NC-Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +1, Clinton +1 (3-way) (user search)
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  NC-Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +1, Clinton +1 (3-way) (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC-Bloomberg/Selzer: Clinton +1, Clinton +1 (3-way)  (Read 2870 times)
dspNY
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« on: October 03, 2016, 01:45:36 PM »
« edited: October 03, 2016, 04:44:30 PM by dspNY »

H2H: Clinton 46, Trump 45
3-way: Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2*

*Stein is not on the ballot in NC

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/north-carolina-poll?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2016, 01:51:01 PM »

Men outnumber women 51/49 in this poll so that makes it even better for Clinton. That's the easiest crosstab to correct for (women are usually between 53-55% of the electorate in a large state)
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2016, 02:10:56 PM »

Romney did not win NC by a landslide or 5-6%. He barely won it with around 1%. 2008 Obama won NC. NC has been very close, the last 2 elections Now it is obvious that the dufus Trump has fallen nationally by 3-4-5% odd maybe. So isn't it obvious NC would shift from +1/+2 Trump to +1/+2/+3 Clinton?

Some of the comments are hilarious & the reasons I call people Super pac trolls. 1-2-3% Margin is no big deal. At any time if Trump keeps his discipline, has strong debates & Hillary screws up or wikileaks reveals something terrible, anytime there can be a 3-4% swing.

If Trump could lose 3-4% in 1 week, then why can he not gain 3-4%? It is clearly that Ohio is tilt Republican at this point, Florida varies from toss-up to tilt Democrat, NC is a toss-up! None of theses states are settled!

The states which tend to have big swings are CO, PA. These states could go from Clinton +1/+2 (Close to a toss-up at best for Trump) to suddenly +11/+12, the later is ideally the margin a Democrat should win with!

Pennsylvania has a very static, inelastic electorate
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dspNY
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Posts: 3,090
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2016, 04:47:31 PM »

I made the point about the 51% male 49% female not being right. Therefore I think this poll understates Clinton by a couple of points
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