By admitting that Rubio had a bad moment, but emphasizing that Rubio recovered and had good second half of the debate. I'm not sure if there was a Luntz focus group tonight, but if there was, I wouldn't be surprised if Rubio's answers on what it means to be a conservative and abortion scored well with Republican primary voters.
I don't think anything can be salvaged between today and Tuesday. Tomorrow's pretty much a dead day in the campaign, leaving only Monday to really change message. I'd pivot to focus on Rubio's accomplishments in Washington and Tallahassee, if possible.
Luntz's focus groups have already been exposed as rigged for Rubio. I'm sure he'd have said he won the robot moment too.
In other words, let's dispel with this fiction that Frank Luntz doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.
Luntz's focus group's determination that Rubio won the last Fox News debate was confirmed by the post-debate polling - and, ultimately, the Iowa caucus results. I don't think they are rigged for Rubio.
Most of the Democrats and ironic Democrat-leaning Trump supporters on this board don't understand Republican debate audiences and can't tell who is giving the most effective debate answers. Rubio's canned talking point answers resonate with the ordinary Republican primary voter more than most of the other Republican candidates.
Exactly this ^^^
Christie has always had strong debate performances but when have they helped them? Remember, Atlas thought John Kasich won the first debate (myself included), this just goes to show that we are VERY out of touch with the average Republican primary voter, so I think any attempt to analyze the effect of Rubio's gaffe needs to be done through the lens of a Republican primary voter.
This will stump his momentum, sure, but there's no way it will end his campaign.
Rubio looked BAD. I can't think of any candidate who was skewered in the manner Christie skewered Rubio go on to win the nomination.
If I were the campaign manager, I'd shift gears in the following manner:
(A) Having quadrupled down on the argument that Obama Knows What He's Doing, I'd urge Rubio to own it and turn the tables. I'd point out how the whole field of candidates have perpetually underestimated Barack Obama, only to find themselves on the short end of the stick. I'd point out how Obama has outsmarted mainstream Repubicans time and again in a tactical sense. That's one of the anti-Establishment's main points; the fact that despite electing Republicans, Obama keeps stymieing them.
(B) As a natural follow-up to point (A) here, I'd urge Rubio to expand on the issue of Obama's attempts to be DELIBERATELY TRANSFORMATIVE as a theme to appeal to religious and cultural conservatives. This is a point important to them, and Rubio has a real opening here. These folks don't want America changing, and Rubio can attack folks like Christie of being insufficiently concerned about this issue. He can point out that he is an immigrant from an immigrant group who came to America in the tradition of Ellis Island immigrants, valuing freedom and fleeing Communist oppression, and not from a tradition of merely wanting to take from America, while harboring a grudge against it. He can point out that it was Obama that managed public opinion to where America's views on SSM have, indeed, been transformed. He can cite Obama as an agent of transforming America into a society where there is disincentive for family formation, and make coherent arguments as to how conservative policies that encourage family formation make for a more stable society.
(C) I would advise Marco Rubio that he needs to go all out to smoosh Christie. He can attack Christie by comparing himself to Abraham Lincoln while comparing Christie to Stephen A. Douglas. Lincoln was never a Governor before he became President. Oh, and by the way, Jimmy Carter was a Governor of Georgia, and a celebrated Governor to boot; he was the Governor that told Georgians that the time for racial discrimination was over. "How'd that work out, Chris?" he could say. He can; indeed, he MUST point out how Christie overinflates his credentials in anti-terrorism. "Christie: Overinflating himself. Again." Given what Christie weighs, even after bariatric surgery, this would be devastating. He could be photographed working out, in comparison to Fat Slob Christie. He needs to attack Christie, even though Christie isn't his main obstacle, because Christie made him look BAD, and he has to take care of business.
Rubio's been exposed as a man of limited accomplishments, and he can't really respond to this. I don't know if he can pull off what I proposed here, but that's his pathway to recovery. All eyes are on Rubio right now to see how he handles being made to look bad. We're not at "Oops!" just yet, but we're heading there at warp speed. If Rubio can turn this around, he'll be a better pol than I've ever given him credit for. As a campaign manager, my job would be to reframe Rubio's campaign by reframing Rubio as being the only guy in the race who really "gets it". This is not as difficult as it seems, but it is tough, and it's the only path Rubio can take to avoid being drowned by the others.
