NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)

[dspNY]

FL: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (4-way)
Tied at 46 (2-way)

NC: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 (4-way)
Clinton 50, Trump 44 (2-way)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

[dspNY]

NC could be a lot more pivotal than anyone thought. It almost looks like another Virginia in some polls. It was an extra state for Obama in 2012 but could be part of a Clinton firewall

[dspNY]

I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL

NC is behaving a lot like Virginia. Similar trends with lots of college-educated whites and a different type of economy (more service and research based). From what I've heard, Wake County is a disaster for Trump and if he gets crushed there, he can't win statewide

[dspNY]

HB2 has to be a hurricane-force headwind against the GOP in NC right now for NC to be voting 5-6 points to the left of FL

Early vote subsamples:

In FL, 36% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 54-37. Trump is winning those who haven't voted yet 51-42. That's significant because Clinton is banking her vote and giving herself a better chance.

In NC, 29% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 61-33. To make up these deficits, Trump must have a serious ground game on 11/8