If George Allen won the 2006 VA race, Would he have won in 2012?

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

If Allen had won in 2006 he would have been on John McCain's short list, and may well have been McCain's VP nominee.  Had a McCain/Allen ticket won, Allen would be in the Presidential mix today.  Had that ticket lost, Allen would have definitely run in 2012, and would have run from a position of strength.  He would be running from a swing state that the GOP needed to win back.

If he had not been McCain's running mate, Allen would have run in 2012, but he would have been seen as a guy who was running for President because he couldn't get re-elected.  There have been a number of candidates in that position.  Mayor John V. Lindsay (D, 1972), Sen. Fred Harris (D, 1972), Rep. Bob Dornan (R, 1996), Sen. John Edwards (D, 2004), Gov. Mitt Romney (R, 2008), and possibly others are examples of folks who ran for President because they didn't believe that they could be reelected.  Only Romney ran while a non-incumbent, having opted not to run two years before the 2008 election.  I can't think of a single candidate who ran for President to avoid the oblivion that would come with a re-election defeat that ended up saving their career by that route.