English Local Elections 2006

[Democratic Hawk]

Another local poll... this time by ICM, again, and published in (um...) the Sunday Express. No data on number of people asked etc. or MoE etc.

Con 29%, Lab 27%, Lib 22%, 6% Grn, 4% BNP, 3% UKIP

I hope it is a local elections poll. If it were national, it would be rather worrying

Labour's challenge is to get out its vote but I'm not too worried if the party does encounter some significant losses. Local elections were bad, at times, for Labour during the last Parliament but they did go on to win the 2005 general after all

It's certainly been a bad week for the government , which is sure to be reflected in this Thursday's locals. The question is to what extent, only time will tell

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

If the Conservatives make gains in places, which they ought never to have lost in the first instance, I dare say I can live with that for local elections anyway - given the government's recent woes

A good hiding, to some extent, might be a good thing for Labour

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Not as bad as I'd as I expected thus far. The only spectacular Conservative council gain is Bassetlaw; though I'm surprised Crawley had been Labour since 1971

Labour has suffered losses but they were to be expected

I've been flicking between BBC and SKY

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The only spectacular Conservative council gain is Bassetlaw;

It isn't actually; they made a load of fluke gains in 2004 making it very hard to lose this time round. Labour will get it back when those seats are up again...

So more of a fluke than it is spectacular then

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

4. Pretty much, although it wasn't so much the homosexual aspect of the Oaten scandal that caused the problem... more the whole excrement-fetish thing...

I wondered what it was. Ugh

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

These results could have been a good news if David Cameron was anything more than a carbon copy of Blair.

Speaking, as a mildly center-left UK voter, I'm rather happy we have something of a center-right main opposition party, as opposed to a wing nut job one . That said, as a Labour Party member, I'd love a wing nut main opposition party (because that's exactly what they would remain). Things are very different now to the 1980s

In the Macmillan era, I might even have been a paid up member of the Conservative Party but your heroine put me off them for life and for that I'm eternally thankful

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

So what was the overall popular vote for each party?

Conservatives 40%; Lib Dem 27%; Labour 26%. Basically, the Lib Dems and Labour are at the same level as in the 2004 locals, the Conservatives up 2%. Labour went on to win the General Election in 2005

I wonder how many seats, nationally, went uncontested by Labour because the failure of all three major parties to contest all seats can skew the popular vote

Indeed, its not unsual for general elections, local elections and European parliamentary elections to produce rather diverse results. Since 1997, Labour has performed poorly in European elections, especially, and in local elections in recent years. Yet the party has retained a virtual hegemony in the metropolitan districts at the parliamentary level since 1997. Locally, in the metropolitan districts, Labour strength has been eroding since around 2000

So what you have is voters happy to elect Conservative councils and Labour MPs, which was not unusual during the late 1980s and early 1990s, but reversed

As things stand though, a hung parliament is a real possibility unless the mood shifts in Labour's favor. The Conservatives seem certain to make significant gains, especially, in outer London and the Southeast but they still have a mountain to climb for a parliamentary majority. It won't much for Labour to lose its majority - the 2005 election resulted in a lot of super Lab/Con marginals - but it will take a lot for the Conservatives to gain one

Dave