August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[DC Al Fine]

What Scheer Cabinet?

The Shadow Ministers, many of whom endorsed MacKay.

I don't think there's as much of a gulf btw/ MacKay and O'Toole as there was btw/ Christine Elliott and Doug Ford in Ontario in 2018.  That is, those who endorsed MacKay aren't exactly in a grinning-and-bearing-it/plugging-their-nose situation re O'Toole.

Yes. The main thing I'm looking for is the size of the cabinet. Scheer built that ludicrous sized shadow cabinet after the last election in an effort to win support from caucus. I wonder if O'Toole will keep it that way or cut it down to a normal size?

Will O’Toole hold onto Scheer’s Cabinet mostly? And do you guys think he’ll give concessions to both Sloan and Lewis?

There aren't really concessions in leadership races per se. Lewis will run in the next election and almost certainly get a cabinet spot if she wins. We socons will get a few bones throne to us if we are in power, but those aren't really concessions per se. Just the status quo of how Canadian politics are done.

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

Outside of Conservative politics, Stéphane Dion was in cabinet before Trudeau decided to get rid of him.

D'oh. Completely forgot about that.

[DC Al Fine]

The emergence of the millennial generation, the dominance of the Liberals among educated, metropolitan and ethnic minority voters, and the pandemic are all making the Conservative path to victory more and more difficult.

I think that is very true and while some have questioned my statement, I firmly believe Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in the Western world.  I think conservatism faces a much bleaker future in Canada than both the past and elsewhere.  I think urbanization, more university educated, plus millennials is helping to create a permanent left wing majority in Canada.

I won't deny the demographic difficulties the Tories face, but "permanent left wing majority"?! Geez louise, that's some strong rhetoric to use about the party that won the popular vote last time.

Look at what happened to the Tories from 1984-1993, or the Liberals from ca 2002-2011. If "The Tories will go from two hundred seats to two in eight years" or the "The Liberals will go from 50% in the polls to a distant third place in ten years" were actually correct predictions, no matter how implausible they seemed at the time, I'm loathe to rule out something as simple as the Tories managing a simple five point swing against a scandal prone government in a poor economy, much less 'permanent' anything.

[DC Al Fine]

Not just the traditional blue collar vote, increasing Liberal support in the "urban progressive" constituency has hurt the NDP as well.

Yeah, it really threw me for a loop that the NDP lost 5-10% in ridings like University-Rosedale, Parkdale-High Park, and Ottawa Centre last year. It's not like voters there needed to vote Liberal to keep the Tories from winning those seats.

[DC Al Fine]

O'Toole makes a direct appeal to the working class vote:

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1302991683072798721

This is the route the Tories and most right wing parties in the Anglosphere ought to go. As the left moves upscale, the right will need to consolidate the upper working class/petit bourgeois vote.

Andrew Coyne has already slammed the video, so it's probably a good strategy. I enjoy Coyne's columns but a good judge of electoral winners, he is not

[DC Al Fine]

O'Toole has released his shadow cabinet. Some notable posts include:

Defence: James Bezan
Finance: Pierre Poilievre
Foreign Affairs: Michael Chong
Health: Michelle Rempel
Industry: James Cumming
Infrastructure: Andrew Scheer
Intergovernmental Affairs: Chris d'Entremont
Justice: Rob Moore
Labour: Mark Strahl

[DC Al Fine]

O'Toole seems to be the 2020 version of Diefenbaker Toryism.

Yass Queen!

[DC Al Fine]

Steve Paikin interviews Erin O'Toole:

https://www.tvo.org/video/erin-otoole-canadas-new-conservative-party-leader

Well, no one will be able to accuse him of not going after the NDP's working class demographic.

[DC Al Fine]

It's an unfortunate thing about FPTP. If you're a Toronto Tory, rural Alberta Liberal etc, you have to choose between running where you have a local connection and where you can actually win.

At least in Lewis' case, her leadership base should blunt the risk of a serious local challenge.