Westchester and Nassau

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Suffolk County, next to Nassau, is trending back to the GOP.

Suffolk has more Democratic officeholders than Nassau, but is less Democratic at the state and national level.  Trump carried it by 9 points 52-43, a county Obama carried twice.  Andrew Cuomo actually lost it by 2 points in 2014.

Suffolk is more working class than Nassau, the Hamptons nonwithstanding.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Being from Nassau County originally, it's changed a lot over the years.  It's not nearly as white as it used to be, but Hillary's luster did wear off a bit over the years.  Suffolk was the far bigger swing.  The biggest race in Nassau this year was the House race, the first time in a while it was a real horse race.

Where in Nassau were you from?


Suffolk did swing considerably more, which tends to make sense considering it has more of a white working class population than Nassau.  I can't pull it up now, but Newsday had a precinct map up, and it did seem like Mastic & Shirley had some of the strongest trump swings.

Mastic and Shirley is the kind of place with lots of WWC Trump-type voters.  Very much unlike the nearby Hamptons.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

This seems to just be following a trend that's been happening over the last 10 years or so.  Inner cities going even more overwhelmingly democratic and the inner suburbs going democratic, the outer suburbs going republican and the rural areas going very republican.  Basically the further you get out from a city the more republican it gets.  If it's a big city like New York or DC it takes longer to reach the republican ring around the city.  If it's a small city like Pittsburgh the republican ring is closeby.

Nassau and Westchester both border on NYC. So, in this particular case, your explanation does not apply.

Westchester borders the Bronx, Nassau borders Queens.

There is no equivalent to Yonkers in Nassau.

Nassau County has a local/national dichotomy.  It is Democratic in national elections, but it has a strong local GOP that was the one of the last "boss-driven" organization in NY. 

Suffolk County is more Democratic on the local level, but less Democratic in state and national elections.