Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
Posts: 25,985
|
|
« on: March 05, 2017, 09:13:45 AM » |
|
GA, AZ, and TX have been moving toward the Democrats due to demographic changes. Of the 2012 Obama states, only OH has been manifesting a definitive trend toward the GOP (in the way MO has). GA becomes more black; it's move toward the Democrats is part of an ongoing shift. AZ and TX are becoming more Hispanic, but it is not certain that some of their shift is due to Hispanic Republicans there NOT voting for Trump that would return to the GOP for another Presidential candidate, or who may support Trump in 2020 should he resolve his issues with the Mexican-American community in those states (not out of the question).
I view the results in IA, PA, MI, and the closeness of MN to be unique reactions to the specific appeals Trump made to a specific group of voters common to those states (white, mostly unionized, workers who have endured displacement). NAFTA has the Clintons' fingerprints on it and those voters blame NAFTA for their problems. This election shows the "potential" for realignment, but realignment won't occur until these voters reject the Democratic party for good. This is not a given, but it is a possibility.
|