Emerson has a 2 point GOP bias. Remember to take that into account.
Biases for pollsters are not necessarily the same from year to year. You should not just blindingly add +2 to a poll on that basis. It is true that 538 for example makes adjustments to polls, but they do so on the basis of a consistently applied methodology which on average is neutral. I don't see you going into all the other threads for polls where this would shift things the other direction and consistently reminding everyone to "take into account the Dem bias," and if you are not doing that, you cannot validly do so here.
Party ID for each state:
AZ: R+4
GA: R+5
MI: Even
MN: D+1
NV: D+3
PA: R+1
WI: R+3
All of these except for NV are too R-leaning.
Party ID is not a stable variable. You are doing literally the same thing as Republican Romney 2012 unskewers.
It can be sensible to look at things other things such as recalled vote in a previous election (2020) as a sanity check, but just because party ID is a bit off from what you might expect does not mean that a poll is wrong.
Emerson predicted Senators Masters, Oz and Laxalt last cycle. They also predicted Ron Johnson and Ted Budd winning by 5 points when they won by 1 and 3 respectively. Forgive me for thinking Emerson is crap. Emerson is systematically off as a pollster at the moment
