I'm not worried about this seat, unless the Dem candidate is terrible and the GOP one is awesome, it'll stay Democratic.
Every district below Dutchess/Ulster Counties in New York has a Democratic representative, except NY-13, which has every policeman, fireman & cranky Italian in NYC (not all Italians, just the conservative cranky ones), and Peter King's district, which will be up for grabs when he retires, which can't happen soon enough. That King didn't lose in '06 or '08 is a travesty.
Supposedly NY-1 has a GOP rep but I think that's a fluke from low turnout 2014 & Cuomo's underwhelming re-election. The far east end of the Island is extremely wealthy and socially liberal, Randy Altschuler Jr. will be swept out in the next Dem wave.
The Hamptons are full of rich liberals. But NY-1 also includes much of the Town of Brookhaven, which is the largest Town in Suffolk County and much more working-class Republican than the Hamptons. It's a marginal district at best, although the area has elected Democrats for most of the time since 1960. It's a district that has seen two (2) Democrats and two (2) Republicans lose re-election, and Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) is not a particularly strong incumbent.
