Is Iowa a lost cause for democrats?

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Iowa is an idiosyncratic state in many ways.  It was one of McGovern's better states and one of Mondale's best.  On the other hand, it went backward for the Democrats, going for Ford over Carter.  It was at the national average or just a wee bit ahead for the Democrats in the last 4 elections in a row, so the shift to Trump is kind of amazing.  To go from the national average for the Democrats plus 1 to a 12 points ahead of the nation GOP popular vote is remarkable, and it begs some questions.

Iowa and New Hampshire are somewhat comparable (each went Republican once for Bush 43).  Both are somewhat conservative, but also somewhat dovish and anti-war.  If you told me in 1972 that NH would be more Democratic than IA, I'd have been a cynic, but there are some clear factors that show why IA has diverged from NH:

1.  Religion:  Iowa has a more significant Evangelical community than NH, and this is not offset by conservative Catholics in NH.  NH's secular Republicans have been turned off by the rise of Evangelicals in the GOP, whereas IA's have not been.

2.  Rurality:  Iowa is a farming state, whereas NH has become more of a suburb of Boston than it ever was before.  NH has small towns, but not the extensive farming IA has.

3.  Presence of elected Democrats:  Over the years, IA's Democratic Party has proven inept.  It's lost its majority in its House delegation long ago, it nominated the incompetent Bruce Braley who got blown out by Joni Ernst, the Governorship is back in GOP hands, and the legislature is Republican.  NH, on the other hand, now elects two (2) Senators, two Representatives, and, while it lost the Governorship in 2016, it's the Democrats with the stronger stable of candidates.  Maggie Hassan (D) defeated Kelly Ayotte (R) in the 2016 Senate race, no easy feat.  It is impossible to imagine any of Iowa's current Democrats oust a GOP incumbent of Ayotte's stature in Iowa anytime soon.