South African General Election, 2019

[DC Al Fine]

How reliable are South African polls?

[DC Al Fine]

Agang SA probably just pip COPE as the most pathetic party in SA politics tbh.

I wonder if the EFF/DA collaboration at various municipal and provincial levels might be offputting to some of the angry young black men who vote EFF and angry whites who vote DA

I mean the angriest European descendants probably vote for the Afrikaner party

I think there’s at least one DA-EFF-VF+ coalition out there at the municipal level.

But presumably SA is like everywhere else in the world, and no one knows anything about municipal politics.

That and one of the major priorities of all non-dominant parties in a one party plus system can be summarized as "screw the big party"

[DC Al Fine]

A few questions:

1) What share of Whites vote not-DA (VF+ and ANC presumably)

2) How do Coloureds and Asians vote? I assume DA with a big ANC minority?

3) Are there any Black ethnic groups besides that are more likely to vote not-ANC? I'm aware of Zulus voting IFP but are any groups more likely to back DA or EFF?

[DC Al Fine]

Somewhat OT:

1) I understand which areas tended to vote PFP/DP (urban, Anglo, affluent liberals/progressives). Which areas/demographics switched to KP vs stuck with the Nats?

2) Are there any good maps of Apartheid era election results? The only stuff I can find is of the referendum.

[DC Al Fine]

ex DA mayor of Cape Town, Patricia De Lille has set up a new party, called "Good", which I'm sure will be highly relevant next year...

This "Good" movement s seems to be a centrist populist thing, something like the continuation of De LLille's Independent Democrats... isn't it?

Patricia de Lille
@PatriciaDeLille
Started a new movement called @forgoodza
. Activist for GOOD people who believe in a GOOD South Africa

I think I fell in love...


"

Yeah, I wouldn't say she is great by any stretch - but definitely better than most of her old colleagues in the rest of the Cape Town DA. One of the few people who even tried to do something about the extremes of evictions and spatial apartheid in Cape Town (and she is like the second most popular politician in the country after Ramaphosa).

As far as I can tell, the new party hasn't really come up with any policies yet. It will undoubtedly end up as some sort of vehicle to represent coloured people's grievances. Which, given how badly the DA has treated them, and how much it has taken them for granted, is hardly a bad thing.

Under FPTP that would be a disaster, but since they have PR, some competition for the non-black vote will be a good thing. Can't have politicians thinking they own your vote. Now we just need some more effective competition for ANC's vote than Malema.

[DC Al Fine]

Well to be fair, at 0.8% of whites , that result could be one guy answering a question wrong.

[DC Al Fine]

DA is the party for most white people right?

Yes

[DC Al Fine]

What happened to that Inkatha Freedom splinter? They seem to have disappeared and the IFP vaccumed up their votes.