I know I'm not American but .................

[Democratic Hawk]

If I ran for President (assuming I was a Senator or Governor of Georgia - my ancestral state), how do you think I'd do.

Some of you may be more aware of my views more than others

I consider myself a moderate Democrat (liberals might consider me conservative, however, and conservatives might consider me liberal)

Basically, I'm centre-left on economics and centre-right on social issues making me a bit populist and on foreign policy/defence I'm a hawk

If you have any questions on my views, I'll be more than happy to answer them.

I'll be back with a summary of where I stand

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

On these issues, I am...

Law and Order - Centre Right

I oppose death penality but support the rights of states to determine whether they want it or not and I support the three strikes mandatory sentencing

Economics - Centre Left

Economics: I'm a "new liberal" in the Keynesian tradition but not anti-business (see taxation), as well as being pro-labour unions. I support the national minimum wage

Environment - Centre Right

Green fields don't create jobs!

Ethnic Minority Rights - Centre

I'm broadly supportive of full civil rights for all citizens but I don't agree with positive discrimination (i.e. ethnic quotas in employment)

Gay & Womens Rights - Centre Left

I oppose same-sex marriages as sanctified by God but support civil unions. Same-sex couples to have the same rights as any other married couple

Foreign Policy - Centre Right

I'm a hawk and in the event of diplomacy failing would support redress without UN authorisation. The interests of the United States would not be compromised. What's good for the USA is good for the world!

Abortion - Centre Right

Personally, pro-life; however, I accept that their are occasions when abortion is necessary. So I support abortion as a matter of necessity and not a matter of choice

Drugs - Centre Left

I'm pretty much anti-drugs but accept that 'soft' drugs should be legalised for medical purposes and, possibly, decriminalised for recreational use

Taxation - Centre Left

I support progressive taxation and oppose flat rate - but I wouldn't tax punitively. Companies not outsourcing jobs and those paying above the minimum wage would be given incentives

Defence - Right

I don't favour reducing defence spending from existing levels and support the war in Iraq

I'm Episcopalian (Anglican) - probably closer to its evangelical (Low Church) tradition than to its Anglo-Catholic (High Church) tradition. My faith does inform my poltics and I embrace the Social Gospel (i.e. Christ's outreach to the poor) and the principle of social justice is very important to me

I support Christian prayer in public schools (though non-Christians and atheists and secularists can opt out)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

You've also been on a super Democratic streek and against almost all Republicans lately. If that changed you might win, if not you'd have a lot of trouble.

Me, bash Republicans? I'm not exactly flattering towards liberal's either

Gotta admit I am a little partisan though

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Red States = Safe Hawk.
Grey = Possible.
Blue = Forget about it.

Not bad. I'm pleased you have me winning my 'home' state. If I went around in a battle bus throughout the South berating   the 'party of Abe Lincoln', would it help me down there ?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Heh, Dave, you're pretty much a moderate Republican like myself.

All being well, plenty of moderate Republicans would vote for me then

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

If he supports the Iraq war, he'd get destroyed on the left.

So what.  A few hundred thousand votes goes to the greens in solid dem states.  I don't see that doing much damage.

Jfern is right, I'd lose some 'dovish' votes on the left - but I'll be targeting my campaign at the mainstream and would probably garner greater support from moderates, as well as a significant plurality of Republicans and conservatives than more 'bona fide' liberal candidates. I've made no secret of the fact I feel that the Democratic Party's biggest mistake was the abandonment of a Trumanite foreign/defence policy

My campaign message would be a fine blend of economic liberalism (based on social justice) and social populism. What support I'd lose from liberal doves, I'd hope to counter by gaining support from more conservative Democrats, who've been trending GOP. 11% of registered Democrats voted for GWB and frankly, they were enough to give him the victory

Rest assured yours truly would take on the Left and win . The Democratic Party must confront its dovish base

While, I'm on, were I elected president, in the event of a Supreme vacancy, I'll be minded to either keep the status quo (as a liberal retires, a liberal is appointed, etc) or I'd seek to weed out the ideologues (liberal and conservative). America needs consensual stability on the Supreme Court

On foreign policy, I'd aggessively push for a pro-active United Nations, with America and her allies at the helm because in additional to being the US president, I'd take my role as 'the' global leader very seriously ; however, American interests would never be compromised and if, it was necessary to act without a UN mandate, I would

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Red-Solid for you
Grey- Toss-up
Blue- Solid for Opponent

I'm glad to see you consider me competitive in the South as I clearly would hope to be - even if I only won a couple of states

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wow, I disagree with you on almost everything.

If you got the nomination, which I would see as strange for the Democratic Party to nominate basically a liberal Republican, I believe that you would win, simply because you are in essence fairly Republican. =p

I'm confused. Who's the liberal Republican here, me or Cashcow?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The predictions here are within the bounds of reason. Why is Georgia safe hawk?

Ah, but that's were my secret weapon comes in - Zell Miller. The thing is I'd be reluctant for him to campaign for me anywhere else - but he could get some conservative Georgia Democrats and Republicans on side. I guess not many Democrats are too happy with him - but he could play well in the South. I'd keep a pretty 'big tent' and would hope to unite all wings of the Democratic Party behind my candidacy. Sadly, I'll lose votes on the Left -  but I'd hope to offset this with gains among GOP demographics. As President, I certainly wouldn't want to be in hoc to the ideologues (liberal or conservative)

I'll do what I think is right and I'll stand or fall on that

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, this map is very optimistic and assumes the GOP candidate is 'dead on arrival' in that he is in too conservative and I'm moderate enough to bring on ship moderate Republicans/conservatives

There's a few close shaves in the South but I've won my home state (Georgia), with a comforatble 59-41 margin. It's no surprise having bagged 70% of moderate vote and 30% of the conservative vote along with most independents and around 25% of Republicans. See, Democrats can be moderate enough to do well down here because I talk and act tough on the issues that matter

I've won Florida comfortably too by a margin of 53-47, easily sweeping the south-east of the state and polling very well in mid-state and not too badly even in the panhandle - for a Democrat, that is

A few southern states are very close - but I carry Arkansas (52-48), Lousiana (51-49), North Carolina (51-49) and Virginia (51-49); while the GOP takes South Carolina and Tennessee by narrow margins

In the Mid-West, I manage to make the swing states even "bluer". I pick up Iowa comfortably (54-46), as well as taking Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin out of "swing" state status. I take Missouri (52-48) and over, in the West, I take Nevada 49.8% to 48.7%

Naturally, my moderation and deliberate strategy of reaching out beyond the base has cost me votes among liberals, especially in the Pacific West and North East - but not enough to affect my chances since the support I've lost, I've more than regained elsewhere

I comfortably sweep the North East (consolidating the party's position in Pennsylvania by 55-45) and I take West Virginia by 55-45 - which just goes to show that some moderates are adverse when it comes to supporting liberals. I get 95% of the Democratic vote compared with Kerry's 70% in 2004, as well as significant support from moderate Republicans. Meanwhile, I score victories of 60% and over in Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island. DC votes 91% Democratic.
However, despite my Clintonesque-victory, I lose New Hampshire to the GOP by 51-49. My populism didn't play too well there

It's been a hard campaign with me from the outside refusing to write off the South. I've targetted the "red" states and proved my metal; while my running mate has proved popular in shoring up the Democratic base

Today, it's a new era. I have garnered the most formidable coalition since FDR (after eight years of gross fiscal incompetence and ideological folly).

My overall margin of victory is 54-43, with 3% going to minor parties

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Final map:



Afterword, my overwhelming victory in Georgia has seen former Senator Max Cleland (a true American hero) defeat Saxby Chambliss in a re-run of 2002 by 53/47

It was either persuade Max or persuade Zell to run - and I'm delighted Max was forthcoming in doing so

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Prior to these elections, the US Senate was as follows:

Republican 53
Democrats 46
Independent 1 (Bernie Sanders)

In 2004, the Dems gained two seats with Bob Casey defeating GOP incumbent Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania - sorry, Phil and picked-up the open seat in Tennessee (or am I just dreamin )while retiring Vermont Independent Jim Jeffords was replaced by Congressman Bernie Sanders

Todays, were as follows:

Alabama (Rep hold)
Alaska (Rep hold)
Arkansas (Dem hold)
Colorado (Rep hold)
Delaware (Dem hold)
Georgia Dem pick-up
Idaho (Rep hold)
Illinois (Dem hold)
Iowa (Dem hold)
Kansas (Rep hold)
Kentucky (Rep hold)
Louisiana (Dem hold)
Maine (Rep hold)
Massachusetts (Dem hold)
Michigan (Dem hold)
Minnesota Dem pick-up
Mississippi (Rep hold)
Missouri (Rep hold)
Montana (Dem hold)
Nebraska (Dem hold)
New Hampshire Dem pick-up
New Jersey (Dem hold)
New Mexico (Rep hold)
North Carolina (Rep hold)
Oklahoma (Rep hold)
Oregon (Rep hold)
Rhode Island (Dem hold)
South Carolina Dem pick-up - due to ultra-right candidate splitting the GOP vote
Tennessee (Rep hold)
Texas (Rep hold)
Virginia (Rep hold)
West Virginia (Dem hold)
Wyoming (Rep hold)

New Senate: 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 1 Independent

The House remains narrowly Republican 221 to 214

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Generally you sound pretty reasonable.

Just where do you stand on the Right to Keep and Bear Arms?

I'm supportive of the Second Amendment and clearly believe in the rights of the people to keep and bear arms

Basically, I believe that this right be given to any able bodied citizen over eighteen years of age, with proper age restrictions for purchasing a firearm and ammunition

The question is where, and if, do you draw a line. Personally, I support the rights of people to possess handguns, rifles and shotguns - however, I don't think that those behind the Second Amendment meant individual's having the right to bear nuclear warheads, tanks, bombers, etc

So, if the Second Amendment applies to the modern equivalent of arms that were around at the time of its passing, then fine

Personally, I don't own a gun but wouldn't deny the rights of individuals to do so; however, with individual rights come responsibilities and I have a pretty much a zero tolerance when it comes to gun-related felonies

I didn't support the Assault Weapons Ban - criminals would get their hands on them (illegal or not), so it's best if the purchasing, and obtainance, of arms is done under thje full auspices of the law

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks for the clarification.

Let me suggest to you that some people DO own tanks.  They are primarily retired military personnel who served in tanks.  They restore and love showing off their toys.

Also, there are privately owned bombers (again primarily owned by former Air Force personnel) who also love restoring and showing off their toys.

I remember there was a contest about four years ago in which a company offered a Harrier as the top prize. 

If I ever was rich enough to afford it, I would love to own (and fly) a Catalina amphibian (a patrol bomber).

As long as they are toys and not weapons I don't see any harm

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Hawk your family is orginally from GA?

Yep. The Georgia connection goes back to my maternal grandfather

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Environment - Centre Right

Green fields don't create jobs!

Sometimes they do - I mean, you might need someone to take a lawn mower to said field, and that creates a demand for lawnmowers as well, and then there's sports players, they do their job on green fields.

To a lesser extent, I suppose they do

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I think I might have overstated my chances, so I'm going to estimate my share of the vote for each state and predict each state again

The scenario is moderate Democrat (left-of-center, economically and moderately centre-right on social issues ) versus the hard-core conservative Republican ticket of Sen. Travis Logan of Oklahoma and Gov. Travis Logan of Mississippi

It's just that I've got myself winning southern states that Clinton didn't even win. So what I'm going to do is take the exit poll data from 2004 - look at Kerry's figures for party ID and ideology (as a gage), with me as a moderate rather than a liberal fairing better than Kerry among independents/ Republicans and moderates/conservatives (generally). However, in "blue states" (esp. New England and the Pacific Coast) - a Green Party candidate (left/left) syphons off some of the liberal base

Hypothetically, I'm a former Governor of Georgia and into four-years of a six year Senate term. I succeeded retiring Sen. Zell Miller.  Approval ratings as Governor peaked at 78% (average 69%), and my current approval rating as Senator is 70%. Ideologically, I'm a moderate liberal populist. My running mate is Gov. Andrew Afleitch of Pennsylvania, who's moderately libertarian

The Greens are Rich Nydall of Vermont and Catherine March of California

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 6.00pm EST:

Indiana is called for Cartwright/ Logan (R) and Kenticky is too close to call

Tally: Cartwright/Logan (R) 11 -  Gray/Afleitch (D) 0



Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 7.00pm (EST) in Florida (EST), Georgia, New Hampshire (EST), South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia

Polls close (CST) Indiana (CST) and Kentucky (CST)

Florida, Georgia and Vermont are called for Gray/Afleitch (D) and Kentucky is called for Cartwright/Logan (R)

New Hampshire, South Carolina and Virginia are too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 19 / Gray Afleitch (D) 45



Encouraged by close calls in Dixie. GOP must be in trouble

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 7.30pm (EST), North Carolina (EST), Ohio and West Virginia

Ohio and West Virginia called for Gray/Afleitch (D) and North Carolina too close to call

Tally: Cartwright/Logan (R) 19 and Gray/Afleitch (D) 70



Looking good. Roll on the North East declaring

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 8.00 pm (EST) in Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (EST), New Hampshire (EST), New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee (EST)

Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachussetts, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are called for Gray/Affleith (D)

South Carolina declares for Cartwright/Logan (R)

Michigan and Tennessee too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 27 and Gray/Afleitch (D) 142



Running strong in the Democratic North East - despite relatively good polling by the Greens

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 7.00pm (CST) in Alabama, Florida (CST), Illinois, Kansas (CST), Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee (CST) and Texas (CST)

Polls close at 6.00pm (MST) Kansas

Illinois is called for Gray/Afleitch (D). Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi and Oklahoma are called for Cartwright/Logan (R)

Missouri, Tennessee and Texas too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) and Gray/Afleitch (D) 166



Can I lose?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 8.30pm (EST) North Carolina

Polls close at 7.30pm (CST) Arkansas

Arkansas is called for Gray/Afleitch (D)

North Carolina too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 55and Gray/Afleitch (D) 172



Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Polls close at 8.00pm (EST) in New York and Rhode Island

Polls close at 8.00pm (CST) in Louisiana, Michigan (CST), Minnesota, Nebraska (CST), Souh Dakota (CST) and Wisconsin

Polls close at 7.00pm (MST) in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska (MST), New Mexico, South Dakota (MST), Texas (MST) and Wyoming

New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico are called for Gray/Afleitch (D). Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming are called for Carwright/Logan (R)

Louisiana, Arizona, Colorado and Texas are too close to call

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 66 and Gray/Afleitch (D) 249



Nearly there

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Update:

Missouri declares for Gray/Afleitch (D) and takes the Democratic tally to 260. Shortly, after Virginia declares for Gray/Afleitch (D) taking the total to 273 and the Virginian-born wife of Senator Gray, Lucy Fuller Gray is First Lady-elect. Tennessee, Texas and Arizona are called for Cartwright/Logan (R)

Tally Cartwright/Logan (R) 121 and Gray/Affleitch (D) 273 (and there it is Senator David John Gray of Georgia is President-elect of the United States of America



Dave