2018 New Brunswick election

[DC Al Fine]

Only thing I would add is that the People's Alliance leader might win his seat. He barely lost last time, so any slip up by the Tories could give it to him.

[DC Al Fine]

The language issue has completely died down in the last 20 years. McKenna and Lord both took a pragmatic approach to the issue that placated both sides. There's still the odd agitator here and there, but for the most part nobody's looking to reopen that debate.

I can't put a handle on this one this far out. Higgs definitely has the policy chops - he was very much a straight shooter as finance minister and didn't care who he pissed off. If elections were only fought on that, he'd win in a landslide. But he hasn't come across as an effective campaigner, even during the PC leadership race. Gallant is the exact opposite. He had (still has) no discernible policy beyond "do what it takes to get elected".

The Liberals' biggest scandal to date has been the property tax disaster. The province calculates it on behalf of municipalities in NB, and they've switched to an automated GIS-based system that assumed renovations took place that never did, which meant assessments for some home owners almost doubled. The province has spent millions of dollars the last few months in rebates.

The thing that should scare the Liberals is how thin their vote is in anglo ridings, and their plans to keep it are becoming more and more transparent. A recent cabinet shuffle promoted Andrew Harvey (who against all odds won his rural anglo seat by <2%); and Gallant named himself regional minister for the Saint John/Fundy coast area, where 2 of their MLAs won by less than 2% (plus a 3rd they later lost in a byelection). It's also the same reason the Liberals gave Stephen Horsman, their only Fredericton MLA, as many cushy cabinet positions as they could.

As for the smaller parties....David Coon is a shoe-in to get re-elected (I live in his riding). Jennifer McKenzie hasn't announced where she's running yet, but I can't really see her winning anywhere she'd be seen as an outsider.

Kris Austin's seat could go either way. He would have won easily last time if the riding was just the Minto/Chipman area, but the parts of Fredericton attached to his riding didn't give him the time of day. But they are some of the most working-class neighbourhoods of the city, so I can see him taking it with an effective enough campaign. Just not sure if he has it in him.

What issues will Higgs push?

[DC Al Fine]

I went to a friend's wedding in New Brunswick yesterday. When the conversation turned to politics, the guests overwhelmingly supported the Tories. Of course my friend married into a family of church going Baptists, so my sample might be a tad unrepresentative

[DC Al Fine]

That may be the PCs' best chance of winning. The Liberals are still up decently in the polls, but a lot of it seems to be Clinton-style running up the score in their safe Francophone seats.

They have very few safe seats (maybe 1-2) in anglophone regions and won most of them in 2014 by slim margins. The slightest mistake will sink them.

If the race tightened a little bit, I could see the Tories losing  Edmunston-Madawaska Centre but picking up marginal Anglo seats like Carleton-Victoria, Charlotte-Campobello, Fredericton North, and Saint John Harbour. That would give them a slim majority, and its quite conceivable that they could dothat while losing the PV by 5%.

[DC Al Fine]

New Brunswick Baptists supporting the Tories!? huge shoker! (sic)

Truly an unexpected turn of events.

[DC Al Fine]

I doubt it. Looking back, Gallant getting married last weekend and inexplicably releasing a TV attack ad on Higgs should have been a sign of something.

(How'd that be for a honeymoon? A bus trip to Bathurst.)

I told my wife about this and she forbade me from running for office.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, why would Gallant want an election? He doesn't exactly have a massive lead, and the federal party is getting egg on their face right now.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, why would Gallant want an election? He doesn't exactly have a massive lead, and the federal party is getting egg on their face right now.

Over tax changes or Energy East Pipeline or both?  I've heard the cancellation of the Energy East Pipeline is going over well in New Brunswick.  Also the small business tax changes apparently faced more of a backlash in Atlantic Canada than most of the country.  My understanding is business ownership tends to be higher in smaller communities than large ones and in most parts of the country that is a non-issue as rural areas generally vote Tory elsewhere, but in Atlantic Canada they are quite rural yet go Liberal.

I was thinking of tax changes + Morneau's terrible transparency optics, but more generally there are a lot fewer good vibes around the Liberal brand than this time last year.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting federal numbers. The Tories would pick up 5 seats or so, and the NDP would probably win Acadie-Bathurst if they run another Godin.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting federal numbers. The Tories would pick up 5 seats or so, and the NDP would probably win Acadie-Bathurst if they run another Godin.

At 7%, I doubt the latter.

Yeah you're probably right.

[DC Al Fine]

I have a hard time seeing the Tories only winning the three safest seats on a 44-37 split... Especially if the language divide is similar to what it is provincially.

[DC Al Fine]

MQO is out with a poll that for the first time shows the PCs in the lead.  Whether this a trend or a rogue poll we will have to see since if PCs win this would be the third one term government in a row.  Mainstreet research also shows it close by Liberals still slightly ahead but due to how busy they are on the Ontario front they haven't released the full details.  Also this poll shows the federal Tories ahead in New Brunswick too.

Provincial

PC 43%
Liberal 35%
Green 11%
NDP 7%

44% still undecided so obviously a strong potential for the numbers to shift significantly between now and September 24th.

Federal

Conservatives 44%
Liberals 37%
Greens 10%
NDP 7%

Considering how federal and provincial numbers are almost identical I wonder if there is some confusion as this rarely happens, the question is which is causing it.

There's an equivalent poll out for Nova Scotia that has substantially different federal and provincial numbers, so I'd guess it's not confusion.

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet includes the NDP, Conservatives and Greens in their Quebec poll, but doesn't include the People's Alliance in this one

Odd. I guess some pollsters can't use Wikipedia.

[DC Al Fine]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

"Nutty candidates" won't be an issue for a party polling in single digits in a province so small. The Libs and PCs aren't going to waste time doing oppo research on them.

Agreed. A lot of people are treating this like the Ontario or BC NDP, when the more relevant comparison is to the Green Party.

[DC Al Fine]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Do you think People's Alliance will win a seat this time?

[DC Al Fine]

In terms of momentum and media coverage the NDP might as well be the 5th party. The People's Alliance has even passed them.

Indeed; and if the recent released polls actually probed for the PANB, they would find that the NDP was polling in fifth too. Must frustrate you when these Toronto firms swoop in and can't poll the province properly, eh?

It's hit or miss even out east. CRA and MQO are based in Halifax and only the former asks about PA -.- How friggin hard is it to check Wikipedia?!

[DC Al Fine]

Grenier's projector has the People's Alliance at 7%

[DC Al Fine]

Excellent profiles. I learned a lot. Looking forward to the rest of them.

[DC Al Fine]

In the debate Higgs accused Gallant of offering him either minister or deputy minister of finance after the 2014 election, which Gallant denied. Higgs signed an affidavit and said he has texts. Unsure what kinda impact this has.

Interesting that he brought it up live in a debate instead of having a press conference.

[DC Al Fine]

How did PA and Green leaders do?

[DC Al Fine]

The random PC communities/ridings in otherwise Liberal Acadia are fascinating, if not puzzling. Two neighbour towns vote differently due to a rivalry? wtf?

Welcome to the tribal world of east coast politics.

This.

[DC Al Fine]

Looking at how Saint-Quentin votes federally, and yup, in typical Atlantic Canadian fashion, when they decide they don't want to vote Conservative, they vote NDP.

Aren't are politics glorious

[DC Al Fine]

Also, weird poll. Why is Saint John lumped in with the rest of New Brunswick? It's the province's second largest city.

The 'rest of NB' numbers are useless, since it covers such a diverse region.

My recollection from last years provincial election in NS was that the geographical splits were terrible all around.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm starting to think that I'm the only pollster in the country that gives a damn about geography at all.

Turns out Mainstreet's wasn't that bad... but Forums was ing horrendous.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm guessing using the cube root model:

Lib: 28
PC: 17
Green: 2
PA: 2

I'm usually spectacularly wrong, so given my projection, you should all bet on a Tory majority