Roughly how much of a nation-wide margin does Tories need to win the election? It's quite much isn't it?
Look at it this way on
www.electoralcalculus.co.uk, I used the following hypothetical voting percentages in an attempt to answer your question:
Conservative 41.5% - 324 seats; Labour 32% - 244 seats; and Lib Dems 20% - 47 seats and Others 31 seats
Conservative overall majority of 2 with a 9.5% lead in the PV; however, I haven't taken account of any tactical voting
On the other hand, the Tories need only to about 1.5% ahead of Labour to, theoretically, deprive Labour of its overall majority; however, Labour would easily remain the largest single party. The Tories would need to be about 5.5% above Labour nationally to become the largest party
Dave
