Its the 1980 scenario playing out basically.
2024 - Back to basics base Republican candidate or a hardcore Trumpist gets nominated and gets destroyed
2028 - Reasonable Republican Governor with a good background, experience and pitch makes some gains but falls short.
2032 - The stars finally align for Republicans to win the White House again.
Its only of many possible scenarios but even with that as a baseline, a big variable is when is the next recession/economic problem and what is it manifesting as in terms of impacts. Another is any FP issues or scandals that could cripple the administration is also a factor that could short circuit this timeline.
Yes, those are very big ifs. Too many projections leave no room for Events. Looking at old Atlas threads confirms this. Projections from say, 2005, missed the financial crisis, a 1999 one would miss 9/11 etc, to say nothing of all the trends we got wrong.
Things certainly don't look good for the GOP in the short to medium term, but like you said, in four years we could all be talking about Biden's failed COVID recovery and how much Kamala is going to lose by. *shrug*
