

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Just when you thought the Ealing Southall by-election couldn't get any wierder...

It's just emerged that Lit donated Labour £4,800 last month.

And there's a nice picture of him smiling with Tony Blair, too. I think the Tories can kiss this by-election good-bye.

I'd like to think so

This by-election for me has two dream outcomes:

1) Labour hold the seat with the Conservatives coming a very distant second

2) Tony Lit, elected by the most narrow of margins over Labour, realises that come the next general election, on new boundaries, realises that he stands a cat in hell's chance of being re-elected and defects to Labour

Either scenario would be one big smack in the mush for Cameron, which would be nice

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not sure whether this Ealing Southall by-election is a Greek tragedy, from a Labour perspective, or a Roman farce, from a Tory one?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

It's safe to say that, as least as far as Southall politics go, Labour and the Tories are really one party, not two. Which is throwing away what should be a safe seat by running two candidates.

Hey, don't akin my party in with them lot .

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Vera backs Labour in Sedgefield

http://www.sedgefield-labour.com/images/uploads/166580/272f29f2-fbf2-a5f4-5d49-2b8d89774531.pdf

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The following post appeared on Tom Watson's blog earlier today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wonder what it could be?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The following post appeared on Tom Watson's blog earlier today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wonder what it could be?

Dave

Tony Lit defects to... well, anyone. That would be both surprising and completely expected.

If 'Tory' Lit wins it's by no means inconceivable that he would defect to ............ erm .......me thinks..... Labour because on new boundaries my money is on it returning to safe Labour status at the next general. It's safe Labour, as of 2005, because the Conservatives and Lib Dems more or less cancel each other out in the eastern wards. Of course, owt could happen in this by-election

I don't think there's an awful lot of substance to Lit, politically

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Re-Ealing Southall, given how ethnically split the vote appears to be, I wonder if there has been a good turnout among Black-British voters, who I'd have thought were overwhelmingly Labour. Turnout among them could decide whether Labour holds or doesn't

Isn't there a reliable white working-class Labour vote in the constituency?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thoughts on Ealing Southall

1) Firstly, I'd fancy Labour's chances were the seat being fought on new boundaries rather than old since it loses two Conservative wards (Ealing Common and Walpole), as welll as 20.8% of another, Ealing Broadway, which seems strongly Conservative

In the 2006 Borough Elections, the aggregate vote total in these three wards were as follows:

Ealing Common: Con 40.5%; LD 37.5%; Green 11.9%; Lab 10.1%
Walpole: Con 37.0%; LD 28.5%; Lab 23.7%; Green 10.8%
Ealing Broadway: Con 54.1%; LD 17.2%; Lab 14.5%; Green 11.6%

2) Secondly, the 2006 Borough elections in Southall, although they favored Labour, they were by no means comfortably ahead of the Conservatives, which I have estimated as follows:

Labour 12,658 (37.89%)
Conservative 10,886 (32.59%)
Lib Dem 6,439 (19.28%)
Green 2,657 (7.95%)
Respect 763 (2.28%)

Since only 20.8% of Ealing Broadway is in the constituency, I've taken each party's total aggregate vote and multiplied by 0.208 to give an adjusted total

However, on new boundaries, the results point to a more significant Labour lead:

Labour 11,114 (45.94%)
Conservative 7,158 (29.58%)
Lib Dem 3,585 (14.82%)
Green 1,575 (6.51%)
Respect 763 (3.15%)

3) Given the possibility that the five Labour to Conservative defecting councillors might erode Labour support in the safe Labour wards of Lady Margaret (Jarnai Singh Jandu, Maininder Kaur Keith, Gurchuran Singh) and Southall Broadway (Jagdish Chander Gupta, Manjit Singh, the portents do not bode well for Virendra Kumar Sharma

In 2006, in Lady Margaret, Labour polled 57.1%to the Conservatives' 29.1%; and, in Southall Broadway, Labour polled 57.4% to the Conservatives' 34.6%

Depending, on the local strength of these defecting councillors, it is highly possible that Tony Lit shall gain votes at the expense of Sharma. Then again, it may not, depending on the extent to which Sikh voters identify with the Labour Party, rather than their local councillors. I suspect, however, given the evidence of communal feuding that party identification might come second to many Sikh voters

My prediction: Anything can happen in the by-election, though, were Labour to lose it, it should, in theory, given the new boundaries, revert to being a safe Labour seat at the next general election

As you can see, I was pretty concerned about Labour's chances in Ealing Southall and, genuinely, thought Sharma was in trouble for two reasons:

1) The animosity of among certain Sikh Labour councillors to his candidacy, which culminated in the defection of five of them to the Conservative Party, towards his selection. I had concerns as to whether their consituents would vote Conservatives in truck loads

2) The 'relative' weakness of Labour in the constituency in 2006, compared with 2005. By my estimation, Labour polled 37.89% to the Conservatives' 32.59%, with the Lib Dems on 19.28%

So, what is telling is that not only was there a 5.24% swing to the Lib Dems in the by-election (from 2005), there was a significant swing from the Conservatives to Labour on 2006. The Labour vote rose by around 3.5%, while the Conservative vote tumbled by 10%, which for Labour can only be good

Apparently, Ealing Southall saw the lowest swing against a governing party held seat since the Conservatives held Beaconsfield in 1982, when the losing Labour candidate at the time was a young barrister by the name of Tony Blair

Virendra Sharma and Sedgefield's Phil Wilson will be re-elected at the next general election with substantially increased majorities

Dave