The Hill: Pryor leads Huckabee 49-42 in poll

[Democratic Hawk]

I know Mark Pryor personally, and he is a wonderful Senator.  Arkansas is a much more Democratic state than people give it credit for, and Pryor is very popular.  His dad served in the Senate for 24 years, and was also the governor.  If Hillary wins Arkansas (which I think she will), then Pryor should coast to reelection.

Yes, Arkansas is a very democratic state; however, I've found something that, initially, took me rather by surprise

Assuming all states allocated their Electoral votes in the same way as Maine and Nebraska, Arkansas would have been the only 'Dixie' state not to have cast a single vote for Kerry. Then it occurred to me, that she has no African-American majority congressional districts

Pryor should be re-elected easily enough in 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Pryor is a horrible person, but he is still much better than Huckabee.

He's the right kind of Democrat for Arkansas. That's all that matters

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Plus it would be very, very hard to create a black-dominated congressional district.  Few counties at all are black-majority.

I tried creating a black majority district made out of state senate/house districts (I forget which). I got a district with a 47% African-American population.

Here's the map:



So yes, Preston is right. Arkansas is the sancutary for White Dems in the South.

Probably the grey one I suspect. 

I suspect the green one since it borders the Mississippi. Most of the counties both sides of the river seem presidentially Democratic, and I dare say with large African American populations and it looks like it includes Pulaski, which has a significant minority African-American population

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Would that map harm Boozman in AR-03 [assuming yellow would be 03]

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I think the map would harm Boozman.  The Ozark GOP strongholds are for the most part cutout and replaced with politically traditional Arkansas counties.

Would all three Democrats be pretty safe in the others?

Dave