IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[dspNY]

I think this is an outlier. Why is Trump still going to Iowa if he's up 7 and trailing in lots of other places (I think he's ahead there but it's much closer, maybe 2-3 points)

[dspNY]

I think this is an outlier. Why is Trump still going to Iowa if he's up 7 and trailing in lots of other places (I think he's ahead there but it's much closer, maybe 2-3 points)

If this poll said 2-3 then it wouldn't seem so off, but Trump up 7 with Biden only at 41% seems off. It's like they are closer to Trump's number but are way under counting Biden.

Yeah, I think Monmouth's 48-47 Trump is much closer to right and Trump wins the state something like 51-48

[dspNY]

Once again, I think it is a trump lead because the rural vote will narrowly win out but not this large because both candidates have been or will be in the state (Biden on Friday, Trump on Sunday) on the final weekend. That doesn't indicate a wide lead for either candidate

[dspNY]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

No way is IA-1 as red as IA-4. IA-4 is the red district while the other three are swingy or Lean D

[dspNY]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Iowa-01 R+15?! It was only Trump 49% - Clinton 45% in 2016.

That's the outlier part of the poll. Selzer got an extremely trump-heavy part from the 1st district. Recalibrate that to what the 1st district actually is (around even, you can go a point or two either way D or R) and you get a result for the state that makes sense

[dspNY]

Also, if Trump truly is winning Iowa bigly, why is he paying visits to it this weekend?

That's exactly my point. There's no need for Trump to go to Iowa if he's up that much. It would be a waste of his time when there are other larger, close states