SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

That chart isn't really based off any actual issues, but just the candidates' responses. The party clusters' positions are probably decided from relatively small areas of common issue positions.

[Tayya]

Good news for Team Blue: Today's new Sifo poll shows the bloc gap down to 4.5% thanks to S dropping and FP gaining 2%.

Bad news for Team Blue: The red-greens lead by 11.5% in today's Demoskop polls and by ~9-10% in the latest Ipsos and Novus polls.

There was a YouGov poll today as well, but I don't remember the results - no big changes, anyways.

[Tayya]

From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.

Nice concern trolling.

Both SKOP and United Minds (I know...) covered the same period (SKOP a bit earlier as well) and show the gap at ~10%.

Ipsos is a continuation of Synovate which was formerly TEMO, and Novus is an incarnate of what was once the Swedish department of Gallup (and was also the closest poll in the EP elections).

[Tayya]

In the old days Danish pollsters, had a hard time getting DPP right in the polls (usual guessing 2% too low), do Swedish pollsters have the same problem?

Difficult to say. In 2006, most pollsters didn't release SD's numbers separately, but they appear to have been within the margin of error most of the time though erring on the low side (we're talking 1% here). In 2010, essentially the same thing happened, though it's easy to overblow it as Sifo's very last poll somehow had them below 4%. On the other hand, United Minds, the web poll, tended to have SD at over 6 or even 7% in the week leading up to the election.

I expect SD to overperform somewhat, yes, but not more than by 1-1.5%.

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

[Tayya]

I am so INKS!!ing angry right now I thank God I'm not physically nearby anyone.

But seriously, the closing cap is thanks to... C? Approaching 7%? I resign on the bloc gap being way too close for comfort (apparantly the gap closed to 2.9% on the later polling days, but that should be taken with a huge dose of salt - I recall Aftonbladet trying to spin such a statistic as a huge boon for Håkan Juholt when he was elected party leader, an increase that didn't hold until next month) but the internal party numbers are very, very odd and inexplicable. Is it the debates that start to matter? I don't even recall anything special happening in them?

[Tayya]

Bad news for the Red-Greens. Todays new Novus poll supports Sifo's latest results - only a 5,0% difference between the two blocks. In other words, last week's lead has been halved.

A "hung parliament", with neither of the blocks having a majority, seems a foregone conclusion now.

Will this matter if it comes to pass ? I thought Fredrik Reinfeldt already stated that if his alliance falls short of the S-MP-V alliance then he will not make a claim to form a government, which obviously requires support from SD.

Having S and MP alone stronger than the Alliance would help a lot in budget negotiations as the Left could "escape" through voting for their own proposal as long as SD votes for their own.

Also, this gap is close enough that the Alliance can actually pass the Red-Greens - 2.5% in a week is very, very doable, especially with momentum.

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

Neither side is campaigning on tax cuts. Well, ok, the Social Democrats are pledging to cut taxes for seniors. But beyond that.

But how would "not raising taxes" affect you so badly? Given that there is basically no difference between the two sides I don't see how anyone could be massively hurt by any outcome?

I don't give a duck about what they promise now - an Alliance.victory means that the robber barons will keep reigning freely and that the rich will, in the end, get richer at the poors' back.

Re: United Minds: Told you so. God ducking pigheads in the opposition and duck you to all hipster idiots. I'm giving them SO MUCH HELL when this election is over.

[Tayya]

The disturbing thing is that I have no clue at all. The TV interviews, maybe? Or every center-right leaner deciding to pay attention simultaneously?

@Gustaf: To me - and this is obviously a subjective opinion - Sweden will fare worse as a country where the center-right is the norm instead of the center-left. Doesn't matter what policies they pursue, it's about the national consensus.

Though again, we probably lost that battle in the 90's. Sigh.

[Tayya]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

A probable explanation, yes. Unfortunately, 51% of people doing well tends to be enough in a wallet voter system.

[Tayya]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

A probable explanation, yes. Unfortunately, 51% of people doing well tends to be enough in a wallet voter system.

Pretty sure far more than 51% of Swedes are doing well.

My point is that a majority voting with their wallets isn't necessarily what a country needs, but sure.

@Gustav: Oh, I'm doing fine. My parents get a lot more cash to use thanks to income tax cuts, I'm healthy (excepting my cold I'm having), I'm renting a room that I can afford thanks to generous student benefits and loans and I can always go home to my parents.

But I'm afraid to death I'm never going to get a real job, 9-5; that I won't afford a house, and that there's no houses to live in. Meanwhile, tax money's going to crooks and robber barons (even if their actual negative effect on welfare quality is overstated) and our education system and our defense forces are still getting murdered like if they were dissenters and ISIS were in charge. No, the reds were just as useless, but these bums need to be kicked out and get back to reality. It's just time for them to go.

And I'm white, I'm a dude, I'm from a relatively wealthy household, I'm a lone child... what about the people who aren't?

I'm not exactly content with the opposition, but the Alliance wasn't exactly perfect in the beginning. And if they never start, they'll never learn and we'll get stuck with a government that, fundamentally, represents things I find awful, sometimes distasteful - yes, sometimes even hateful.

And I'm just so, so tired of this sh*t.

[Tayya]

Eh, I've given up on defense - and I, for one, welcome our new Russian overlords...

[Tayya]

People, lets not get ahead of ourselves. You're all talking like the Alliance were dominating in these polls. Let's not forget that the combined vote share for M+FP+KD+C is still at an all time low. The government had crushed through their floor, and is now climbing up to end up around their catastrophic 1994 result. Sure, if the trend continues unbroken for the last days, it might get interesting, but so far there's really no big change from what polls were showing last week, a hung parliament with a left-wing plurality.
 

Going by the United Minds poll, the gov't needs to gain 2.1% from team Red-Green in order to be able to form a government. (I'm assuming the opposition parties won't let SD be a factor here.) Assuming that the shift is somewhat late, it might be even less. With positive momentum on their side, that's not that much for team Blue. I'd give them around a 50% chance to squeak by right now.

[Tayya]

Cheese, you're paying for my treatment if that happens.

[Tayya]

According to tabloid Aftonbladet, FI leader Gudrun Schyman will address the crowd at tonight's Pharrell Williams concert in Stockholm, invited by Williams himself according to Schyman.

Game changer or not, the woman knows how to do politics. You have to give her that.

[Tayya]

Förtidsrösta = Early voting, yes.

With regards to the numbers - Wikipedia has accidentally used the number of eligible voters in the County Council elections. For local elections, EU/EES citizens that reside in Sweden as well as non-EU/EES citizens that have resided in Sweden for at least three years are also eligible to vote. The lower number is correct for the Riksdag.