What would a Rubio electoral map have looked like? (user search)
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  What would a Rubio electoral map have looked like? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What would a Rubio electoral map have looked like?  (Read 6712 times)
Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries
Fuzzy Bear
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« on: January 08, 2017, 10:14:33 PM »
« edited: January 14, 2017, 11:08:43 AM by Fuzzy Bear »



Clinton/Kaine (D) 279 EV
Rubio/Kasich (R) 259 EV

Rubio is nerdy and smarmy.  At no time did Rubio come off as anything other than the Estabishment's Favorite Management Trainee.  He had no experience, yet he was still very much viewed as an insider.  And rightly so; there is nothing "outsider" about Marco Rubio's career, which has, at every step, been advanced by powerful insiders.
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Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries
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« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2017, 11:24:05 AM »

People underestimate Rubio's unlikability.  2016 was an anti-establishment year, and Rubio reeks of the establishment.  He owes his career to powerful special interests, and until 2016, he had never won FL with a majority (he won with under 50% against two candidates running to the left of him in 2010).  He was a first term Senator with a horrible attendance record who came off as the Establishment's favorite Management Trainee, and who served the purpose of advancing a kind of false sense of "diversity".  A smarmy little puke.  2016 wasn't the year of smarmy little pukes; it was the year of rebellion against national elites of all kinds, and Rubio was not destined to do well in this environment, period.
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Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries
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« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2017, 03:36:48 PM »

Rubio wouldn't have lost IA in the GE, but he probably wouldn't have won NV either. I think it would have been Romney 2012 + FL + IA + OH + WI + ME-02 + maybe CO + maybe PA.

Well, keep in mind that ME-02 is lepage/trump land, but besides that, rubio would have problems in CO due to his federal drug position, and Hillary would've been able to run a more effective rustbelt campaign without the russian hacks, if it was a more conventional race, allowing her to consolidate more votes from bernie supporters. She'd remind people of rubio's positions on the auto bailouts, etc. and how it's the same as romney's. She does that and she is much more likely to keep the blue wall in tact causing an electoral problem for him.

*Kasich is a more unique kind of candidate with the specific type of regional appeal for the area, which is why they shouldn't be grouped in together electorally. Remember, Kasich was going to do the OH-PA-Upstate NY route, which is very similar to what Trump did, Jeb and Rubio don't have the same appeal in that corridor, it's highly probable that Jeb/Rubio would've tried to push through NV anyway, and run into EV issues and come up short electorally.

I must have missed the part where Putin's agents forced Hillary to make the deplorable comment and not campaign aggressively in WI or MI.



She was talking about Trump voters in that speech, remember, she was trying to court upper-class republicans, and she only made those decisions in the context of Trump.

People underestimate Rubio's unlikability.  2016 was an anti-establishment year, and Rubio reeks of the establishment.  He owes his career to powerful special interests, and until 2016, he had never won FL with a majority (he won with under 50% against two candidates running to the left of him in 2010).  He was a first term Senator with a horrible attendance record who came off as the Establishment's favorite Management Trainee, and who served the purpose of advancing a kind of false sense of "diversity".  A smarmy little puke.  2016 wasn't the year of smarmy little pukes; it was the year of rebellion against national elites of all kinds, and Rubio was not destined to do well in this environment, period.

Rubio won in 2010 as an insurgent candidate, upsetting Crist in the gop primary. His voting record in the Senate has been consistently conservative. He is very knowledgeable on a wide array of issues and played a key role in risk corridors for insurance companies in the Obamacare battle. His one flaw was his role in Gang of Eight; he honestly thought he could help craft an immigration deal until Schumer stabbed him in the back.

The Rubio hate is not borne out by data. He was very well liked during the GOP primary but didn't gain traction due to the relentless attacks by Jeb, divided field, lack of ground game in the early states, and the debate debacle against Christie.

In his re-election in 2016, Rubio outperformed Trump and won 48% of latinos and 17% of blacks.

He was part of the tea party wave. Schumer didn't stab him in the back, that bill was supposed to pass and it was intended to not have any teeth, it failed because Cantor was primaried.

Other way around, rubio only lasted as long as he did, due to his refusal to attack Trump, Walker, etc. collapsed when they did, and rubio also collapsed when he did. His whole debate strategy and campaign strategy from day 1 was simply reciting rehearsed lines and using scripted responses to select questions, this was well-known on the campaign trail and reported by journalists, all Christie did was call him out on it. Christie never did the same for Cruz, because he had respect for Cruz as a person and a leader, even if he disagreed with him more on policy. All Jeb was doing was calling rubio out on his refusal to attack Trump.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kucRXG26htU

Isakson in his GA senate race won the same percentage of blacks, he performed the usual percentage that republicans normally get with non-hispanic cubans, his main advantage is in FL particular demographic with cubans, by the way his senate opponent was abandoned by the dems who used the money for that race to use in other races, had they given him the full-support they originally intended, those margins would've been reduced for him. Burr 'outperformed' by a similar margin.

The underlined is not true.  Crist was the overwhelming GOP Primary fave at first, but before the filing date, Rubio ran a campaign amongst the base which gave him a significant lead to the point where Crist had 3 choices:  Re-enter the Gubenatorial race, buck the odds against Rubio (who was now the Tea Party fave), or run as an Independent.  Crist chose option #3 and was vague as to whether or not he'd be a member of the GOP caucus, but he was the stronger candidate to the point where many Democrats (and many Democratic officials) abandoned Democrat Kendrick Meek, the Dems Senate nominee, urging Dems to vote for Crist as the better choice to dump Crist.  Rubio won 49% of the vote, not overwhelming; Crist got 29% and Meek got 21%.

Rubio's never been overwhelmingly strong in FL.  If he were, he'd have defeated Trump, period.
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