European Union House of Reprensentatives

[Tayya]

Hard to do thanks to the multi-party system. Just using actual results isn't really fair with FPTP districts, but a two-party system isn't easy either.

[Tayya]

Alright, I'm trying my hand at Sweden's 8 districts here. I've tried to keep population deviation at three digits, but I stopped bothering about exactl numbers later on so there might be some precinct swaps. Municipal and county integrity has been a priority.



SE-1 (green): Norrland

The entirety of the five northernmost counties that together roughly make the area of Norrland, as well as two municipalities from Dalarna that unfortunately breaks a community of interest. No established party can compete with the Social Democrats here - when current Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt was a MEP here he did very well in some parts (Västerbotten County and western Norrbotten County) but never threatened a Social Democratic victory. A 2-round/IRV system wouldn't exactly help the Left Party either. The likely victor is Jens Nilsson, incumbent Social Democratic MEP from Jämtland, who isn't a strong candidate but still safe.

Safe PES

SE-2 (red): Middle Sweden

This district is made up of most of non-urban Svealand including Västerås and Örebro. Many industrial towns can be found here and they together with the rural lands seal the deal.

Safe PES

SE-3 (light blue): Uppland

A fascinating district including Sweden's fourth largest city, Uppsala, as well as Stockholm's northern suburbs (as well as parts of the city itself) which are usually one the country's bluest areas. The Moderates still lost the district in 2014, but in a FPTP system they can count on support from many voters that currently vote Liberal, even if ALDE runs its own candidate. If the Christian Democrats run together with the Moderates as an EPP ticket it also helps. Still, thanks to the 2014 loss, I'm staying put with the Safe ranking.

Likely EPP

SE-4 (lime): Stockholm South and Central

Most of Stockholm's inner city, its southern suburbs and exurbs. Without a doubt the Swedish Greens' strongest district, but thanks to immigrant-heavy suburbs the Social Democrats would probably still be favored to win. In a 2-round system, though, the likely Green candidate Isabella Lövin - a fisheries policy wonk - will likely have far more crossover appeal than a Social Democratic candidate.

Lean PES - Lean Greens with two-round system.

SE-5 (purple): "The Midwest"

A hodge-podge of places from Karlstad to Jönköping.  Likely the Christian Democrats' strongest district, meaning that they may top a joint EPP ticket. The Social Democrats should still be favored thanks to the rural/small town dominance as well as the industrial belt by Lake Vänern's southern shore,

Likely PES

SE-6 (orange): Gothenburg and Halland

The Gothenburg metropolitan area, Halland County and a smaller part of Skåne County. A relatively strong right-wing district, for sure. With FPTP, all bets are off.

Tossup

SE-7 (dark blue): The East

Östergötland, Kalmar, Kronoberg, Gotland and Blekinge. A possibly competitive district, but all in all red.

Likely PES

SE-8 (yellow): Skåne

The Sweden Democrats will target this district massively, but are unlikely to succeed - especially in a two-round system. Still, the right-wing is decently strong in this one.

Tossup

Best case scenario for the PES is 7-1, worst case is 4-3-1.