Is New York Trending Repubican

[DC Al Fine]

Its unlikely to continue the R trend.

New York has two areas, Upstate, and The city.

The city has a population of 8.8 Million, upstate 11 Million.

The problem of NY trending R is twofold.

1. The city is growing slugishly, upstate is declining
2. Elasticity

The first point speaks for itself. While NY city is still gaining people, albiet at a sluggish rate, the upstate area is rapidly declining. Its like a part of the rustbelt, old factories, mill towns, etc. NY is going to lose a Congressional seat next census, and that loss is not from NY, but from upstate. While NY city only represents around 40%, it could easily represent 50%, or even 60% in the coming decades.

The people upstate are not just rural Rs, however, they are rural Ds. What does this mean? This means that they share characteristics with the rurals of NE and the rustbelt. They are socially moderate/conservative, but big fans of economic leftism. The decline in Upstate NY can be seen as well in the loss of ME's second district, and the loss of rural NH that helped keep the state above 5% for Obama 2 times. The thing is now, however, that Democrats, especially presidential ones, are tapping into this economic need, and are reflecting the needs of these people well. Its highly probable that these areas will swing heavily back to the Ds, especially since Trump seems to have forgone his economics populism in favor of GOP orthodoxy.

So, will NY trend R? Yes, maybe 2 or 3% overall. Will it trend more than that? Not likely.

everything either trends D or stays the same in your eyes lol

So whats your reasoning then? I always explain my thoughts.

Also, its hard to give a state that is R trending due to the fact that they are losing more members than they are gaining overall. Of course, if the party changes track, then I could name many states that would flip, but they cant keep going the way they are.

FYI, the definition of trend is change in margin in the state vs change in national margin, so unless demographic change is absolutely uniform, something has to be trending GOP, even if things are quite bleak for the right overall.